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FINAL+4MTL
PIT

PIT

14-11-9

04
MTL

MTL

19-12-4

Historical comparables

Historical comparables

No comparable NHL games in the historical pool yet.

NHLSat, Dec 20FinalSeriesMTL leads series 2-0VegasMTL -130

Recap · NHL

ontreal Canadiens held off Pittsburgh Penguins, 4–0.

MTL -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PIT · top performer

PIT
Noel Acciari

Noel Acciari

C · #55

0Points

0

G

0

A

—

SOG

MTL · top performer

MTL
Josh Anderson

Josh Anderson

RW · #17

2Points

2

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Pittsburgh Penguins at Montreal Canadiens · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
0
4
PIT14-11-9MTL19-12-4
PIT

PIT

14-11-9

0
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
MTL

MTL

19-12-4

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

PIM

6

Season series

MTL leads series 2-0

Dec 12MTLMTL4@PITPIT2
Dec 21PITPIT0@MTLMTL4today
Dec 22MTLMTL3@PITPIT4

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MTL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PITPIT+11048%
MTLMTL-13057%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MTL beat PIT 4-0.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
PIT0000
MTL2114

Period scoring

PIT won 0 · MTL won 3

0
2

1

0
1

2

0
1

3

PIT
MTL

Play-by-play · 291 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    PIT 0·MTL 4

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    PIT 0·MTL 4

  3. 3rd·19:42

    Arber Xhekaj hit Thomas Novak

    ·

    PIT 0·MTL 4

  4. 3rd·19:36

    Giveaway by Joe Veleno

    PIT 0·MTL 4

  5. 3rd·19:27

    Takeaway by Joe Veleno

    PIT 0·MTL 4

  6. 3rd·19:07

    Connor Clifton shot blocked by Anthony Mantha

    ·

    PIT 0·MTL 4

  7. 3rd·19:03

    Thomas Novak Wrap-around saved by Jacob Fowler

    ·

    PIT 0·MTL 4

  8. 3rd·19:00

    Anthony Mantha Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    PIT 0·MTL 4

  9. 3rd·18:50

    Thomas Novak Snap Shot saved by Jacob Fowler

    ·

    PIT 0·MTL 4

  10. 3rd·18:03

    Owen Beck faceoff won against Kevin Hayes

    ·

    PIT 0·MTL 4

  11. 3rd·18:03

    Icing

    PIT 0·MTL 4

  12. 3rd·17:55

    Connor Dewar Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    PIT 0·MTL 4

  13. 3rd·17:47

    Kevin Hayes Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    PIT 0·MTL 4

  14. 3rd·17:46

    Noel Acciari hit Alexandre Carrier

    ·

    PIT 0·MTL 4

  15. 3rd·17:42

    Owen Beck faceoff won against Kevin Hayes

    ·

    PIT 0·MTL 4

  16. 3rd·17:42

    Goalie Stopped

    PIT 0·MTL 4

  17. 3rd·17:39

    Connor Clifton Snap Shot saved by Jacob Fowler

    ·

    PIT 0·MTL 4

  18. 3rd·17:34

    Ryan Shea Slap Shot saved by Jacob Fowler

    ·

    PIT 0·MTL 4

  19. 3rd·17:02

    Ben Kindel faceoff won against Owen Beck

    ·

    PIT 0·MTL 4

  20. 3rd·17:02

    Josh Anderson Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none

    PIT 0·MTL 4

  21. 3rd·17:00

    Giveaway by Kris Letang

    PIT 0·MTL 3

  22. 3rd·16:50

    Oliver Kapanen shot blocked by Rickard Rakell

    ·

    PIT 0·MTL 3

  23. 3rd·16:46

    Juraj Slafkovský Snap Shot Wide Right

    PIT 0·MTL 3

  24. 3rd·16:40

    Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Oliver Kapanen

    ·

    PIT 0·MTL 3

  25. 3rd·16:40

    Icing

    PIT 0·MTL 3

  26. 3rd·16:19

    Juraj Slafkovský Snap Shot Hit Right Post

    PIT 0·MTL 3

  27. 3rd·16:11

    Josh Anderson Snap Shot Wide Right

    PIT 0·MTL 3

  28. 3rd·15:54

    Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Oliver Kapanen

    ·

    PIT 0·MTL 3

  29. 3rd·15:54

    Puck Frozen - Goalie

    PIT 0·MTL 3

  30. 3rd·15:42

    Erik Karlsson shot blocked by Joseph Veleno

    ·

    PIT 0·MTL 3

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

MTL

Home

31

Shots

21

0.0

PCT

100.0

2

PIM

6

28

Faceoffs W

18

13

Blocks

16

20

Giveaways

8

4

Takeaways

5

Betting line

MTL -1.5·O/U 6.5·PIT +110/MTL -130

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Lane HutsonMTL · D
    DIST MI71.899+
  • Josh AndersonMTL · RW
    BURSTS7699+
  • Mike MathesonMTL · D
    DIST MI62.999
  • Cole CaufieldMTL · RW
    DIST MI56.699
  • Arber XhekajMTL · D
    SHOT MPH98.598

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · MTL favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MTL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MTL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MTL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-130

Close price

-130

Open no-vig

54.3%

Close no-vig

54.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

MTL vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

141

projections · 117 high confidence

Shots on goal

  • Rickard RakellPIT
    3.0± 2.1high
  • Cole CaufieldMTL
    2.8± 1.4high
  • Sidney CrosbyPIT
    2.7± 1.7high

Goals

  • Cole CaufieldMTL
    0.5± 0.5high
  • Evgeni MalkinPIT
    0.5± 1.0high
  • Alex NewhookMTL
    0.4± 0.7high

Points

  • Evgeni MalkinPIT
    1.1± 1.4high
  • Sidney CrosbyPIT
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Cole CaufieldMTL
    0.9± 0.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR