NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4TOR

20-17-2

TOR

18-15-6

Historical comparables

No comparable NHL games in the historical pool yet.

NHLTue, Dec 30FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasNJ -142

Recap · NHL

oronto Maple Leafs held off New Jersey Devils, 4–0.

TOR +1.5 cashed (NJ lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NJ · top performer

Jesper Bratt

LW · #63

0Points

—

SOG

TOR · top performer

Bobby McMann

C · #74

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

NJ20-17-2

TOR18-15-6

NJ20-17-2TOR18-15-6

20-17-2

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

TOR

18-15-6

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Oct 21

NJ5@

TOR2

Dec 31

NJ0@

TOR4today

Mar 5

TOR3@

NJ4

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NJ -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NJ-14259%

TOR+12045%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NJ -1.5↗SpreadBet NJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TOR beat NJ 4-0.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NJ	0	0	0	0
TOR	1	1	2	4

Period scoring

NJ won 0 · TOR won 3

TOR

Play-by-play · 295 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
NJ 0·TOR 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NJ 0·TOR 4
3rd·19:54
Nicholas Robertson Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
NJ 0·TOR 4
3rd·19:04
Dawson Mercer faceoff won against Jacob Quillan
·
NJ 0·TOR 4
3rd·19:04
Icing
NJ 0·TOR 4
3rd·18:02
Philippe Myers Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
NJ 0·TOR 4
3rd·18:02
Giveaway by Dougie Hamilton
NJ 0·TOR 4
3rd·17:18
Troy Stecher shot blocked by Paul Cotter
· ·
NJ 0·TOR 4
3rd·17:01
Scott Laughton faceoff won against Luke Glendening
·
NJ 0·TOR 4
3rd·17:01
Matthew Knies Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (21), Nicolas Roy (10)
· ·
NJ 0·TOR 4
3rd·16:36
John Tavares Wrist Shot High and Wide Left
NJ 0·TOR 3
3rd·16:20
Nico Hischier faceoff won against John Tavares
·
NJ 0·TOR 3
3rd·16:20
Goalie Stopped
NJ 0·TOR 3
3rd·16:18
Jesper Bratt Snap Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
NJ 0·TOR 3
3rd·15:24
Scott Laughton faceoff won against Nico Hischier
·
NJ 0·TOR 3
3rd·15:24
Goalie Stopped
NJ 0·TOR 3
3rd·15:22
Jesper Bratt Snap Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
NJ 0·TOR 3
3rd·15:21
Nico Hischier shot blocked by Jake McCabe
·
NJ 0·TOR 3
3rd·15:10
Nico Hischier faceoff won against Scott Laughton
·
NJ 0·TOR 3
3rd·15:10
Timeout - Visitor
NJ 0·TOR 3
3rd·15:10
Puck in Netting
NJ 0·TOR 3
3rd·15:08
Stefan Noesen Slap Shot Above Crossbar
·
NJ 0·TOR 3
3rd·14:48
Jesper Bratt shot blocked by Jake McCabe
·
NJ 0·TOR 3
3rd·14:35
Luke Hughes Wrist Shot Wide Right
· ·
NJ 0·TOR 3
3rd·14:19
Scott Laughton faceoff won against Nico Hischier
·
NJ 0·TOR 3
3rd·14:19
Matthew Knies Hooking against Jack Hughes
· ·
NJ 0·TOR 3
3rd·14:04
Jack Hughes shot blocked by Jake McCabe
· ·
NJ 0·TOR 3
3rd·13:41
Dawson Mercer hit Jake McCabe
·
NJ 0·TOR 3
3rd·13:39
John Tavares faceoff won against Nico Hischier
·
NJ 0·TOR 3
3rd·13:39
Goalie Stopped
NJ 0·TOR 3

Team stats

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

NJ -1.5·O/U 5.5·NJ -142/TOR +120

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 skaters with EDGE

Bobby McMannSEA · C
SKATE MPH24.399
Calle JarnkrokTOR · C
SHOT MPH94.596
Philippe MyersTOR · D
SHOT MPH99.395
Jake McCabeTOR · D
DIST MI253.292
Morgan RiellyTOR · D
BURSTS7190

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+120

Close price

+120

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

TOR vs NJ.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 111 high confidence

Shots on goal

Jack HughesNJ
4.3± 1.7high
Auston MatthewsTOR
3.6± 2.5high
Timo MeierNJ
3.3± 3.0high

Goals

Jack HughesNJ
0.6± 0.8high
John TavaresTOR
0.5± 0.7high
William NylanderTOR
0.5± 0.7high

Points

Jack HughesNJ
1.6± 1.7high
William NylanderTOR
1.2± 1.4high
Jesper BrattNJ
1.0± 1.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands