PHX
45-37
OKC
64-18
PHX · top performer
Devin Booker
G · #1
23
Pts
6
Reb
2
Ast
OKC · top performer
Jalen Williams
G · #8
22
Pts
7
Reb
6
Ast
Biggest swing: 10pp · 1st Quarter · 6:50
NBA · Phoenix Suns at Oklahoma City Thunder · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 32 | 18 | 6-22 | 3-10 | 3-3 | -18 | 7 | 2 | |
| 26 | 0 | 0-3 | — | — | -19 | 9 | 3 | |
| 33 | 23 | 8-17 | 2-5 | 5-7 | -25 | 6 | 2 | |
| 5 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-3 | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 32 | 17 | 6-16 | 2-7 | 3-4 | -19 | 5 | 1 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 23 | 4 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1-2 | -23 | 3 | 3 | |
| 7 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | — | -11 | 2 | 1 | |
| 25 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-3 | — | -14 | 5 | 1 | |
| 8 | 9 | 3-3 | 3-3 | — | -1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 15 | 0 | 0-2 | — | — | -10 | 3 | 0 | |
| 4 | 0 | — | — | — | +1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 23 | 8 | 3-6 | 2-4 | — | -35 | 2 | 2 | |
| 8 | 3 | 1-3 | — | 1-2 | -1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Team | 84 | 29-83 | 13-39 | 13-18 | 45 | 16 | ||
| DNP: G. Allen | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 20 | 8 | 4-4 | — | — | +7 | 8 | 2 | |
| 25 | 16 | 5-10 | 2-6 | 4-4 | +12 | 7 | 0 | |
| 29 | 25 | 5-18 | 0-4 | 15-17 | +24 | 4 | 7 | |
| 24 | 8 | 3-8 | 2-6 | — | +8 | 2 | 2 | |
| 29 | 22 | 9-15 | 2-5 | 2-2 | +22 | 7 | 6 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 10 | 5 | 2-5 | 1-4 | — | +24 | 4 | 2 | |
| 13 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-1 | — | +14 | 5 | 1 | |
| 8 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-2 | — | +1 | 4 | 1 | |
| 20 | 9 | 3-8 | 3-8 | — | +12 | 2 | 1 | |
| 8 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | — | +1 | 2 | 1 | |
| 21 | 6 | 3-5 | 0-2 | — | +23 | 4 | 2 | |
| 8 | 5 | 2-5 | 1-3 | — | +6 | 0 | 0 | |
| 22 | 9 | 3-7 | 3-4 | — | +22 | 5 | 2 | |
| 4 | 0 | — | — | — | -1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 119 | 42-93 | 14-46 | 21-23 | 54 | 28 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
35
FG %
45
16
Ast
28
Team stats
PHX
Away
Stat
OKC
Home
29-83
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
42-93
35
FG %
45
13-39
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
14-46
13-18
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
21-23
16
Assists
28
17
Turnovers
6
Playoff series
OKC leads series 1-0
PHX84@OKC119todayPHX107@OKC120OKC121@PHX109OKC131@PHX122Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
OKC -16.5
Between 10 and —
Total
216.5
Defensive · -9.5 vs avg
Moneyline
PHX+85011%OKC-145094%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 19 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
16.5
0.0 since open
Total
216.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
OKC beat PHX 119-84. Jal. Williams led with 22 PTS, 7 REB, 6 AST. OKC outscored the other side 35-20 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
OKC vs PHX
Starters vs bench
production by unitPHXstarters 71% of ptsStarters(5)
60 PTS · 27 REB · 8 AST
GS 29
Bench(8)
24 PTS · 18 REB · 8 AST
GS 17
OKCstarters 66% of ptsStarters(5)
79 PTS · 28 REB · 17 AST
GS 76
Bench(9)
40 PTS · 26 REB · 11 AST
GS 41
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactDevin Booker · personal foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 20 | 24 | 22 | 18 | 84 |
| OKC | 35 | 30 | 32 | 22 | 119 |
Period scoring
PHX won 0 · OKC won 4
Q1
Booker 8
Holmgren 13
Q2
Brooks 9
Hartenstein 7
Q3
Booker 10
Gilgeous-Alexander 10
Q4
Fleming 9
Joe 9
Shooting comparison
35%
29-83
FG
45%
42-93
33%
13-39
3PT
30%
14-46
72%
13-18
FT
91%
21-23
Play-by-play · 477 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 84·OKC 119
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 84·OKC 119
- Q4·13.0
shot clock turnover
PHX 84·OKC 119
- Q4·36.7
Jamaree Bouyea makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 84·OKC 119
- Q4·36.7
Suns offensive team rebound
PHX 83·OKC 119
- Q4·36.7
Jamaree Bouyea misses free throw 1 of 2
PHX 83·OKC 119
- Q4·36.7
Jared McCain personal foul
PHX 83·OKC 119
- Q4·51.7
Kenrich Williams makes 1-foot two point shot
· ·
PHX 83·OKC 119
- Q4·1:01
Aaron Wiggins defensive rebound
PHX 83·OKC 117
- Q4·1:04
Jamaree Bouyea misses 10-foot two point shot
PHX 83·OKC 117
- Q4·1:21
Jared McCain personal foul
PHX 83·OKC 117
- Q4·1:21
Jamaree Bouyea defensive rebound
PHX 83·OKC 117
- Q4·1:24
Isaiah Joe misses 24-foot three point jumper
PHX 83·OKC 117
- Q4·1:31
Kenrich Williams defensive rebound
· ·
PHX 83·OKC 117
- Q4·1:34
Ryan Dunn misses 23-foot three point pullup jump shot
PHX 83·OKC 117
- Q4·1:52
Aaron Wiggins lost ball turnover (Jamaree Bouyea steals)
·
PHX 83·OKC 117
- Q4·2:03
Kenrich Williams offensive rebound
· ·
PHX 83·OKC 117
- Q4·2:03
Jared McCain misses 24-foot three point jumper
PHX 83·OKC 117
- Q4·2:05
Kenrich Williams offensive rebound
· ·
PHX 83·OKC 117
- Q4·2:08
Aaron Wiggins misses 23-foot three point jumper
PHX 83·OKC 117
- Q4·2:22
Rasheer Fleming makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ryan Dunn assists)
·
PHX 83·OKC 117
- Q4·2:39
Ryan Dunn defensive rebound
PHX 80·OKC 117
- Q4·2:42
Kenrich Williams misses 27-foot three point jumper
· ·
PHX 80·OKC 117
- Q4·2:57
Jamaree Bouyea makes 2-foot two point shot
PHX 80·OKC 117
- Q4·3:11
Ryan Dunn defensive rebound
PHX 78·OKC 117
- Q4·3:14
Jared McCain misses 23-foot three point step back jumpshot
PHX 78·OKC 117
- Q4·3:27
shot clock turnover
PHX 78·OKC 117
- Q4·3:55
Jared McCain makes 22-foot running jump shot (Nikola Topic assists)
·
PHX 78·OKC 117
- Q4·4:00
Amir Coffey lost ball turnover (Isaiah Joe steals)
·
PHX 78·OKC 114
- Q4·4:16
Amir Coffey enters the game for Collin Gillespie
·
PHX 78·OKC 114
Betting line
OKC -16.5·O/U 216.5·PHX +850/OKC -1450
Recap · NBA
klahoma City Thunder held off Phoenix Suns, 119–84. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
OKC -16.5 cashed (won by 35). Total stayed UNDER 216.5 by 13.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
Chet HolmgrenOKC · CCONT10.799+
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC · GDRIVES18.399
Jalen GreenPHX · GUSG%31.798- Devin BookerPHX · GUSG%31.397
- Jalen WilliamsOKC · GDRIVES12.594
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · PHX favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
OKC vs PHX.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
145
projections · 130 high confidence
Points
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC27.7± 6.8high
- Devin BookerPHX24.6± 6.2high
- Jalen GreenPHX21.0± 10.3high
Rebounds
- Isaiah HartensteinOKC8.6± 3.9high
- Chet HolmgrenOKC8.0± 3.0high
- Oso IghodaroPHX5.5± 3.2high
Assists
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC7.6± 3.1high
- Devin BookerPHX5.8± 2.3high
- Ajay MitchellOKC4.2± 2.6high
Blocks
- Chet HolmgrenOKC1.4± 0.9high
- Branden CarlsonOKC0.9± 1.6high
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC0.8± 0.8high
Steals
- Cason WallaceOKC2.0± 1.0high
- Jordan GoodwinPHX1.8± 2.1high
- Alex CarusoOKC1.5± 1.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
PHX
league avg
OKC
53.7%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶55.9%
45.5%
FG%
47.0
▶48.2%
112.2
PPG
114.9
▶118.5
24.5
Assists / G
25.0
▶25.8
13.6
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶11.9