NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1SJ

22-18-3

18-14-10

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLWed, Jan 7FinalSeriesSJ wins series 2-1VegasLA -230

Recap · NHL

an Jose Sharks went into Los Angeles Kings and beat them, 4–3 in overtime.

SJ +1.5 cashed (LA lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SJ · top performer

Macklin Celebrini

C · #71

3Points

—

SOG

LA · top performer

Kevin Fiala

LW · #22

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

SJ22-18-3

LA18-14-10

SJ22-18-3LA18-14-10

22-18-3

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

18-14-10

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

SJ wins series 2-1

Oct 29

LA4@

SJ3

Nov 21

LA3@

SJ4

Jan 8

SJ4@

LA3today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SJ+19034%

LA-23070%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LA -1.5↗SpreadBet LA -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SJ beat LA 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
SJ	0	1	2	1	4
LA	0	1	2	0	3

Period scoring

SJ won 1 · LA won 0

Play-by-play · 308 plays

period

event

player

OT·3:08
Game End
SJ 4·LA 3
OT·3:08
End of OT
SJ 4·LA 3
OT·3:08
William Eklund Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (43)
·
SJ 4·LA 3
OT·3:01
Giveaway by Adrian Kempe
SJ 3·LA 3
OT·2:11
Macklin Celebrini faceoff won against Adrian Kempe
·
SJ 3·LA 3
OT·2:11
Goalie Stopped
SJ 3·LA 3
OT·2:09
Sam Dickinson Wrist Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
SJ 3·LA 3
OT·1:38
Quinton Byfield Wrist Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov
·
SJ 3·LA 3
OT·1:28
Takeaway by Dmitry Orlov
SJ 3·LA 3
OT·0:00
Adrian Kempe faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
SJ 3·LA 3
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
SJ 3·LA 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
SJ 3·LA 3
3rd·19:51
Takeaway by Brandt Clarke
SJ 3·LA 3
3rd·19:34
Joel Edmundson shot blocked by Pavol Regenda
·
SJ 3·LA 3
3rd·19:16
Pavol Regenda hit Joel Edmundson
·
SJ 3·LA 3
3rd·19:00
Alex Turcotte faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
SJ 3·LA 3
3rd·19:00
Off-side
SJ 3·LA 3
3rd·18:53
Alex Turcotte faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
SJ 3·LA 3
3rd·18:53
Rink Repair
SJ 3·LA 3
3rd·18:53
Macklin Celebrini Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: none
SJ 3·LA 3
3rd·18:49
Takeaway by Macklin Celebrini
SJ 2·LA 3
3rd·18:45
Tyler Toffoli Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
SJ 2·LA 3
3rd·18:28
William Eklund shot blocked by Quinton Byfield
·
SJ 2·LA 3
3rd·18:06
Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Quinton Byfield
·
SJ 2·LA 3
3rd·18:06
Puck in Netting
SJ 2·LA 3
3rd·18:05
Macklin Celebrini shot blocked by Mikey Anderson
·
SJ 2·LA 3
3rd·17:50
Macklin Celebrini faceoff won against Quinton Byfield
·
SJ 2·LA 3
3rd·17:50
Alex Laferriere Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Joel Edmundson (14), Cody Ceci (7)
· ·
SJ 2·LA 3
3rd·17:46
Alex Laferriere shot blocked by Timothy Liljegren
·
SJ 2·LA 2
3rd·16:07
Alex Turcotte Deflected Above Crossbar
·
SJ 2·LA 2

Team stats

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

LA -1.5·O/U 6.5·SJ +190/LA -230

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 3 skaters with EDGE

Warren FoegeleOTT · LW
SKATE MPH22.786
Timothy LiljegrenWSH · D
SKATE MPH22.685

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · LA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+190

Close price

+190

Open no-vig

33.1%

Close no-vig

33.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

LA vs SJ.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

138

projections · 135 high confidence

Shots on goal

Macklin CelebriniSJ
3.4± 1.1high
Alex LaferriereLA
3.0± 1.6high
Quinton ByfieldLA
3.0± 2.2high

Goals

Macklin CelebriniSJ
0.6± 0.8high
Adrian KempeLA
0.5± 0.7high
Quinton ByfieldLA
0.4± 0.7high

Points

Macklin CelebriniSJ
1.4± 1.4high
William EklundSJ
0.9± 1.1high
Alex LaferriereLA
0.8± 0.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands