Recent form
7-3
DAL +6.4 vs SEA -12.6 margin
DAL brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
Dallas Wings at Seattle Storm
DAL
DAL
10-6
PregameMon, 10:00 PM EDTCW Seattle, Prime Video-Seattle, WNBA League Pass
SEA
SEA
3-14
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketPreview · WNBA
allas Wings visit Seattle Storm Monday at 6/22 - 10:00 PM EDT. DAL is 5-3 in their last 8.
Vegas opened DAL as a 8.5-point favorite with the total at 165.5. SEA's moneyline implies a 26% break-even, DAL the inverse.
For bettors: the DAL side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 165.5 total reads near the league average.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Updated 0s ago
Team stats
DAL
Away
Stat
SEA
Home
46
FG %
41
Season series
DAL leads series 1-0
Jun 2SEA56@DAL79
SEA56@DAL79Jun 23DAL@SEAtoday
DAL@SEAtodayAug 23SEA@DALupcoming
SEA@DALupcomingSep 24DAL@SEAupcoming
DAL@SEAupcomingModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
DAL -8.5
Between 7 and 10
Total
165.5
Standard · +0.5 vs avg
Moneyline
DAL-36078%SEA+28526%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 17 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
8.5
0.0 since open
Total
165.5
0.0 since open
Scouting report
DAL @ SEA
StorylineSEA lost 10 in a row.
Rest going in
DALStandard
2 days
last game Jun 20
SEAStandard
2 days
last game Jun 20
Model edge vs market
Lean onlySpread
Market
DAL -8.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Total
Market
165.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Moneyline
Market
DAL -360
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
DALmetricSEA
10-6
Record
3-14
#4
Conf rank
#8
+4.6
Pt diff
-7.5
W1
Streak
L10
7-3
Last 10
0-10
85.3
Sched ahead
75.4
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Betting line
DAL -8.5·O/U 165.5·DAL -360/SEA +285
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Scouting report · pre-game
SEA vs DAL.
SEA has dropped 10 straight; DAL is 7-3 over its last 10.
25.2%
model · SEA win prob
Recent form
- SEA0–10-12.6
- DAL7–3+6.4
Situational
- SEA2d rest
- DAL2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. SEA has 2 straight road games; DAL has 0.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Head-to-head · 3-2 · last 5
SEA is 3-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2025-05-20SEA @ DAL79–71
- 2025-06-04DAL @ SEA77–83
- 2025-07-23DAL @ SEA87–63
- 2025-08-22SEA @ DAL95–60
- 2026-06-01SEA @ DAL56–79
Line move
open +300→+285toward SEA
The market has moved 1pp toward the home side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
22.1%
ensemble · DAL favored
Elo Static
44.7%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
42.6%
P(SEA win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
39.7%
P(SEA win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
2.08 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
86% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
+0.92
CLV pp
Open price
+300
Close price
+285
Open no-vig
24.0%
Close no-vig
24.9%
Market came to the model
How we read this game
- Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DAL at SEA?
- The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
- When is the pick logged, and can it change?
- Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
Player projections
SEA vs DAL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Paige BueckersDAL18.0± 8.5medium
- Natisha HiedemanSEA15.6± 5.7medium
- Arike OgunbowaleDAL15.3± 10.7medium
Rebounds
- Jessica ShepardDAL11.6± 4.5medium
- Dominique MalongaSEA6.8± 4.0low
- Awa FamSEA5.6± 2.5low
Assists
- Paige BueckersDAL6.4± 3.9medium
- Jessica ShepardDAL5.2± 3.4medium
- Natisha HiedemanSEA4.3± 2.0medium
Blocks
- Azzi FuddDAL1.3± 1.6medium
- Awak KuierDAL1.1± 1.1low
- Dominique MalongaSEA1.1± 1.6low
Steals
- Azzi FuddDAL1.6± 1.6medium
- Jordan HorstonSEA1.3± 1.7medium
- Aziaha JamesDAL1.2± 1.3medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
DAL
league avg
SEA
45.8%
FG%
◀
44.6
41.1%
34.1%
3PT %
◀
33.4
33.4%
87.6
PPG
◀
85.7
77.2
23.1
Assists / G
◀
18.0
18.0
10.3
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
14.1