NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+11DEN

MIN

49-33

105116

DEN

54-28

NBASat, Apr 18FinalSeriesDEN wins series 3-1VegasDEN -7.5

MIN · top performer

Anthony Edwards

G · #5

16.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DEN · top performer

Nikola Jokic

C · #15

22.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIN ↔ DEN

Biggest swing: 13pp · 4th Quarter · 2:25

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. RandleF · #30	31	16	7-16	0-3	2-2	-9	7	2
J. McDanielsF · #3	33	16	6-14	0-4	4-4	-17	8	3
R. GobertC · #27	38	17	8-9	—	1-5	-8	10	2
D. DiVincenzoG · #0	31	12	4-9	4-7	—	0	4	2
A. EdwardsG · #5	38	22	7-19	2-9	6-7	-3	9	7
Bench
K. AndersonF · #12	7	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
N. ReidC · #11	17	5	2-6	1-2	—	-7	3	2
M. ConleyG · #10	11	3	1-1	1-1	—	0	1	2
A. DosunmuG · #13	28	14	5-10	3-7	1-1	-8	0	1
B. HylandG · #8	5	0	0-3	0-1	—	-3	1	0
Team		105	40-87	11-34	14-19		43	21
DNP: J. Ingles, J. Phillips, J. Beringer, J. Clark, T. Shannon Jr.

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. GordonF · #32	29	17	5-10	1-5	6-8	+8	8	3
C. JohnsonF · #23	33	12	5-12	2-7	—	+5	0	1
N. JokicC · #15	40	25	11-19	2-7	1-1	+9	13	11
J. MurrayG · #27	39	30	7-22	0-8	16-16	+13	5	7
C. BraunG · #0	36	12	4-10	2-3	2-2	0	8	1
Bench
S. JonesF · #21	9	5	1-1	1-1	2-3	+2	0	0
J. ValanciunasC · #17	8	0	—	—	—	+2	3	0
T. Hardaway Jr.G · #10	24	7	2-6	1-3	2-2	+9	3	1
B. BrownG · #11	21	8	3-7	1-2	1-1	+7	7	3
Team		116	38-87	10-36	30-33		47	27
DNP: Z. Nnaji, D. Holmes II, T. Jones, J. Pickett, J. Strawther

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

DEN

Home

40-87

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

38-87

FG %

11-34

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-36

14-19

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

30-33

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

DEN leads series 1-0

Apr 18

MIN105@

DEN116today

Apr 21

MIN119@

DEN114

Apr 24

DEN96@

MIN113

Apr 26

DEN96@

MIN112

Apr 28

MIN113@

DEN125

May 1

DEN98@

MIN110

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DEN -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

Total

232.5

Standard · +6.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIN+22031%

DEN-27073%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DEN -7.5↗SpreadBet DEN -7.5↗

Line movement · 16 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

0.0 since open

Total

232.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DEN beat MIN 116-105. N. Jokic stuffed the line with 25 PTS, 13 REB, and 11 AST. DEN outscored the other side 29-17 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DEN vs MIN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MINstarters 79% of pts

Starters(5)

83 PTS · 38 REB · 16 AST

GS 62

Bench(5)

22 PTS · 5 REB · 5 AST

GS 13

DENstarters 83% of pts

Starters(5)

96 PTS · 34 REB · 23 AST

GS 73

Bench(4)

20 PTS · 13 REB · 4 AST

GS 20

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DEN2nd Quarter · 11:45 · 33-26

+7pp→ 48% WP

Bruce Brown · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)

DEN4th Quarter · 6:09 · 95-99

+8pp→ 86% WP

Rudy Gobert · shooting foul

DEN4th Quarter · 2:25 · 101-106

+13pp→ 89% WP

Anthony Edwards · misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIN	33	29	17	26	105
DEN	23	39	29	25	116

Period scoring

MIN won 2 · DEN won 2

McDaniels 10

Gordon 8

Gobert 8

Murray 30

McDaniels 4

Gordon 22

Randle 8

Jokic 7

MIN

DEN

Shooting comparison

MIN

DEN

46%

40-87

44%

38-87

32%

11-34

3PT

28%

10-36

74%

14-19

91%

30-33

Play-by-play · 484 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 105·DEN 116
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 105·DEN 116
Q4·5.9
shot clock turnover
MIN 105·DEN 116
Q4·30.0
Julius Randle makes 1-foot driving dunk
MIN 105·DEN 116
Q4·33.9
Tim Hardaway Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 103·DEN 116
Q4·33.9
Christian Braun enters the game for Jamal Murray
·
MIN 103·DEN 115
Q4·33.9
Bruce Brown enters the game for Cameron Johnson
·
MIN 103·DEN 115
Q4·33.9
Tim Hardaway Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 103·DEN 115
Q4·33.9
Donte DiVincenzo personal take foul
MIN 103·DEN 114
Q4·38.4
Ayo Dosunmu enters the game for Rudy Gobert
·
MIN 103·DEN 114
Q4·38.4
Tim Hardaway Jr. enters the game for Bruce Brown
·
MIN 103·DEN 114
Q4·38.4
Jamal Murray enters the game for Christian Braun
·
MIN 103·DEN 114
Q4·38.4
Nuggets Full timeout
MIN 103·DEN 114
Q4·38.4
Anthony Edwards makes 1-foot two point shot
MIN 103·DEN 114
Q4·43.8
Nikola Jokic makes two point shot (Aaron Gordon assists)
·
MIN 101·DEN 114
Q4·46.2
Aaron Gordon defensive rebound
MIN 101·DEN 112
Q4·49.5
Anthony Edwards misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
MIN 101·DEN 112
Q4·53.2
Donte DiVincenzo enters the game for Ayo Dosunmu
·
MIN 101·DEN 112
Q4·53.2
Bruce Brown enters the game for Jamal Murray
·
MIN 101·DEN 112
Q4·53.2
Timberwolves Full timeout
MIN 101·DEN 112
Q4·53.2
Cameron Johnson makes 12-foot pullup jump shot (Nikola Jokic assists)
·
MIN 101·DEN 112
Q4·1:14
Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
MIN 101·DEN 110
Q4·1:16
Jaden McDaniels misses 23-foot three point jumper
MIN 101·DEN 110
+0.6pp
Q4·1:16
Jaden McDaniels offensive rebound
MIN 101·DEN 110
−0.7pp
Q4·1:20
Rudy Gobert misses free throw 2 of 2
MIN 101·DEN 110
+0.7pp
Q4·1:20
Timberwolves offensive team rebound
MIN 101·DEN 110
+0.9pp
Q4·1:20
Rudy Gobert misses free throw 1 of 2
MIN 101·DEN 110
+1pp
Q4·1:20
Jamal Murray shooting foul
MIN 101·DEN 110
−2pp
Q4·1:26
Julius Randle defensive rebound
MIN 101·DEN 110
Q4·1:28
Aaron Gordon misses free throw 2 of 2
MIN 101·DEN 110
−1pp

Betting line

DEN -7.5·O/U 232.5·MIN +220/DEN -270

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

enver Nuggets held off Minnesota Timberwolves, 116–105.

DEN -7.5 cashed (won by 11). Total stayed UNDER 232.5 by 11.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Nikola JokicDEN · C
TOUCHES12399+
Rudy GobertMIN · C
CONT1299+
Jamal MurrayDEN · G
TOUCHES82.297
Anthony EdwardsMIN · G
USG%31.397
Jonas ValanciunasDEN · C
USG%26.790

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DEN vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Nikola JokicDEN
26.6± 7.0high
Jamal MurrayDEN
24.2± 8.1high
Anthony EdwardsMIN
23.7± 9.4high

Rebounds

Nikola JokicDEN
12.5± 3.1high
Rudy GobertMIN
10.1± 3.9high
Naz ReidMIN
7.1± 1.4high

Assists

Nikola JokicDEN
9.7± 4.5high
Jamal MurrayDEN
6.4± 1.9high
Ayo DosunmuMIN
3.9± 3.1high

Blocks

Rudy GobertMIN
1.4± 1.2high
Joan BeringerMIN
1.1± 2.1high
Nikola JokicDEN
1.0± 1.0high

Steals

Bruce BrownDEN
1.3± 1.5high
Nikola JokicDEN
1.3± 1.7high
Donte DiVincenzoMIN
1.2± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MIN

league avg

DEN

55.1%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

57.2%

47.6%

FG%

47.0

▶

49.2%

116.8

PPG

114.9

▶

121.1

25.7

Assists / G

25.0

▶

28.7

14.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR