CLE
52-30
TOR
46-36
CLE · top performer
Evan Mobley
C · #4
15
Pts
6
Reb
7
Ast
TOR · top performer
Scottie Barnes
F · #4
33
Pts
5
Reb
11
Ast
Biggest swing: 10pp · 4th Quarter · 11:32
NBA · Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 22 | 5 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 0-2 | -10 | 5 | 0 | |
| 26 | 12 | 5-7 | — | 2-2 | -22 | 4 | 1 | |
| 33 | 15 | 4-13 | 0-4 | 7-8 | -20 | 6 | 7 | |
| 33 | 18 | 5-13 | 3-10 | 5-6 | -17 | 4 | 4 | |
| 33 | 15 | 7-16 | 1-7 | — | -14 | 5 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 5 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | — | -8 | 1 | 0 | |
| 26 | 15 | 5-10 | 4-8 | 1-2 | -16 | 6 | 3 | |
| 18 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | — | -5 | 3 | 0 | |
| 16 | 13 | 5-9 | 3-6 | — | +1 | 2 | 4 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 15 | 0 | — | — | — | +1 | 4 | 0 | |
| 3 | 2 | — | — | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 104 | 36-81 | 14-45 | 18-23 | 42 | 23 | ||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 29 | 12 | 5-9 | 1-2 | 1-2 | +15 | 3 | 2 | |
| 39 | 33 | 12-19 | 6-8 | 3-7 | +24 | 5 | 5 | |
| 35 | 33 | 11-17 | 3-5 | 8-10 | +23 | 5 | 11 | |
| 18 | 8 | 4-6 | — | — | +4 | 6 | 2 | |
| 26 | 0 | 0-6 | 0-3 | — | +6 | 2 | 0 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 11 | 0 | 0-3 | — | 0-2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | -3 | 1 | 0 | |
| 16 | 14 | 5-5 | 4-4 | — | +20 | 2 | 0 | |
| 28 | 22 | 11-15 | — | — | +21 | 8 | 2 | |
| 2 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | -3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | -3 | 0 | 1 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | -3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 30 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-1 | — | +12 | 1 | 5 | |
| 2 | 0 | — | — | — | -3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 126 | 50-87 | 14-23 | 12-21 | 35 | 29 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
44
FG %
57
23
Ast
29
Team stats
CLE
Away
Stat
TOR
Home
36-81
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
50-87
44
FG %
57
14-45
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
14-23
18-23
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
12-21
23
Assists
29
20
Turnovers
11
Playoff series
CLE leads series 2-1
TOR113@CLE126TOR105@CLE115CLE104@TOR126todayCLE89@TOR93TOR120@CLE125CLE110@TOR112TOR102@CLE114Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
CLE -2.5
Between — and 5
Total
221.5
Standard · -4.5 vs avg
Moneyline
CLE-14860%TOR+12445%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 19 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
2.5
0.0 since open
Total
221.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
TOR beat CLE 126-104. S. Barnes paced them with 33 PTS, 5 REB, 11 AST. TOR outscored the other side 43-23 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
TOR vs CLE
Starters vs bench
production by unitCLEstarters 63% of ptsStarters(5)
65 PTS · 24 REB · 15 AST
GS 46
Bench(10)
39 PTS · 18 REB · 8 AST
GS 35
TORstarters 68% of ptsStarters(5)
86 PTS · 21 REB · 20 AST
GS 74
Bench(9)
40 PTS · 14 REB · 9 AST
GS 37
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactJaylon Tyson · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)
Sam Merrill · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaylon Tyson assists)
Jakob Poeltl · shooting foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 25 | 29 | 27 | 23 | 104 |
| TOR | 31 | 23 | 29 | 43 | 126 |
Period scoring
CLE won 1 · TOR won 3
Q1
Allen 6
Barrett 11
Q2
Strus 12
Barnes 8
Q3
Harden 6
Barnes 13
Q4
Harden 5
Barrett 16
Shooting comparison
44%
36-81
FG
57%
50-87
31%
14-45
3PT
61%
14-23
78%
18-23
FT
57%
12-21
Play-by-play · 479 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
CLE 104·TOR 126
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CLE 104·TOR 126
- Q4·6.3
shot clock turnover
CLE 104·TOR 126
- Q4·30.3
Thomas Bryant makes free throw 1 of 1
CLE 104·TOR 126
- Q4·30.3
Jonathan Mogbo shooting foul
CLE 103·TOR 126
- Q4·30.3
Thomas Bryant makes 2-foot floating jump shot (Nae'Qwan Tomlin assists)
·
CLE 103·TOR 126
- Q4·39.6
Jonathan Mogbo makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (Garrett Temple assists)
·
CLE 101·TOR 126
- Q4·50.5
Raptors offensive team rebound
CLE 101·TOR 124
- Q4·50.5
Trayce Jackson-Davis misses tip shot
CLE 101·TOR 124
- Q4·50.5
Trayce Jackson-Davis offensive rebound
CLE 101·TOR 124
- Q4·52.8
Garrett Temple misses 15-foot pullup jump shot
CLE 101·TOR 124
- Q4·1:16
Tyrese Proctor makes free throw 2 of 2
CLE 101·TOR 124
- Q4·1:16
Tyrese Proctor makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 100·TOR 124
- Q4·1:16
Trayce Jackson-Davis shooting foul
CLE 99·TOR 124
- Q4·1:18
Thomas Bryant defensive rebound
CLE 99·TOR 124
- Q4·1:21
Thomas Bryant blocks A.J. Lawson's driving layup
·
CLE 99·TOR 124
- Q4·1:34
Gradey Dick enters the game for Jamal Shead
·
CLE 99·TOR 124
- Q4·1:34
Jonathan Mogbo enters the game for Ja'Kobe Walter
·
CLE 99·TOR 124
- Q4·1:34
A.J. Lawson enters the game for Collin Murray-Boyles
·
CLE 99·TOR 124
- Q4·1:34
Garrett Temple enters the game for RJ Barrett
·
CLE 99·TOR 124
- Q4·1:34
Trayce Jackson-Davis enters the game for Brandon Ingram
·
CLE 99·TOR 124
- Q4·1:34
Raptors Full timeout
CLE 99·TOR 124
- Q4·1:34
RJ Barrett defensive rebound
CLE 99·TOR 124
- Q4·1:36
Thomas Bryant misses 23-foot three point jumper
CLE 99·TOR 124
- Q4·1:51
Brandon Ingram makes 27-foot three point jumper (RJ Barrett assists)
·
CLE 99·TOR 124
- Q4·2:11
Jamal Shead defensive rebound
CLE 99·TOR 121
- Q4·2:11
Nae'Qwan Tomlin misses two point shot
CLE 99·TOR 121
- Q4·2:13
Nae'Qwan Tomlin offensive rebound
CLE 99·TOR 121
- Q4·2:15
Craig Porter Jr. misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot
CLE 99·TOR 121
- Q4·2:38
Tyrese Proctor enters the game for Donovan Mitchell
·
CLE 99·TOR 121
Betting line
CLE -2.5·O/U 221.5·CLE -148/TOR +124
Recap · NBA
oronto Raptors held off Cleveland Cavaliers, 126–104. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
TOR +2.5 cashed (CLE lost outright). Total cleared the 221.5 OVER by 8.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
Jarrett AllenCLE · CCONT9.899- Scottie BarnesTOR · FDRIVES16.799
Jakob PoeltlTOR · CTS%69.899
RJ BarrettTOR · FDRIVES16.498
Donovan MitchellCLE · GUSG%31.998
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · CLE favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
TOR vs CLE.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
175
projections · 155 high confidence
Points
- Donovan MitchellCLE27.5± 7.3high
- RJ BarrettTOR21.8± 4.6high
- Scottie BarnesTOR20.0± 6.0high
Rebounds
- Evan MobleyCLE8.0± 3.5high
- Jarrett AllenCLE7.3± 2.3high
- Scottie BarnesTOR6.7± 3.3high
Assists
- Scottie BarnesTOR7.1± 3.8high
- James HardenCLE5.9± 2.8high
- Immanuel QuickleyTOR5.1± 2.5high
Blocks
- Evan MobleyCLE2.1± 1.3high
- Scottie BarnesTOR1.5± 1.4high
- Jarrett AllenCLE1.3± 0.7high
Steals
- Chucky HepburnTOR1.9± 2.1low
- Immanuel QuickleyTOR1.6± 0.9high
- Donovan MitchellCLE1.5± 1.8high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
CLE
league avg
TOR
55.6%
Effective FG%
54.4
54.5%
47.7%
FG%
47.0
48.1%
117.4
PPG
114.9
114.3
27.1
Assists / G
25.0
▶29.2
13.8
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶13.0