NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+11ORL

ORL

45-37

112101

DET

60-22

NBASun, Apr 19FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasDET -8.5

ORL · top performer

Wendell Carter Jr.

C · #34

22.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DET · top performer

Cade Cunningham

G · #2

26.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowORL ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 16pp · 3rd Quarter · 1:26

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. BancheroF · #5	37	23	8-15	2-4	5-7	+10	9	4
F. WagnerF · #22	32	19	7-13	1-2	4-5	+9	5	4
W. Carter Jr.C · #34	37	17	8-9	1-2	—	+20	7	5
D. BaneG · #3	35	17	7-20	1-8	2-2	+17	6	5
J. SuggsG · #4	36	16	6-16	3-10	1-1	+11	4	4
Bench
J. CainF · #8	9	2	1-2	0-1	—	-6	1	0
T. da SilvaF · #23	21	7	3-6	1-3	—	+6	4	0
G. BitadzeC · #35	11	4	1-2	—	2-2	-9	6	1
A. BlackG · #0	22	7	3-7	1-4	0-2	-3	3	3
Team		112	44-90	10-34	14-19		45	26
DNP: M. Wagner, N. Penda, J. Carter, J. Howard, J. Richardson

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. HarrisF · #12	36	17	5-15	1-7	6-7	-15	6	3
D. RobinsonF · #55	26	9	3-8	3-6	—	-14	0	4
J. DurenC · #0	33	8	3-4	—	2-4	-21	7	1
C. CunninghamG · #2	40	39	13-27	3-8	10-11	-1	5	4
A. ThompsonG · #9	25	8	3-7	—	2-2	-5	7	1
Bench
I. StewartF · #28	19	3	0-2	0-1	3-4	+6	4	0
R. Holland IIF · #5	11	2	1-2	—	—	-6	2	1
J. GreenG · #31	5	3	0-1	0-1	3-4	+4	1	1
C. LeVertG · #8	4	3	1-1	1-1	—	+1	3	1
K. HuerterG · #27	18	3	1-3	1-2	—	+7	2	1
D. JenkinsG · #24	22	6	1-7	1-6	3-6	-11	2	2
Team		101	31-77	10-32	29-38		39	19
DNP: P. Reed, T. Smith, M. Sasser, C. Lanier

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

ORL

Away

Stat

DET

Home

44-90

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

31-77

FG %

10-34

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-32

14-19

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

29-38

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

ORL leads series 1-0

Apr 19

ORL112@

DET101today

Apr 22

ORL83@

DET98

Apr 25

DET105@

ORL113

Apr 28

DET88@

ORL94

Apr 29

ORL109@

DET116

May 1

DET93@

ORL79

May 3

ORL94@

DET116

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -8.5

Between 7 and 10

Total

220.5

Standard · -5.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ORL+31024%

DET-39580%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -8.5↗SpreadBet DET -8.5↗

Line movement · 21 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

8.5

0.0 since open

Total

220.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ORL beat DET 112-101. W. Carter Jr. led with 17 PTS, 7 REB, 5 AST. ORL outscored the other side 35-27 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DET vs ORL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ORLstarters 82% of pts

Starters(5)

92 PTS · 31 REB · 22 AST

GS 77

Bench(4)

20 PTS · 14 REB · 4 AST

GS 17

DETstarters 80% of pts

Starters(5)

81 PTS · 25 REB · 13 AST

GS 56

Bench(6)

20 PTS · 14 REB · 6 AST

GS 20

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DET3rd Quarter · 1:26 · 79-70

+16pp→ 34% WP

Tristan · da Silva loose ball foul

ORL4th Quarter · 9:51 · 88-81

+11pp→ 70% WP

Jalen Suggs · makes 27-foot three pointer

ORL4th Quarter · 6:39 · 99-92

+12pp→ 75% WP

Tristan · da Silva makes 23-foot three point jumper (Wendell Carter Jr. assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
ORL	35	20	26	31	112
DET	27	24	23	27	101

Period scoring

ORL won 3 · DET won 1

Suggs 11

Cunningham 9

Banchero 8

Huerter 16

Bane 9

Cunningham 9

Wagner 11

Harris 18

ORL

DET

Shooting comparison

ORL

DET

49%

44-90

40%

31-77

29%

10-34

3PT

31%

10-32

74%

14-19

76%

29-38

Play-by-play · 476 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
ORL 112·DET 101
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ORL 112·DET 101
Q4·12.6
Wendell Carter Jr. defensive rebound
·
ORL 112·DET 101
Q4·12.6
Daniss Jenkins misses 26-foot three point jumper
ORL 112·DET 101
Q4·20.7
Wendell Carter Jr. makes running dunk (Franz Wagner assists)
· ·
ORL 112·DET 101
Q4·23.8
Tobias Harris lost ball turnover (Wendell Carter Jr. steals)
· ·
ORL 110·DET 101
−0.7pp
Q4·39.5
Wendell Carter Jr. makes driving layup (Franz Wagner assists)
· ·
ORL 110·DET 101
−2pp
Q4·1:03
Cade Cunningham makes driving layup
ORL 108·DET 101
+0.8pp
Q4·1:12
Tobias Harris defensive rebound
ORL 108·DET 99
Q4·1:12
Paolo Banchero misses 10-foot pullup jump shot
ORL 108·DET 99
Q4·1:33
Cade Cunningham makes free throw 2 of 2
ORL 108·DET 99
−0.9pp
Q4·1:33
Cade Cunningham makes free throw 1 of 2
ORL 108·DET 98
+1pp
Q4·1:33
Tristan da Silva enters the game for Jalen Suggs
·
ORL 108·DET 97
Q4·1:33
Jalen Suggs shooting foul
ORL 108·DET 97
+0.5pp
Q4·1:33
(01:33) [Pistons] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Pistons] retain their timeout
ORL 108·DET 97
Q4·1:33
Pistons Coach's Challenge
ORL 108·DET 97
−0.5pp
Q4·1:38
Jalen Duren defensive rebound
ORL 108·DET 97
Q4·1:41
Desmond Bane misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
ORL 108·DET 97
Q4·1:58
Wendell Carter Jr. defensive rebound
·
ORL 108·DET 97
Q4·2:02
Tobias Harris misses 24-foot three point jumper
ORL 108·DET 97
−0.7pp
Q4·2:13
Duncan Robinson enters the game for Isaiah Stewart
·
ORL 108·DET 97
Q4·2:13
Tobias Harris enters the game for Kevin Huerter
·
ORL 108·DET 97
Q4·2:13
Cade Cunningham makes technical free throw
ORL 108·DET 97
Q4·2:13
Franz Wagner technical foul
·
ORL 108·DET 96
+0.6pp
Q4·2:13
Jalen Suggs makes 2-foot layup (Franz Wagner assists)
· ·
ORL 108·DET 96
−0.9pp
Q4·2:19
Desmond Bane defensive rebound
ORL 106·DET 96
Q4·2:22
Daniss Jenkins misses 23-foot running jump shot
ORL 106·DET 96
−0.9pp
Q4·2:27
Paolo Banchero bad pass turnover (Isaiah Stewart steals)
·
ORL 106·DET 96
+0.7pp
Q4·2:42
Wendell Carter Jr. defensive rebound
·
ORL 106·DET 96
Q4·2:46
Wendell Carter Jr. blocks Cade Cunningham 's 4-foot driving layup
· ·
ORL 106·DET 96
−1pp

Betting line

DET -8.5·O/U 220.5·ORL +310/DET -395

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

rlando Magic went into Detroit Pistons and beat them, 112–101.

ORL +8.5 cashed (DET lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 220.5 by 7.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Cade CunninghamDET · G
TOUCHES9799+
Paolo BancheroORL · F
DRIVES18.699
Franz WagnerORL · F
DEFL4.399
Goga BitadzeORL · C
TS%70.099
Jalen DurenDET · C
TS%68.898

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · ORL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DET vs ORL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 145 high confidence

Points

Cade CunninghamDET
26.1± 9.6high
Paolo BancheroORL
23.9± 9.4high
Desmond BaneORL
18.8± 7.4high

Rebounds

Jalen DurenDET
9.1± 3.9high
Paolo BancheroORL
8.3± 2.3high
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL
7.4± 4.7high

Assists

Cade CunninghamDET
8.2± 2.8high
Paolo BancheroORL
6.0± 2.3high
Jalen SuggsORL
4.6± 1.5high

Blocks

Ausar ThompsonDET
1.5± 1.3high
Goga BitadzeORL
1.4± 1.2high
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL
1.3± 0.7high

Steals

Ausar ThompsonDET
2.0± 1.8high
Jalen SuggsORL
1.8± 1.5high
Anthony BlackORL
1.5± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

ORL

league avg

DET

52.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

54.2%

45.9%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.0%

114.2

PPG

114.9

▶

115.9

26.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.0

13.7

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.3

Data via ESPN · hoopR