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BOT 5TH+4NYM

NYM

13-22

COL

14-22

Box score

Live · model leanBot 5thPolls every 30s

71.0%

NYM wins · current

Pre-game: 52.8% NYM

NYM 4 · 0 COL

NYM +4

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 5

away leadsCOL leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingNYMTop 4th Inning · 1-0
+9pp→ 79% WP
Semien · doubled to right, Baty to third.
SwingNYMBottom 2nd Inning · 1-0
+7pp→ 63% WP
Karros · flied out to second.

Coors Field · Denver, Colorado

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 9.61

F. Peralta

1-3 · 3.52 ERA

M. Lorenzen

2-3 · 6.09 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

COL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

COL no-vig %

40.0%

open 40.0%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = COL favored. Pure CLV joins once moneyline closing-line ingest catches up across leagues.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

46.8%

ensemble · NYM favored

Elo Static
47.2%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
44.1%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
49.2%
P(COL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.10 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

71% confidence

Win prob · home

1.0%

-46.2ppvs pre-game · NYM favored

Leverage

low

Mostly decided · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+139

Close price

+139

Open no-vig

40.0%

Close no-vig

40.0%

Line barely moved

Line shop

Player props

Player projections

COL vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 60 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nolan McLeanNYM
7.3± 2.5low
Freddy PeraltaNYM
6.0± 2.2low
Chase DollanderCOL
5.3± 4.3low

Hits

Mickey MoniakCOL
1.4± 1.0high
Troy JohnstonCOL
1.1± 0.9high
TJ RumfieldCOL
1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

Mickey MoniakCOL
3.2± 3.3high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
2.2± 3.5high
Juan SotoNYM
1.8± 2.3high

RBIs

Mickey MoniakCOL
0.8± 1.0high
Mark VientosNYM
0.7± 1.3high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

David PetersonNYM
3.0± 3.5low
Michael LorenzenCOL
2.9± 3.8low
Tanner GordonCOL
2.5± 3.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelTossup

● Live

NYM★

Mets

13-22

vs52.8%NYM

COL

Rockies

14-22

NYM 52.8%win prob47.2% COL

NYM 1452 · COL 1408Box score→

MLBWed, May 6Bot 5thSeriesNYM lead series 1-0VegasNYM -161

Updated 0s ago

Tonight's box score

Every player. Every line.

NYM · COL

NYM

13-22

Player	H-AB	R	RBI	HR	OPS
J. Soto★LF	1-3	1	1	1	1.667
B. Bichette★3B	1-3	0	0	0	0.667
M. Melendez★LF	2-2	0	0	0	2.000
M. Vientos★1B	0-2	0	0	0	0.333
B. Baty★RF	0-2	1	0	0	0.333
M. Semien★2B	2-2	1	0	0	2.000
C. Benge★LF	1-2	1	2	0	1.000
F. Alvarez★C	1-2	0	0	0	1.000
L. Torrens★C	0-2	0	1	0	0.000

Team	8-20	4	4	1	—

Player	IP	H	ER	K
F. Peralta★SP	4.2	4	0	1
Team	4.2	4	0	1

COL

14-22

Player	H-AB	OPS
E. Julien★2B	1-3	0.667
M. Moniak★LF	0-3	0.000
H. Goodman★C	0-1	0.500
T. Rumfield★1B	1-2	1.000
T. Freeman★RF	1-2	1.000
T. Johnston★RF	1-2	1.000
K. Karros★3B	0-1	0.500
E. Tovar★SS	0-2	0.000
J. McCarthy★LF	0-2	0.000
Team	4-18	—

Player	IP	H	ER	K
M. Lorenzen★SP	5.0	8	4	2
Team	5.0	8	4	2

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

Hits

Runs

Errors

Current series

NYM lead series 1-0

May 4

NYM4@

COL2

May 6

NYM0@

COL0

May 7

NYM@

COLtoday

May 7

NYM@

COLupcoming

Season series

COL leads series 3-1

Apr 24

COL4@

NYM3

Apr 25

COL0@

NYM0

Apr 26

COL3@

NYM1

Apr 26

COL3@

NYM0

May 4

NYM4@

COL2

May 6

NYM0@

COL0

May 7

NYM@

COLtoday

May 7

NYM@

COLupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYM -1.5

Total

9.5

High-scoring · +1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYM-16162%

COL+13343%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.5

0.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats

NYMSP

F. Peralta

#51 · 1-3

ERA

3.52

—

Last 3 starts

4/30vs

WSH6.0 IP · 1 ER · 6 K-

4/24vs

COL5.2 IP · 2 ER · 8 KL(1-3)

4/18@

CHC5.2 IP · 3 ER · 3 KL(1-2)

COLSP

M. Lorenzen

#24 · 2-3

ERA

6.09

—

Last 3 starts

4/30@

CIN5.1 IP · 4 ER · 5 KL(2-3)

4/24@

NYM7.0 IP · 1 ER · 3 KW(2-2)

4/19vs

LAD5.0 IP · 3 ER · 3 K-

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order

NYM4L · 5R

1
J. Soto
LF · #22
L
2
B. Bichette
SS · #19
R
3
M. Melendez
RF · #1
L
4
M. Vientos
1B · #27
R
5
B. Baty
3B · #7
L
6
M. Semien
2B · #10
R
7
C. Benge
CF · #3
L
8
F. Alvarez
DH · #4
R
9
L. Torrens
C · #13
R

COL5L · 4R

1
E. Julien
2B · #6
L
2
M. Moniak
DH · #22
L
3
H. Goodman
C · #15
R
4
T. Rumfield
1B · #7
L
5
T. Freeman
RF · #2
R
6
T. Johnston
LF · #20
L
7
K. Karros
3B · #12
R
8
E. Tovar
SS · #14
R
9
J. McCarthy
CF · #31
L

Live · top performers so far

Bot 5th

Game flowNYM ↔ COL

Recent swing: 9pp · Top 4th Inning

Just happened

Pitch · 5 : Strike 2 Foul

NYM

M. Melendez

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2.000 OPS

F. Peralta

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 1 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 2 K · 0 ER

COL

T. Rumfield

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.000 OPS

M. Lorenzen

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 2 K · 4 ER · 8 H · 3 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 3 K · 6 ER

How it's going

NYM lead COL 4-0 (Bot 5th).

Win probability

COL vs NYM

Score progression

0 lead changes

NYM4

COL0

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

NYMBottom 2nd Inning · 1-0

+7pp→ 63% WP

Karros · flied out to second.

NYMTop 4th Inning · 1-0

+9pp→ 79% WP

Semien · doubled to right, Baty to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team	1	2	3	4	5	R
NYM	1	0	0	3	0	4
COL	0	0	0	0	0	0

Period scoring

NYM won 2 · COL won 0

Inn 1

Inn 2

Inn 3

Inn 4

Benge 2

Inn 5

NYM

COL

Game flow · key plays

T4
Benge singled to right, Baty scored and Semien scored.
NYM 3·COL 0
−7pp
T4
Semien doubled to right, Baty to third.
NYM 1·COL 0
−9pp
T4
Baty walked.
NYM 1·COL 0
−9pp
B2
Karros flied out to second.
NYM 1·COL 0
−7pp
T1
Vientos struck out swinging.
NYM 1·COL 0
+5pp
T1
Melendez tripled to right.
NYM 1·COL 0
−6pp

Team stats

NYM

Away

Stat

COL

Home

Hits

Errors

Runs

Betting line

NYM -1.5·O/U 9.5·NYM -161/COL +133

DraftKings · via ESPN

Live · model intelligence

71% confidence

Win prob · home

1.0%

-46.2ppvs pre-game · NYM favored

Leverage

low

Mostly decided · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+139

Close price

+139

Open no-vig

40.0%

Close no-vig

40.0%

Line barely moved

Player projections

COL vs NYM.

125

projections · 60 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nolan McLeanNYM
7.3± 2.5low
Freddy PeraltaNYM
6.0± 2.2low
Chase DollanderCOL
5.3± 4.3low

Hits

Mickey MoniakCOL
1.4± 1.0high
Troy JohnstonCOL
1.1± 0.9high
TJ RumfieldCOL
1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

Mickey MoniakCOL
3.2± 3.3high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
2.2± 3.5high
Juan SotoNYM
1.8± 2.3high

RBIs

Mickey MoniakCOL
0.8± 1.0high
Mark VientosNYM
0.7± 1.3high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

David PetersonNYM
3.0± 3.5low
Michael LorenzenCOL
2.9± 3.8low
Tanner GordonCOL
2.5± 3.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

46.8%

ensemble · NYM favored

Elo Static
47.2%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
44.1%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
49.2%
P(COL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.10 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen