Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYM at COL?

The model favors COL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

New York Mets vs Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Box Score — May 6, 2026

FINAL+5NYM

NYM

14-22

105

COL

14-23

Coors Field · Denver, Colorado

11,155 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

COL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

COL no-vig %

40.0%

open 40.0%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = COL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

44.2%

ensemble · NYM favored

Elo Static
47.4%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
44.7%
P(COL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
48.3%
P(COL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.52 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+139

Close price

+139

Open no-vig

40.0%

Close no-vig

40.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYM at COL?: The model favors COL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

COL vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 96 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nolan McLeanNYM
6.1± 2.1medium
Freddy PeraltaNYM
4.9± 2.9medium
Kodai SengaNYM
4.7± 4.0low

Hits

Bo BichetteNYM
1.4± 1.1high
Juan SotoNYM
1.4± 0.8high
Jake McCarthyCOL
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Juan SotoNYM
2.7± 2.6high
TJ RumfieldCOL
2.5± 2.1high
Bo BichetteNYM
2.3± 2.4high

RBIs

TJ RumfieldCOL
0.9± 1.0high
Willi CastroCOL
0.8± 2.2high
Bo BichetteNYM
0.8± 1.9high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
4.5± 2.6low
Kodai SengaNYM
4.0± 2.8low
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.9± 2.8medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYM

league avg

COL

.669

OPS

.719

▶

.732

.297

OBP

.319

▶

.322

4.04

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.56

4.08

Team ERA

◀

4.19

5.53

1.28

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.52

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

NYM 10 · COL 5 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYM +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYM	1	0	0	3	0	4	0	0	2	10
COL	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	1	5

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SotoLF	.299	4	1	1	2	1	0	0
B. Bichette3B	.242	5	0	2	1	0	0	0
M. MelendezDH	.333	2	0	2	0	0	1	0
M. Vientos1B	.239	4	0	0	0	0	1	2
B. Baty3B	.214	4	2	2	0	0	1	0
M. Semien2B	.231	5	3	4	2	1	0	0
C. BengeRF	.202	5	2	2	2	0	0	1
F. AlvarezC	.240	4	1	2	1	0	1	0
L. TorrensC	.179	3	1	0	1	0	0	0
T. TaylorCF	.190	2	0	0	1	0	0	0
Team		38	10	15	10	2	4	3

Player

.299

.242

.333

.239

.214

.231

.202

.240

.179

.190

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. PeraltaSP	5.0	4	0	0	2	1	91
T. MyersRP	0.2	5	4	4	0	0	21
B. RaleyRP	1.1	0	0	0	1	2	14
L. WeaverRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	20
S. ManaeaRP	0.1	3	1	1	0	1	17
D. WilliamsRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	9
Team	9.0	13	5	5	3	8	172

Player

5.0

0.2

1.1

1.0

0.1

0.2

Team

9.0

172

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. Julien2B	.280	5	0	2	0	0	0	1
M. MoniakLF	.327	5	1	1	0	0	0	2
H. GoodmanC	.233	4	0	1	0	0	1	1
T. Rumfield1B	.274	4	1	3	1	1	1	0
T. FreemanRF	.292	4	1	2	1	0	0	0
T. JohnstonRF	.324	4	1	2	1	0	0	1
K. Karros3B	.218	4	0	1	0	0	1	1
E. TovarSS	.186	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. McCarthyCF	.262	4	1	1	2	1	0	0
J. BeckLF	.171	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		39	5	13	5	2	3	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. LorenzenSP	5.0	11	7	7	3	2	87
Z. AgnosRP	4.0	4	3	3	1	1	59
Team	9.0	15	10	10	4	3	146

Team

NYM

COL

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

COL vs NYM.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

COL vs NYM.

3 sub-models, blended.