NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+15PHX

37-45

96111

PHX

45-37

NBAFri, Apr 17FinalSeriesGS wins series 3-1VegasPHX -2.5

GS · top performer

De'Anthony Melton

G · #8

15.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

PHX · top performer

Jalen Green

G · #4

33.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowGS ↔ PHX

Biggest swing: 6pp · 2nd Quarter · 2.6

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. GreenF · #23	36	5	2-4	0-2	1-2	-13	2	6
G. SantosF · #15	30	9	4-8	0-3	1-2	-8	6	4
K. PorzingisC · #7	15	11	3-5	2-3	3-4	-22	1	0
S. CurryG · #30	36	17	4-16	3-10	6-6	-13	4	4
B. PodziemskiG · #2	39	23	9-17	3-5	2-3	-5	10	0
Bench
A. HorfordC · #20	26	9	3-8	1-4	2-2	-3	5	2
C. BasseyC · #28	1	0	—	—	—	+2	0	0
Se. CurryG · #31	1	0	—	—	—	+2	0	0
G. Payton IIG · #0	26	4	2-4	0-1	—	-10	3	3
D. MeltonG · #8	28	16	5-10	2-4	4-4	-9	8	3
P. SpencerG · #61	1	2	1-2	0-1	—	+2	0	0
W. RichardG · #3	1	0	—	—	—	+2	0	0
Team		96	33-74	11-33	19-23		39	22

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. BrooksF · #3	30	13	4-14	3-8	2-2	+21	1	4
O. IghodaroF · #11	26	10	4-6	—	2-2	-1	6	1
D. BookerG · #1	42	20	5-12	0-4	10-10	+25	6	8
J. GoodwinG · #23	34	19	7-11	4-7	1-1	+17	9	2
J. GreenG · #4	40	36	14-20	8-14	—	+22	6	4
Bench
R. O'NealeF · #00	26	11	4-11	3-10	—	-4	2	1
H. HighsmithF · #19	10	0	0-3	0-3	—	+8	1	1
R. DunnF · #0	7	0	0-1	0-1	—	-2	0	0
R. FlemingF · #20	1	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
K. MaluachC · #10	5	0	0-1	0-1	—	+2	2	0
A. CoffeyG · #2	1	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
C. GillespieG · #12	17	2	1-2	0-1	—	-7	2	2
J. BouyeaG · #17	1	0	—	—	—	-2	1	0
Team		111	39-81	18-49	15-15		36	23
DNP: G. Allen

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

PHX

Home

33-74

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

39-81

FG %

11-33

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

18-49

19-23

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-15

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

GS wins series 3-1

Nov 5

PHX107@

GS118

Dec 19

GS98@

PHX99

Dec 21

PHX116@

GS119

Feb 6

GS101@

PHX97

Season series

Apr 18

GS96@

PHX111today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHX -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

219.5

Standard · -6.5 vs avg

Moneyline

GS+12445%

PHX-14860%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHX -2.5↗SpreadBet PHX -2.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

219.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHX beat GS 111-96. J. Green led the way with 36 points and 6 rebounds. PHX outscored the other side 33-15 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

PHX vs GS

Starters vs bench

production by unit

GSstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

65 PTS · 23 REB · 14 AST

GS 38

Bench(7)

31 PTS · 16 REB · 8 AST

GS 27

PHXstarters 88% of pts

Starters(5)

98 PTS · 28 REB · 19 AST

GS 90

Bench(8)

13 PTS · 8 REB · 4 AST

GS 6

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
GS	15	30	24	27	96
PHX	33	17	28	33	111

Period scoring

GS won 1 · PHX won 3

Porzingis 5

Brooks 8

Podziemski 10

Green 8

Melton 9

Green 13

Curry 10

Goodwin 11

PHX

Shooting comparison

PHX

45%

33-74

48%

39-81

33%

11-33

3PT

37%

18-49

83%

19-23

100%

15-15

Play-by-play · 460 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
GS 96·PHX 111
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
GS 96·PHX 111
Q4·0.5
Pat Spencer makes 14-foot pullup jump shot
GS 96·PHX 111
Q4·8.1
shot clock turnover
GS 94·PHX 111
Q4·30.8
Jamaree Bouyea defensive rebound
GS 94·PHX 111
Q4·34.2
Pat Spencer misses 28-foot three point step back jumpshot
GS 94·PHX 111
Q4·49.7
De'Anthony Melton defensive rebound
GS 94·PHX 111
Q4·53.8
Khaman Maluach misses 26-foot three point jumper
GS 94·PHX 111
Q4·1:04
Devin Booker ejected
GS 94·PHX 111
Q4·1:04
Seth Curry enters the game for Brandin Podziemski
· ·
GS 94·PHX 111
Q4·1:04
Rasheer Fleming enters the game for Jordan Goodwin
·
GS 94·PHX 111
Q4·1:04
Ryan Dunn enters the game for Jalen Green
· ·
GS 94·PHX 111
Q4·1:04
Amir Coffey enters the game for Dillon Brooks
·
GS 94·PHX 111
Q4·1:04
Jamaree Bouyea enters the game for Devin Booker
·
GS 94·PHX 111
Q4·1:04
Khaman Maluach enters the game for Royce O'Neale
·
GS 94·PHX 111
Q4·1:04
Draymond Green ejected
·
GS 94·PHX 111
Q4·1:04
Double technical foul: Draymond Green and Devin Booker
· ·
GS 94·PHX 111
Q4·1:06
(01:06) [Warriors] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
GS 94·PHX 111
Q4·1:06
Double technical foul: Draymond Green and Devin Booker
· ·
GS 94·PHX 111
Q4·1:06
Devin Booker makes free throw 1 of 1
GS 94·PHX 111
Q4·1:06
Will Richard enters the game for Stephen Curry
· ·
GS 94·PHX 110
Q4·1:06
Charles Bassey enters the game for Draymond Green
· ·
GS 94·PHX 110
Q4·1:06
Pat Spencer enters the game for Al Horford
·
GS 94·PHX 110
Q4·1:06
Draymond Green away from play foul
·
GS 94·PHX 110
Q4·1:09
Royce O'Neale defensive rebound
GS 94·PHX 110
Q4·1:14
De'Anthony Melton misses 28-foot three point jumper
GS 94·PHX 110
Q4·1:21
Jordan Goodwin makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dillon Brooks assists)
·
GS 94·PHX 110
Q4·1:39
Brandin Podziemski makes 30-foot three point jumper (De'Anthony Melton assists)
·
GS 94·PHX 107
Q4·1:44
Jordan Goodwin makes 10-foot running dunk
GS 91·PHX 107
Q4·1:46
Al Horford bad pass turnover (Jordan Goodwin steals)
·
GS 91·PHX 105

Betting line

PHX -2.5·O/U 219.5·GS +124/PHX -148

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

hoenix Suns held off Golden State Warriors, 111–96.

PHX -2.5 cashed (won by 15). Total stayed UNDER 219.5 by 12.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Kristaps PorzingisGS · C
CONT9.498
Jalen GreenPHX · G
USG%31.798
Stephen CurryGS · G
USG%31.597
Devin BookerPHX · G
USG%31.397
Dillon BrooksPHX · F
USG%28.694

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · GS favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHX vs GS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Stephen CurryGS
25.2± 8.3high
Devin BookerPHX
24.6± 6.2high
Jalen GreenPHX
21.0± 10.3high

Rebounds

Kristaps PorzingisGS
5.6± 2.4high
Oso IghodaroPHX
5.5± 3.2high
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
5.4± 1.6high

Assists

Draymond GreenGS
6.6± 3.0high
Devin BookerPHX
5.8± 2.3high
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
4.8± 1.7high

Blocks

Al HorfordGS
1.1± 1.3high
Charles BasseyGS
0.9± 1.1medium
Oso IghodaroPHX
0.8± 0.7high

Steals

Jordan GoodwinPHX
1.8± 2.1high
De'Anthony MeltonGS
1.5± 1.4high
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
1.5± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

PHX

55.1%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.7%

46.2%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.5%

114.5

PPG

◀

114.9

112.2

28.8

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.5

15.1

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR