NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1CGY

CGY

19-22-4

PIT

21-13-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Jan 10FinalSeriesCGY leads series 1-0VegasPIT -148

Recap · NHL

algary Flames went into Pittsburgh Penguins and beat them, 2–1.

CGY +1.5 cashed (PIT lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CGY · top performer

Mikael Backlund

C · #11

1Points

—

SOG

PIT · top performer

Egor Chinakhov

RW · #59

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

CGY19-22-4

PIT21-13-9

CGY19-22-4PIT21-13-9

CGY

19-22-4

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

PIT

21-13-9

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

CGY leads series 1-0

Jan 10

CGY2@

PIT1today

Jan 22

PIT4@

CGY1

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PIT -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CGY+12445%

PIT-14860%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗

Line movement · 14 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CGY beat PIT 2-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CGY	1	0	1	2
PIT	0	1	0	1

Period scoring

CGY won 2 · PIT won 1

CGY

PIT

Play-by-play · 297 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CGY 2·PIT 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CGY 2·PIT 1
3rd·19:54
Erik Karlsson shot blocked by MacKenzie Weegar
·
CGY 2·PIT 1
3rd·19:52
Giveaway by Evgeni Malkin
CGY 2·PIT 1
3rd·19:47
Anthony Mantha Wrist Shot saved by Devin Cooley
·
CGY 2·PIT 1
3rd·19:24
Giveaway by Kris Letang
CGY 2·PIT 1
3rd·18:59
Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Sidney Crosby
·
CGY 2·PIT 1
3rd·18:59
Timeout - Home
CGY 2·PIT 1
3rd·18:59
Goalie Stopped
CGY 2·PIT 1
3rd·18:58
Anthony Mantha Tip-In saved by Devin Cooley
·
CGY 2·PIT 1
3rd·18:25
Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Mikael Backlund
·
CGY 2·PIT 1
3rd·18:25
Goalie Stopped
CGY 2·PIT 1
3rd·18:22
Evgeni Malkin shot blocked by Kevin Bahl
·
CGY 2·PIT 1
3rd·18:14
Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Mikael Backlund
·
CGY 2·PIT 1
3rd·18:14
Puck in Crowd
CGY 2·PIT 1
3rd·18:10
Sidney Crosby shot blocked by Yan Kuznetsov
·
CGY 2·PIT 1
3rd·17:16
MacKenzie Weegar hit Ben Kindel
·
CGY 2·PIT 1
3rd·16:56
Blake Lizotte faceoff won against Mikael Backlund
·
CGY 2·PIT 1
3rd·16:56
Puck in Netting
CGY 2·PIT 1
3rd·16:53
Nazem Kadri shot blocked by Jack St. Ivany
·
CGY 2·PIT 1
3rd·16:44
Rasmus Andersson shot blocked by Connor Dewar
·
CGY 2·PIT 1
3rd·15:35
Noel Acciari faceoff won against Joel Farabee
·
CGY 2·PIT 1
3rd·15:35
TV Timeout
CGY 2·PIT 1
3rd·15:35
Brett Kulak Tripping against Connor Zary
·
CGY 2·PIT 1
3rd·15:32
Nazem Kadri Tip-In saved by Arturs Silovs
·
CGY 2·PIT 1
3rd·15:14
Jonathan Huberdeau shot blocked by Kris Letang
·
CGY 2·PIT 1
3rd·15:12
MacKenzie Weegar Slap Shot saved by Arturs Silovs
·
CGY 2·PIT 1
3rd·15:04
Yan Kuznetsov Wrist Shot saved by Arturs Silovs
·
CGY 2·PIT 1
3rd·14:53
Sidney Crosby hit Yegor Sharangovich
·
CGY 2·PIT 1
3rd·14:49
MacKenzie Weegar shot blocked by Brett Kulak
·
CGY 2·PIT 1

Team stats

CGY

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

PIT -1.5·O/U 6.5·CGY +124/PIT -148

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE

Egor ChinakhovPIT · RW
SHOT MPH94.799
Erik KarlssonPIT · D
SKATE MPH22.897
Yan KuznetsovCGY · D
SHOT MPH100.297
Rasmus AnderssonVGK · D
DIST MI54.196
Mikael BacklundCGY · C
SHOT MPH93.594

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-148

Close price

-148

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

57.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

PIT vs CGY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

141

projections · 117 high confidence

Shots on goal

Rickard RakellPIT
3.0± 2.1high
Blake ColemanCGY
2.7± 1.6high
Sidney CrosbyPIT
2.7± 1.7high

Goals

Evgeni MalkinPIT
0.5± 1.0high
Blake ColemanCGY
0.4± 0.7high
Morgan FrostCGY
0.4± 0.7high

Points

Evgeni MalkinPIT
1.1± 1.4high
Sidney CrosbyPIT
1.1± 1.1high
Matt CoronatoCGY
0.8± 0.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands