May 25, 26sim 100
18130
5(H)93
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+13NY
NY
53-29
121108
CLE
52-30
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 50 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NBA
ew York Knicks went into Cleveland Cavaliers and beat them, 121–108.
NY +3.5 cashed (CLE lost outright). Total cleared the 216.5 OVER by 12.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NY · top performer
Mikal Bridges
G · #25
21.9Game score
22
Pts
6
Reb
2
Ast
CLE · top performer
Jarrett Allen
C · #31
16.0Game score
17
Pts
7
Reb
0
Ast
NBA · New York Knicks at Cleveland Cavaliers · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
NY53-29
121108
CLE52-30
NY53-29CLE52-30
NY
53-29
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||||
| 31 | 21 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +11 | |
CONT8.491 DEFL3.185 DRIVES5.135 | ||||||||
| 36 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +23 | |
CONT7.685 DRIVES6.147 TOUCHES50.830 | ||||||||
| 35 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 4 | +3 | |
DEFL4.197 TOUCHES56.942 CONT4.633 | ||||||||
| 39 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +19 | |
DEFL1.929 DRIVES3.818 CONT3.617 | ||||||||
| 41 | 30 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +15 | |
TOUCHES89.694 DRIVES1688 DEFL1.618 | ||||||||
| 9 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | |
| 28 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +5 | |
| 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | |
| Team | 121 | 37 | 27 | 11 | 4 | 14 | ||
| DNP: J. Sochan, P. Dadiet, M. Diawara, A. Hukporti, T. Kolek | ||||||||
CLE
52-30
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||||
| 17 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | |
| 36 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -14 | |
| 36 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -21 | |
CONT9.497 DEFL2.670 TOUCHES63.659 | ||||||||
| 41 | 19 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -8 | |
DRIVES12.676 TOUCHES70.370 DEFL2.670 | ||||||||
| 38 | 23 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -22 | |
DRIVES12.371 TOUCHES63.659 DEFL1.512 | ||||||||
| 9 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | |
| 31 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | |
| 24 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | |
| 9 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +3 | |
| Team | 108 | 34 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 17 | ||
| DNP: L. Nance Jr., N. Tomlin, T. Bryant, C. Porter Jr., K. Ellis, T. Proctor | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
56
FG %
50
27
Ast
22
Playoff series
NY leads series 3-0
May 20CLE104@NY115
CLE104@NY115May 22CLE93@NY109
CLE93@NY109May 24NY121@CLE108today
NY121@CLE108todayMay 26NY130@CLE93
NY130@CLE93Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
CLE -3.5
Between — and 5
Total
216.5
Defensive · -9.5 vs avg
Moneyline
NY+12045%CLE-14259%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
3.5
+1.0 since open
Total
216.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Game flowNY ↔ CLE
Biggest swing: 9pp · 2nd Quarter · 12:00
NYM. Bridges
GGame leader · 39 min
22 PTS · 6 REB · 2 AST
CLEJ. Allen
CGame leader · 36 min
17 PTS · 7 REB · 0 AST
How it ended
NY beat CLE 121-108. M. Bridges led with 22 PTS, 6 REB, 2 AST. NY outscored the other side 37-27 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
CLE vs NY
Starters vs bench
production by unitNYstarters 81% of ptsStarters(5)
98 PTS · 33 REB · 24 AST
GS 94
Bench(5)
23 PTS · 4 REB · 3 AST
GS 15
CLEstarters 77% of ptsStarters(5)
83 PTS · 21 REB · 12 AST
GS 51
Bench(4)
25 PTS · 13 REB · 10 AST
GS 23
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactNY1st Quarter · 3:29 · 29-19
+6pp→ 80% WP
Landry Shamet · makes 22-foot running jump shot (Mikal Bridges assists)
NY2nd Quarter · 12:00 · 37-27
+9pp→ 85% WP
Jaylon Tyson · enters the game for Max Strus
NY3rd Quarter · 11:46 · 63-54
+7pp→ 82% WP
OG Anunoby · makes 27-foot three point jumper (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY | 37 | 23 | 31 | 30 | 121 |
| CLE | 27 | 27 | 28 | 26 | 108 |
Period scoring
NY won 3 · CLE won 1
37
27
Q1
Towns 11
Mitchell 7
23
27
Q2
Anunoby 7
Tyson 11
31
28
Q3
Brunson 12
Mobley 11
30
26
Q4
Shamet 11
Mobley 8
NY
CLE
Shooting comparison
NY
CLE
56%
43-77
FG
50%
42-84
39%
11-28
3PT
29%
12-41
89%
24-27
FT
63%
12-19
Play-by-play · 444 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
NY 121·CLE 108
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NY 121·CLE 108
- Q4·17.4
OG Anunoby defensive rebound
NY 121·CLE 108
- Q4·19.6
Donovan Mitchell misses 25-foot three point jumper
NY 121·CLE 108
- Q4·25.3
Jalen Brunson makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 121·CLE 108
- Q4·25.3
Jalen Brunson makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 120·CLE 108
- Q4·25.3
Sam Merrill personal foul
NY 119·CLE 108
- Q4·30.2
Evan Mobley makes driving layup (Max Strus assists)
·
NY 119·CLE 108
- Q4·35.9
Jalen Brunson makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 119·CLE 106
- Q4·35.9
Knicks offensive team rebound
NY 118·CLE 106
- Q4·35.9
Jalen Brunson misses free throw 1 of 2
NY 118·CLE 106
- Q4·35.9
Max Strus personal foul
NY 118·CLE 106
- Q4·38.9
OG Anunoby offensive rebound
NY 118·CLE 106
- Q4·41.5
Josh Hart misses 32-foot three point jumper
NY 118·CLE 106
- Q4·57.5
Josh Hart defensive rebound
NY 118·CLE 106
- Q4·59.5
Evan Mobley misses driving floating jump shot
NY 118·CLE 106
- Q4·1:03
Mikal Bridges out of bounds bad pass turnover
NY 118·CLE 106
- Q4·1:04
James Harden bad pass turnover (Mikal Bridges steals)
·
NY 118·CLE 106
- Q4·1:04
Max Strus makes free throw flagrant 1 of 1
NY 118·CLE 106
- Q4·1:04
(01:04) [Knicks] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)
NY 118·CLE 105
- Q4·1:04
Josh Hart flagrant foul type 1
NY 118·CLE 105
- Q4·1:04
Max Strus makes 25-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)
·
NY 118·CLE 105
- Q4·1:09
Evan Mobley defensive rebound
NY 118·CLE 102
- Q4·1:11
Jalen Brunson misses driving floating jump shot
NY 118·CLE 102
- Q4·1:25
Donovan Mitchell bad pass turnover (Jalen Brunson steals)
·
NY 118·CLE 102
- Q4·1:29
Landry Shamet bad pass turnover (Donovan Mitchell steals)
·
NY 118·CLE 102
- Q4·1:43
Josh Hart defensive rebound
NY 118·CLE 102
- Q4·1:45
Sam Merrill misses 25-foot three point jumper
NY 118·CLE 102
- Q4·1:49
Josh Hart enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns
·
NY 118·CLE 102
- Q4·1:49
Sam Merrill enters the game for Jarrett Allen
·
NY 118·CLE 102
Team stats
NY
Away
Stat
CLE
Home
43-77
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
42-84
56
FG %
50
11-28
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
12-41
24-27
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
12-19
27
Assists
22
14
Turnovers
17
Betting line
CLE -3.5·O/U 216.5·NY +120/CLE -142
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
Josh HartNY · GDEFL4.197
Evan MobleyCLE · CCONT9.497
Jalen BrunsonNY · GTOUCHES89.694
OG AnunobyNY · FCONT8.491
Karl-Anthony TownsNY · CCONT7.685
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
2.9%
ensemble · NY favored
Elo Static
21.9%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
17.4%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
23.0%
P(CLE win)
32%
weight
Disagreement
2.43 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
84% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
-2.54
CLV pp · steam
Open price
+102
Close price
+114
Open no-vig
47.4%
Close no-vig
44.9%
Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit
Line shopping · 1 book
Where to bet this game.
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
+52.9pp
best edge · NY · DraftKings
NY
★ best+120DraftKings
edge +52.9pp · implied 43.7%
CLE
no live price
| Book | NY | CLE | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +120★ | -142 | +52.9 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
Player projections
CLE vs NY.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
180
projections · 155 high confidence
Points
- Donovan MitchellCLE27.5± 7.3high
- Jalen BrunsonNY25.9± 8.0high
- James HardenCLE19.6± 6.6high
Rebounds
- Karl-Anthony TownsNY10.7± 3.3high
- Josh HartNY8.2± 3.2high
- Evan MobleyCLE8.0± 3.5high
Assists
- Jalen BrunsonNY6.5± 3.3high
- James HardenCLE5.9± 2.8high
- Karl-Anthony TownsNY4.9± 2.9high
Blocks
- Evan MobleyCLE2.1± 1.3high
- Jarrett AllenCLE1.3± 0.7high
- Karl-Anthony TownsNY0.9± 0.7high
Steals
- Josh HartNY1.8± 1.4high
- OG AnunobyNY1.6± 1.4high
- Donovan MitchellCLE1.5± 1.8high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands