MIN
49-33
SA
62-20
78.0%
SA wins · current
Pre-game: 59.1% SA
MIN 35 · 59 SA
SA +24
Live momentum · cumulative diff
Q2MIN · top performer
Rudy Gobert
C · #27
4
Pts
7
Reb
1
Ast
SA · top performer
Victor Wembanyama
F · #1
14
Pts
9
Reb
1
Ast
Tonight's box score
MIN · SA
MIN
49-33
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | GMSC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 2.8 | |
| 11 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2.5 | |
| 19 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 3.8 | |
| 11 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1.3 | |
| 14 | 4 | 3 | 1 | -0.6 | |
| 12 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 2.5 | |
| 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.1 | |
| 17 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0.3 | |
| Team | 35 | 23 | 7 | — | |
| DNP: J. Ingles, K. Anderson, J. Phillips, J. Beringer | |||||
SA
62-20
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | GMSC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -0.2 | |
| 15 | 14 | 9 | 1 | 14.4 | |
| 16 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 9.9 | |
| 15 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 2.9 | |
| 16 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 7.5 | |
| 14 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 3.5 | |
| 9 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7.1 | |
| 12 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 9.3 | |
| Team | 59 | 32 | 12 | — | |
| DNP: K. Olynyk, L. Waters III, B. Biyombo, M. Plumlee, J. McLaughlin | |||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
30
FG %
46
7
Ast
12
Playoff series
MIN leads series 1-0
MIN104@SA102MIN@SAtodaySA@MINupcomingSA@MINupcomingMIN@SAupcomingSA@MINupcomingMIN@SAupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
SA -10.5
Half-pt above key 10
Total
217.5
Defensive · -8.5 vs avg
Moneyline
MIN+33023%SA-42581%50· 6h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
10.5
-1.0 since open
Total
217.5
-1.0 since open
Live · top performers so far
HalftimeEnd of the 2nd Quarter
MINR. Gobert
CLeading · Halftime · 19 min
4 PTS · 7 REB · 1 AST
On pace: 10 PTS · 18 REB · 3 AST
SAV. Wembanyama
FLeading · Halftime · 15 min
14 PTS · 9 REB · 1 AST
On pace: 45 PTS · 29 REB · 3 AST
How it's going
SA lead MIN 59-35 (Halftime). V. Wembanyama led with 14 PTS, 9 REB, 1 AST. SA have outscored the other side 35-18 in the 2nd quarter.
Win probability
SA vs MIN
Score progression
3 lead changes
Starters vs bench
production by unitMINstarters 63% of ptsStarters(5)
22 PTS · 15 REB · 7 AST
GS 10
Bench(5)
13 PTS · 9 REB · 0 AST
GS 0
SAstarters 71% of ptsStarters(5)
42 PTS · 18 REB · 7 AST
GS 35
Bench(5)
17 PTS · 14 REB · 5 AST
GS 20
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 17 | 18 | 35 |
| SA | 24 | 35 | 59 |
Period scoring
MIN won 0 · SA won 2
Q1
Gobert 4
Fox 9
Q2
Randle 8
Castle 8
Shooting comparison
30%
14-47
FG
46%
21-46
13%
2-15
3PT
33%
4-12
56%
5-9
FT
81%
13-16
Game flow · key plays
Julius Randle misses 11-foot fade away jump shot
MIN 24·SA 36
+5pp
Carter Bryant loose ball foul
MIN 24·SA 33
−4pp
Anthony Edwards makes 26-foot three pointer (Rudy Gobert assists)
MIN 17·SA 21
−3pp
Ayo Dosunmu misses 27-foot three point shot
MIN 14·SA 15
+5pp
Stephon Castle loose ball foul
MIN 14·SA 15
−3pp
De'Aaron Fox shooting foul
MIN 11·SA 13
−3pp
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
SA
Home
14-47
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
21-46
30
FG %
46
2-15
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
4-12
5-9
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
13-16
7
Assists
12
11
Turnovers
7
Betting line
SA -10.5·O/U 217.5·MIN +330/SA -425
The receipts
+3.41
CLV pp · steam
Open price
+380
Close price
+310
Open no-vig
20.0%
Close no-vig
23.4%
Market steamed in our direction
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
180
projections · 150 high confidence
Points
Rebounds
Assists
Blocks
Steals
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
56.7%
ensemble · SA favored
Elo Static
59.1%
P(SA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
56.3%
P(SA win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
54.6%
P(SA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
1.86 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
88% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen
