NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1ATL

ATL

46-36

107106

53-29

NBAMon, Apr 20FinalSeriesNY wins series 2-1VegasNY -5.5

ATL · top performer

CJ McCollum

G · #3

25.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NY · top performer

Josh Hart

G · #3

16.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowATL ↔ NY

Biggest swing: 53pp · 4th Quarter · 2:30

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. OkongwuF · #17	30	15	6-9	2-3	1-2	-1	8	1
J. JohnsonF · #1	36	17	6-12	0-3	5-5	-10	8	3
C. McCollumG · #3	35	32	12-22	3-10	5-7	+9	3	6
N. Alexander-WalkerG · #7	38	9	3-12	2-5	1-1	0	5	6
D. DanielsG · #5	26	6	2-5	0-1	2-2	-15	4	2
Bench
C. KispertF · #24	9	4	2-3	0-1	—	+10	2	1
J. KumingaF · #0	35	19	7-12	1-4	4-6	+10	4	1
M. GueyeF · #18	5	0	0-2	0-1	—	-3	0	0
T. BradleyC · #13	12	2	1-2	—	—	+7	1	1
G. VincentG · #4	14	3	1-2	1-2	—	-2	1	1
Team		107	40-81	9-30	18-23		36	22
DNP: A. Newell, Z. Risacher, B. Hield, K. Wallace

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. AnunobyF · #8	38	14	4-9	2-4	4-8	-1	8	2
K. TownsC · #32	34	18	8-12	2-5	—	+5	8	2
J. HartG · #3	35	15	5-11	1-5	4-6	+8	13	6
M. BridgesG · #25	37	10	3-10	2-6	2-2	0	1	2
J. BrunsonG · #11	35	29	10-26	4-10	5-7	+3	2	7
Bench
M. RobinsonC · #23	18	13	6-6	—	1-2	-10	7	0
J. ClarksonG · #00	11	7	3-6	0-1	1-2	-5	5	0
L. ShametG · #44	10	0	0-1	0-1	—	-6	0	0
J. AlvaradoG · #5	9	0	0-3	0-1	—	+5	2	3
M. McBrideG · #2	13	0	0-3	0-1	—	-4	1	0
Team		106	39-87	11-34	17-27		47	22
DNP: J. Sochan, P. Dadiet, M. Diawara, A. Hukporti, T. Kolek

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

Home

40-81

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

39-87

FG %

9-30

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-34

18-23

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-27

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

Series tied 1-1

Apr 18

ATL102@

NY113

Apr 21

ATL107@

NY106today

Apr 23

NY108@

ATL109

Apr 25

NY114@

ATL98

Apr 29

ATL97@

NY126

Apr 30

NY140@

ATL89

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NY -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

218.5

Defensive · -7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ATL+20033%

NY-24571%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NY -5.5↗SpreadBet NY -5.5↗

Line movement · 15 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

218.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ATL beat NY 107-106. C. McCollum paced them with 32 PTS, 3 REB, 6 AST. ATL outscored the other side 28-15 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

NY vs ATL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ATLstarters 74% of pts

Starters(5)

79 PTS · 28 REB · 18 AST

GS 65

Bench(5)

28 PTS · 8 REB · 4 AST

GS 21

NYstarters 81% of pts

Starters(5)

86 PTS · 32 REB · 19 AST

GS 63

Bench(5)

20 PTS · 15 REB · 3 AST

GS 14

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

NY4th Quarter · 1:04 · 103-103

+24pp→ 58% WP

CJ McCollum · bad pass turnover (Josh Hart steals)

NY4th Quarter · 2:30 · 99-100

+53pp→ 60% WP

OG Anunoby · lost ball turnover

ATL4th Quarter · 1.0 · 107-106

+16pp→ 97% WP

Mikal Bridges · misses 12-foot fade away jump shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
ATL	23	31	25	28	107
NY	32	29	30	15	106

Period scoring

ATL won 2 · NY won 2

McCollum 7

Bridges 8

McCollum 11

Brunson 7

McCollum 8

Towns 14

Kuminga 7

Brunson 10

ATL

Shooting comparison

ATL

49%

40-81

45%

39-87

30%

9-30

3PT

32%

11-34

78%

18-23

63%

17-27

Play-by-play · 486 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 107·NY 106
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ATL 107·NY 106
−5pp
Q4·1.0
Knicks offensive team rebound
ATL 107·NY 106
+1pp
Q4·1.0
Mikal Bridges misses 12-foot fade away jump shotBIG MOMENT
ATL 107·NY 106
−16pp
Q4·4.0
Josh Hart defensive reboundBIG MOMENT
ATL 107·NY 106
−8pp
Q4·5.6
CJ McCollum misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
ATL 107·NY 106
+10pp
Q4·5.6
Dyson Daniels enters the game for Onyeka Okongwu
·
ATL 107·NY 106
Q4·5.6
Karl-Anthony Towns enters the game for Miles McBride
·
ATL 107·NY 106
Q4·5.6
Hawks offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
ATL 107·NY 106
+6pp
Q4·5.6
CJ McCollum misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
ATL 107·NY 106
−49pp
Q4·5.6
Josh Hart personal take foulBIG MOMENT
ATL 107·NY 106
−14pp
Q4·7.1
CJ McCollum enters the game for Dyson Daniels
·
ATL 107·NY 106
Q4·7.1
Miles McBride enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns
·
ATL 107·NY 106
Q4·7.1
Hawks Full timeout
ATL 107·NY 106
−4pp
Q4·8.5
Jalen Brunson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)BIG MOMENT
·
ATL 107·NY 106
+15pp
Q4·10.2
Dyson Daniels enters the game for CJ McCollum
·
ATL 107·NY 103
Q4·10.2
Knicks Full timeout
ATL 107·NY 103
Q4·10.2
Jalen Johnson makes running dunk (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)BIG MOMENT
·
ATL 107·NY 103
−7pp
Q4·10.9
Nickeil Alexander-Walker defensive rebound
ATL 105·NY 103
−4pp
Q4·13.6
Nickeil Alexander-Walker blocks Jalen Brunson 's 12-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
·
ATL 105·NY 103
−15pp
Q4·33.5
CJ McCollum makes 14-foot fade away jump shotBIG MOMENT
ATL 105·NY 103
−12pp
Q4·41.9
Jalen Johnson defensive rebound
ATL 103·NY 103
−2pp
Q4·44.6
Jalen Brunson misses 14-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
ATL 103·NY 103
−7pp
Q4·1:04
CJ McCollum bad pass turnover (Josh Hart steals)BIG MOMENT
·
ATL 103·NY 103
+24pp
Q4·1:13
Mikal Bridges personal foulBIG MOMENT
ATL 103·NY 103
−19pp
Q4·1:21
Jalen Brunson makes 26-foot three pointerBIG MOMENT
ATL 103·NY 103
+21pp
Q4·1:33
CJ McCollum makes 6-foot driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
ATL 103·NY 100
−10pp
Q4·1:52
Hawks defensive team rebound
ATL 101·NY 100
Q4·1:54
OG Anunoby misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
ATL 101·NY 100
−10pp
Q4·1:54
Knicks offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
ATL 101·NY 100
−7pp

Betting line

NY -5.5·O/U 218.5·ATL +200/NY -245

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

tlanta Hawks went into New York Knicks and beat them, 107–106. It came down to the final possession.

ATL +5.5 cashed (NY lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 218.5 by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jalen BrunsonNY · G
TOUCHES89.699
Onyeka OkongwuATL · F
DEFL4.299
Dyson DanielsATL · G
DEFL4.299
Josh HartNY · G
DEFL4.198
Jalen JohnsonATL · F
TOUCHES79.397

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

ATL

league avg

55.1%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.9%

47.2%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.0%

117.2

PPG

114.9

116.4

29.6

Assists / G

◀

25.0

27.0

13.4

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR