NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1PIT

PIT

20-12-9

CBJ

18-16-7

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSun, Jan 4FinalSeriesPIT leads series 2-1VegasCBJ -130

Recap · NHL

ittsburgh Penguins went into Columbus Blue Jackets and beat them, 5–4 in overtime.

PIT +1.5 cashed (CBJ lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PIT · top performer

Sidney Crosby

C · #87

2Points

—

SOG

CBJ · top performer

Kirill Marchenko

RW · #86

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

PIT20-12-9

CBJ18-16-7

PIT20-12-9CBJ18-16-7

PIT

20-12-9

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

CBJ

18-16-7

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

PIT leads series 2-1

Oct 25

CBJ5@

PIT4

Nov 29

PIT4@

CBJ3

Jan 4

PIT5@

CBJ4today

Jan 18

CBJ4@

PIT3

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CBJ -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PIT+11048%

CBJ-13057%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CBJ -1.5↗SpreadBet CBJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PIT beat CBJ 5-4.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
PIT	1	1	2	1	5
CBJ	3	1	0	0	4

Period scoring

PIT won 2 · CBJ won 1

PIT

CBJ

Play-by-play · 353 plays

period

event

player

OT·2:22
Game End
PIT 5·CBJ 4
OT·2:22
End of OT
PIT 5·CBJ 4
OT·2:22
Sidney Crosby Goal (24) Backhand, assists: Erik Karlsson (28), Yegor Chinakhov (4)
· ·
PIT 5·CBJ 4
OT·1:30
Ivan Provorov Snap Shot Wide Left
·
PIT 4·CBJ 4
OT·1:19
Charlie Coyle faceoff won against Sidney Crosby
·
PIT 4·CBJ 4
OT·1:19
Icing
PIT 4·CBJ 4
OT·1:10
Bryan Rust Wrist Shot saved by Jet Greaves
·
PIT 4·CBJ 4
OT·0:28
Giveaway by Ben Kindel
PIT 4·CBJ 4
OT·0:00
Ben Kindel faceoff won against Adam Fantilli
·
PIT 4·CBJ 4
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
PIT 4·CBJ 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
PIT 4·CBJ 4
3rd·19:58
Noel Acciari Snap Shot Wide Right
·
PIT 4·CBJ 4
3rd·19:46
Noel Acciari faceoff won against Charlie Coyle
·
PIT 4·CBJ 4
3rd·19:46
Rickard Rakell Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Mantha (15), Sidney Crosby (23)
· ·
PIT 4·CBJ 4
3rd·19:35
Erik Karlsson Snap Shot saved by Jet Greaves
·
PIT 3·CBJ 4
3rd·19:32
Giveaway by Zach Werenski
PIT 3·CBJ 4
3rd·19:18
Rickard Rakell shot blocked by Zach Werenski
·
PIT 3·CBJ 4
3rd·19:13
Rickard Rakell Tip-In Wide Left
·
PIT 3·CBJ 4
3rd·18:49
Sidney Crosby shot blocked by Charlie Coyle
·
PIT 3·CBJ 4
3rd·18:11
Charlie Coyle hit Anthony Mantha
·
PIT 3·CBJ 4
3rd·17:48
Denton Mateychuk shot blocked by Erik Karlsson
·
PIT 3·CBJ 4
3rd·17:38
Kirill Marchenko Tip-In saved by Arturs Silovs
·
PIT 3·CBJ 4
3rd·17:14
Thomas Novak faceoff won against Adam Fantilli
·
PIT 3·CBJ 4
3rd·17:14
Off-side
PIT 3·CBJ 4
3rd·16:32
Ben Kindel faceoff won against Brendan Gaunce
·
PIT 3·CBJ 4
3rd·16:32
Goalie Stopped
PIT 3·CBJ 4
3rd·16:31
Mathieu Olivier Snap Shot saved by Arturs Silovs
·
PIT 3·CBJ 4
3rd·16:06
Boone Jenner shot blocked by Parker Wotherspoon
·
PIT 3·CBJ 4
3rd·16:03
Charlie Coyle faceoff won against Sidney Crosby
·
PIT 3·CBJ 4
3rd·16:03
Icing
PIT 3·CBJ 4

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

CBJ

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

CBJ -1.5·O/U 6.5·PIT +110/CBJ -130

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE

Ivan ProvorovCBJ · D
DIST MI299.999+
Egor ChinakhovPIT · RW
SHOT MPH94.799
Kirill MarchenkoCBJ · RW
BURSTS30199
Zach WerenskiCBJ · D
DIST MI289.198
Erik KarlssonPIT · D
SKATE MPH22.897

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · CBJ favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CBJ win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CBJ win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CBJ win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-130

Close price

-130

Open no-vig

54.3%

Close no-vig

54.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

CBJ vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

138

projections · 123 high confidence

Shots on goal

Zach WerenskiCBJ
3.4± 2.5high
Rickard RakellPIT
3.0± 2.1high
Kirill MarchenkoCBJ
2.8± 1.6high

Goals

Evgeni MalkinPIT
0.5± 1.0high
Adam FantilliCBJ
0.3± 0.5high
Boone JennerCBJ
0.3± 0.5high

Points

Evgeni MalkinPIT
1.1± 1.4high
Sidney CrosbyPIT
1.1± 1.1high
Kirill MarchenkoCBJ
0.8± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands