Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Jun 24, 2026

CHC

41-37

PregameWed, 1:10 PM EDT

NYM

34-44

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Park factor

96 total idx

Citi Field run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Recent form

7-3

CHC +2.6 vs NYM -1.6 margin

CHC brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Citi Field · Queens, New York

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

TBD

Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.

Home starter

Nolan McLean

SP · #26

4-4

W-L

3.67

ERA

1.09

WHIP

83.1

Last 3 starts

@CINW(4-4)7.0 IP0 ER9 K

vsATL-4.0 IP2 ER6 K

@SD-6.0 IP1 ER5 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Win prob47% / 53%

LeanHome · 3pp

ConfidenceTossup

Head to head

SeriesCHC lead series 1-0

TypeCurrent Series

Scouting report · pre-game

NYM vs CHC.

NYM has dropped 3 straight; CHC is 7-3 over its last 10.

53.3%

model · NYM win prob

Recent form

NYM4–6-1.6
CHC7–3+2.6

Situational

NYM1d restB2B
CHC1d restB2B
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. NYM has 0 straight road games; CHC has 1.

Model angle

Weather and park remove about 0.1 runs from the total environment.

▼Weather + park-0.1pp

Players to watch

Ben BrownCHC
3.9strikeouts · ±2.3
Ben Brown · 3.9 K · last-10 4.3 vs season 3.3.
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
3.4total bases · ±2.5
Pete Crow-Armstrong · 3.4 TB · last-10 4.4 vs season 2.
Bo BichetteNYM
2.4total bases · ±2.5
Bo Bichette · 2.4 TB · last-10 2.9 vs season 1.5.

Head-to-head · 0-1 · last 1

NYM is 0-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-06-23CHC @ NYM9–6

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.2%

ensemble · NYM favored

Elo Static
53.6%
P(NYM win)
44%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
53.6%
P(NYM win)
11%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.3%
P(NYM win)
45%
weight

Disagreement

0.15 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

2 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NYM vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 97 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nolan McLeanNYM
6.1± 2.1medium
Shota ImanagaCHC
5.4± 2.8medium
Freddy PeraltaNYM
4.9± 2.9medium

Hits

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
1.6± 1.1high
Bo BichetteNYM
1.4± 1.1high
Juan SotoNYM
1.3± 1.0high

Total bases

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
3.4± 2.5high
Bo BichetteNYM
2.4± 2.5high
Juan SotoNYM
2.3± 2.5high

RBIs

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
0.9± 1.0high
Carson KellyCHC
0.8± 1.9high
Bo BichetteNYM
0.8± 1.9high

Earned runs

Kodai SengaNYM
4.4± 3.0low
Edward CabreraCHC
3.3± 2.7low
Shota ImanagaCHC
3.1± 3.4medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHC

league avg

NYM

.741

OPS

◀

.719

.670

.338

OBP

◀

.319

.298

4.81

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.06

4.30

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.14

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.29

8.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

The One modelTossup

Wed, Jun 24

CHC

Cubs

44-47

vs53.3%NYM

NYM★

Mets

41-48

CHC 46.7%win prob53.3% NYM

NYM 1489 · CHC 1489Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Chicago Cubs at New York Mets

The matchup, end-to-end.

NYM vs CHC.

3 sub-models, blended.

NYM vs CHC.

Team rate stats vs league

3 sub-models, blended.

NYM vs CHC.