NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3POR

POR

42-40

106103

62-20

NBATue, Apr 21FinalSeriesSA wins series 2-1VegasSA -11.5

POR · top performer

Scoot Henderson

G · #00

21.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SA · top performer

Devin Vassell

G · #24

14.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPOR ↔ SA

Biggest swing: 78pp · 3rd Quarter · 10:54

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. CamaraF · #33	35	10	3-7	2-5	2-2	+17	9	1
D. AvdijaF · #8	30	14	5-13	1-2	3-5	-1	4	3
D. ClinganC · #23	24	9	4-12	1-6	—	-14	10	2
J. HolidayG · #5	39	16	6-17	2-6	2-2	+12	5	9
S. HendersonG · #00	38	31	11-17	5-9	4-6	+9	1	0
Bench
J. GrantF · #9	20	5	1-8	0-2	3-3	+2	1	0
K. MurrayF · #24	8	1	0-1	0-1	1-2	0	2	0
R. Williams IIIC · #35	23	11	5-6	1-2	0-1	+13	9	4
M. ThybulleG · #4	10	0	0-3	0-2	—	-22	1	1
S. SharpeG · #17	13	9	3-5	1-3	2-2	-1	1	0
Team		106	38-89	13-38	17-23		43	20
DNP: Y. Hansen, V. Krejci, B. Wesley, S. Cissoko

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ChampagnieF · #30	27	9	3-4	2-3	1-2	-14	4	0
V. WembanyamaF · #1	12	5	1-3	0-1	3-4	-7	4	1
D. FoxG · #4	34	17	6-16	1-3	4-5	-14	2	4
D. VassellG · #24	34	16	6-16	0-5	4-5	-1	12	2
S. CastleG · #5	38	18	7-20	2-6	2-5	-1	7	5
Bench
H. BarnesF · #40	15	4	1-3	0-1	2-2	+13	1	0
K. JohnsonF · #3	18	7	3-7	1-3	—	+7	4	1
C. BryantF · #11	12	7	3-5	1-2	—	-13	2	2
L. KornetC · #7	28	10	4-5	—	2-3	+11	9	2
D. HarperG · #2	23	10	4-7	—	2-2	+4	0	2
Team		103	38-86	7-24	20-28		45	19
DNP: K. Olynyk, L. Waters III, B. Biyombo, M. Plumlee

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

POR

Away

Stat

Home

38-89

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

38-86

FG %

13-38

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

7-24

17-23

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

20-28

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

Series tied 1-1

Apr 20

POR98@

SA111

Apr 22

POR106@

SA103today

Apr 25

SA120@

POR108

Apr 26

SA114@

POR93

Apr 29

POR95@

SA114

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -11.5

Between 10 and —

Total

221.5

Standard · -4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

POR+47018%

SA-65087%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -11.5↗SpreadBet SA -11.5↗

Line movement · 15 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

11.5

0.0 since open

Total

221.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

POR beat SA 106-103. S. Henderson paced them with 31 PTS, 1 REB, 0 AST. Luke Kornet's play in the 3rd quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (78pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SA vs POR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PORstarters 75% of pts

Starters(5)

80 PTS · 29 REB · 15 AST

GS 60

Bench(5)

26 PTS · 14 REB · 5 AST

GS 21

SAstarters 63% of pts

Starters(5)

65 PTS · 29 REB · 12 AST

GS 46

Bench(5)

38 PTS · 16 REB · 7 AST

GS 32

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SA4th Quarter · 6:18 · 90-98

+24pp→ 95% WP

Julian Champagnie · blocks Jrue Holiday 's 26-foot three point step back jumpshot

POR4th Quarter · 5.2 · 104-103

+24pp→ 93% WP

Carter Bryant · personal foul

SA3rd Quarter · 10:54 · 57-59

+78pp→ 78% WP

Luke Kornet · lost ball turnover (Toumani Camara steals)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
POR	27	30	22	27	106
SA	28	29	23	23	103

Period scoring

POR won 2 · SA won 2

Henderson 13

Castle 10

Sharpe 7

Fox 17

Henderson 7

Fox 6

Camara 8

Vassell 19

POR

Shooting comparison

POR

43%

38-89

44%

38-86

34%

13-38

3PT

29%

7-24

74%

17-23

71%

20-28

Play-by-play · 538 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
POR 106·SA 103
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
POR 106·SA 103
−2pp
Q4·2.0
Toumani Camara defensive rebound
POR 106·SA 103
Q4·2.0
Devin Vassell misses 22-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
POR 106·SA 103
−7pp
Q4·5.2
Matisse Thybulle enters the game for Scoot Henderson
·
POR 106·SA 103
Q4·5.2
Julian Champagnie enters the game for Luke Kornet
·
POR 106·SA 103
Q4·5.2
De'Aaron Fox enters the game for Carter Bryant
·
POR 106·SA 103
Q4·5.2
Spurs Full timeout
POR 106·SA 103
Q4·5.2
Toumani Camara makes free throw 2 of 2
POR 106·SA 103
+4pp
Q4·5.2
Kris Murray enters the game for Deni Avdija
·
POR 105·SA 103
Q4·5.2
Keldon Johnson enters the game for Dylan Harper
·
POR 105·SA 103
Q4·5.2
Luke Kornet enters the game for De'Aaron Fox
·
POR 105·SA 103
Q4·5.2
Toumani Camara makes free throw 1 of 2
POR 105·SA 103
−1pp
Q4·5.2
Carter Bryant personal foulBIG MOMENT
POR 104·SA 103
−24pp
Q4·10.4
Scoot Henderson enters the game for Donovan Clingan
·
POR 104·SA 103
Q4·10.4
Jerami Grant enters the game for Robert Williams III
· ·
POR 104·SA 103
Q4·10.4
Deni Avdija enters the game for Kris Murray
·
POR 104·SA 103
Q4·10.4
Carter Bryant enters the game for Keldon Johnson
·
POR 104·SA 103
Q4·10.4
Dylan Harper enters the game for Luke Kornet
·
POR 104·SA 103
Q4·10.4
Trail Blazers Full timeout
POR 104·SA 103
Q4·10.4
Devin Vassell makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
POR 104·SA 103
−14pp
Q4·10.4
Donovan Clingan enters the game for Scoot Henderson
·
POR 104·SA 102
Q4·10.4
Keldon Johnson enters the game for Julian Champagnie
·
POR 104·SA 102
Q4·10.4
Devin Vassell makes free throw 1 of 2
POR 104·SA 102
+4pp
Q4·10.4
Jrue Holiday personal foulBIG MOMENT
POR 104·SA 101
+22pp
Q4·11.4
De'Aaron Fox enters the game for Keldon Johnson
·
POR 104·SA 101
Q4·11.4
Spurs Full timeout
POR 104·SA 101
Q4·11.4
Devin Vassell defensive rebound
POR 104·SA 101
Q4·12.0
Robert Williams III misses free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
·
POR 104·SA 101
+13pp
Q4·12.0
Kris Murray enters the game for Deni Avdija
·
POR 104·SA 101

Betting line

SA -11.5·O/U 221.5·POR +470/SA -650

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ortland Trail Blazers went into San Antonio Spurs and beat them, 106–103. Decided by 3.

POR +11.5 cashed (SA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 221.5 by 12.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Deni AvdijaPOR · F
DRIVES20.899+
Victor WembanyamaSA · F
CONT11.999+
Robert Williams IIIPOR · C
TS%72.299
Jrue HolidayPOR · G
TOUCHES84.698
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.898

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · POR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SA vs POR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

180

projections · 160 high confidence

Points

Deni AvdijaPOR
25.3± 7.7high
Victor WembanyamaSA
25.2± 4.8high
Damian LillardPOR
19.2± 8.2high

Rebounds

Donovan ClinganPOR
10.3± 2.7high
Victor WembanyamaSA
9.9± 3.2high
Robert Williams IIIPOR
7.4± 1.6high

Assists

Deni AvdijaPOR
6.3± 3.2high
Jrue HolidayPOR
6.3± 3.0high
Damian LillardPOR
6.1± 3.2high

Blocks

Victor WembanyamaSA
3.0± 1.1high
Donovan ClinganPOR
1.5± 1.2high
Robert Williams IIIPOR
1.1± 0.9high

Steals

Matisse ThybullePOR
1.7± 1.8high
Toumani CamaraPOR
1.4± 1.4high
De'Aaron FoxSA
1.4± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

POR

league avg

53.0%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.3%

45.1%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.7%

114.6

PPG

114.9

▶

118.2

25.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.3

16.2

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR