Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NY at CLE?

The model favors NY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+13NY

53-29

121108

CLE

52-30

NBASat, May 23FinalSeriesNY wins series 2-1VegasCLE -3.5

NY · top performer

Mikal Bridges

G · #25

21.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CLE · top performer

Jarrett Allen

C · #31

16.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowNY ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 9pp · 2nd Quarter · 12:00

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. AnunobyF · #8	31	21	6-10	3-4	6-6	+11	7	4
K. TownsC · #32	36	13	4-9	1-3	4-4	+23	8	7
J. HartG · #3	35	12	5-12	2-7	—	+3	9	5
M. BridgesG · #25	39	22	11-15	0-1	—	+19	6	2
J. BrunsonG · #11	41	30	10-19	0-4	10-12	+15	3	6
Bench
M. RobinsonC · #23	9	2	1-1	—	—	-4	3	0
J. ClarksonG · #00	3	0	—	—	—	-5	0	0
L. ShametG · #44	28	14	4-5	4-5	2-3	+5	1	3
J. AlvaradoG · #5	4	2	1-3	0-2	—	-3	0	0
M. McBrideG · #2	14	5	1-3	1-2	2-2	+1	0	0
Team		121	43-77	11-28	24-27		37	27
DNP: J. Sochan, P. Dadiet, M. Diawara, A. Hukporti, T. Kolek

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. WadeF · #32	17	0	0-1	0-1	—	-1	2	1
J. AllenC · #31	36	17	7-9	—	3-4	-14	7	0
E. MobleyC · #4	36	24	10-18	1-6	3-4	-21	6	2
J. HardenG · #1	41	19	8-15	1-7	2-3	-8	5	5
D. MitchellG · #45	38	23	9-21	3-10	2-6	-22	1	4
Bench
D. SchroderG · #8	9	3	1-1	1-1	—	+2	0	2
M. StrusG · #2	31	13	4-12	4-11	1-1	-3	7	6
S. MerrillG · #5	24	6	2-5	2-4	—	-1	3	1
J. TysonG · #20	9	3	1-2	0-1	1-1	+3	3	1
Team		108	42-84	12-41	12-19		34	22
DNP: L. Nance Jr., N. Tomlin, T. Bryant, C. Porter Jr., K. Ellis, T. Proctor

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

43-77

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

42-84

FG %

11-28

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-41

24-27

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

12-19

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

NY leads series 3-0

May 20

CLE104@

NY115

May 22

CLE93@

NY109

May 24

NY121@

CLE108today

May 26

NY130@

CLE93

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

216.5

Defensive · -9.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NY+12045%

CLE-14259%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -3.5↗SpreadBet CLE -3.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

+1.0 since open

Total

216.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NY beat CLE 121-108. M. Bridges led with 22 PTS, 6 REB, 2 AST. NY outscored the other side 37-27 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CLE vs NY

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NYstarters 81% of pts

Starters(5)

98 PTS · 33 REB · 24 AST

GS 94

Bench(5)

23 PTS · 4 REB · 3 AST

GS 15

CLEstarters 77% of pts

Starters(5)

83 PTS · 21 REB · 12 AST

GS 51

Bench(4)

25 PTS · 13 REB · 10 AST

GS 23

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

NY1st Quarter · 3:29 · 29-19

+6pp→ 80% WP

Landry Shamet · makes 22-foot running jump shot (Mikal Bridges assists)

NY2nd Quarter · 12:00 · 37-27

+9pp→ 85% WP

Jaylon Tyson · enters the game for Max Strus

NY3rd Quarter · 11:46 · 63-54

+7pp→ 82% WP

OG Anunoby · makes 27-foot three point jumper (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NY	37	23	31	30	121
CLE	27	27	28	26	108

Period scoring

NY won 3 · CLE won 1

Towns 11

Mitchell 7

Anunoby 7

Tyson 11

Brunson 12

Mobley 11

Shamet 11

Mobley 8

CLE

Shooting comparison

CLE

56%

43-77

50%

42-84

39%

11-28

3PT

29%

12-41

89%

24-27

63%

12-19

Play-by-play · 444 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NY 121·CLE 108
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NY 121·CLE 108
Q4·17.4
OG Anunoby defensive rebound
NY 121·CLE 108
Q4·19.6
Donovan Mitchell misses 25-foot three point jumper
NY 121·CLE 108
Q4·25.3
Jalen Brunson makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 121·CLE 108
Q4·25.3
Jalen Brunson makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 120·CLE 108
Q4·25.3
Sam Merrill personal foul
NY 119·CLE 108
Q4·30.2
Evan Mobley makes driving layup (Max Strus assists)
·
NY 119·CLE 108
Q4·35.9
Jalen Brunson makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 119·CLE 106
Q4·35.9
Knicks offensive team rebound
NY 118·CLE 106
Q4·35.9
Jalen Brunson misses free throw 1 of 2
NY 118·CLE 106
Q4·35.9
Max Strus personal foul
NY 118·CLE 106
Q4·38.9
OG Anunoby offensive rebound
NY 118·CLE 106
Q4·41.5
Josh Hart misses 32-foot three point jumper
NY 118·CLE 106
Q4·57.5
Josh Hart defensive rebound
NY 118·CLE 106
Q4·59.5
Evan Mobley misses driving floating jump shot
NY 118·CLE 106
Q4·1:03
Mikal Bridges out of bounds bad pass turnover
NY 118·CLE 106
Q4·1:04
James Harden bad pass turnover (Mikal Bridges steals)
·
NY 118·CLE 106
Q4·1:04
Max Strus makes free throw flagrant 1 of 1
NY 118·CLE 106
Q4·1:04
(01:04) [Knicks] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)
NY 118·CLE 105
Q4·1:04
Josh Hart flagrant foul type 1
NY 118·CLE 105
Q4·1:04
Max Strus makes 25-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)
·
NY 118·CLE 105
Q4·1:09
Evan Mobley defensive rebound
NY 118·CLE 102
Q4·1:11
Jalen Brunson misses driving floating jump shot
NY 118·CLE 102
Q4·1:25
Donovan Mitchell bad pass turnover (Jalen Brunson steals)
·
NY 118·CLE 102
Q4·1:29
Landry Shamet bad pass turnover (Donovan Mitchell steals)
·
NY 118·CLE 102
Q4·1:43
Josh Hart defensive rebound
NY 118·CLE 102
Q4·1:45
Sam Merrill misses 25-foot three point jumper
NY 118·CLE 102
Q4·1:49
Josh Hart enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns
·
NY 118·CLE 102
Q4·1:49
Sam Merrill enters the game for Jarrett Allen
·
NY 118·CLE 102

Betting line

CLE -3.5·O/U 216.5·NY +120/CLE -142

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ew York Knicks went into Cleveland Cavaliers and beat them, 121–108.

NY +3.5 cashed (CLE lost outright). Total cleared the 216.5 OVER by 12.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Jalen BrunsonNY · G
TOUCHES89.699
Jarrett AllenCLE · C
CONT9.899
Josh HartNY · G
DEFL4.198
Donovan MitchellCLE · G
USG%31.998
Evan MobleyCLE · C
CONT9.498

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

21.5%

ensemble · NY favored

Elo Static
21.9%
P(CLE win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
18.6%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
24.1%
P(CLE win)
32%
weight

Disagreement

2.24 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-2.54

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+102

Close price

+114

Open no-vig

47.4%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NY at CLE?: The model favors NY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+34.4pp

best edge · NY · DraftKings

★ best

+120DraftKings

edge +34.4pp · implied 43.7%

CLE

no live price

Book	NY	CLE	Best edge
DraftKings	+120★	-142	+34.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CLE vs NY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Donovan MitchellCLE
27.5± 7.3high
Jalen BrunsonNY
27.4± 9.6high
James HardenCLE
19.6± 6.6high

Rebounds

Karl-Anthony TownsNY
10.8± 3.1high
Josh HartNY
8.4± 3.0high
Evan MobleyCLE
8.0± 3.5high

Assists

Jalen BrunsonNY
6.2± 3.2high
James HardenCLE
5.9± 2.8high
Josh HartNY
4.6± 1.9high

Blocks

Evan MobleyCLE
2.1± 1.3high
Jarrett AllenCLE
1.3± 0.7high
OG AnunobyNY
1.0± 1.0high

Steals

Donovan MitchellCLE
1.5± 1.8high
Josh HartNY
1.5± 1.4high
OG AnunobyNY
1.5± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

CLE

55.9%

Effective FG%

54.4

55.6%

48.0%

FG%

47.0

47.7%

116.4

PPG

114.9

117.4

27.0

Assists / G

25.0

27.1

12.7

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR