NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3MIA

MIA

26-23

116113

CHI

23-25

NBAThu, Jan 29FinalSeriesMIA leads series 2-0VegasMIA -2.5

MIA · top performer

Jaime Jaquez Jr.

F · #11

23.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CHI · top performer

Ayo Dosunmu

G · #11

17.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIA ↔ CHI

Biggest swing: 21pp · 4th Quarter · 10.1

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. WigginsF · #22	33	10	4-9	1-3	1-2	-8	3	2
B. AdebayoC · #13	34	20	7-19	2-8	4-4	+6	12	2
N. PowellG · #24	30	21	7-16	2-4	5-6	-8	0	1
P. LarssonG · #9	29	15	4-8	1-2	6-7	-5	6	3
K. JakucionisG · #25	13	0	0-1	0-1	—	+1	3	4
Bench
S. FontecchioF · #0	18	0	0-4	0-4	—	+13	2	3
J. Jaquez Jr.F · #11	32	19	8-13	1-3	2-2	+4	10	6
N. JovicF · #5	17	8	4-9	0-3	—	+12	4	1
K. WareC · #7	12	12	4-6	3-4	1-2	-4	4	2
D. SmithG · #12	23	11	4-8	2-4	1-1	+4	5	5
Team		116	42-93	12-36	20-24		49	29
DNP: M. Gardner, K. Johnson

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. SmithF · #25	15	11	4-7	1-1	2-2	-11	5	0
I. OkoroF · #35	26	8	3-7	2-3	—	-7	2	0
M. BuzelisF · #14	34	16	6-15	2-5	2-3	+2	9	4
N. VucevicC · #9	37	15	6-18	1-5	2-2	+9	10	3
C. WhiteG · #0	32	14	2-11	2-8	8-10	+5	4	8
Bench
P. WilliamsF · #44	12	0	0-4	0-1	—	-10	1	0
D. TerryF · #7	15	8	2-3	2-2	2-2	-4	4	2
J. PhillipsF · #15	5	3	1-1	—	1-2	+3	0	0
K. HuerterG · #13	33	15	5-12	4-9	1-2	+3	10	3
A. DosunmuG · #11	31	23	8-16	1-4	6-6	-5	7	5
Team		113	37-94	15-38	24-29		52	25
DNP: J. Carter, Y. Kawamura, Olbrich

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

CHI

Home

42-93

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

37-94

FG %

12-36

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

15-38

20-24

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

24-29

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MIA leads series 2-0

Nov 22

MIA143@

CHI107

Jan 9

MIA0@

CHI0

Jan 30

MIA116@

CHI113today

Feb 1

CHI125@

MIA118

Feb 1

CHI91@

MIA134

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIA -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

237.5

High-scoring · +11.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIA-13057%

CHI+11048%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIA -2.5↗SpreadBet MIA -2.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

237.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIA beat CHI 116-113. J. Jaquez Jr. led with 19 PTS, 10 REB, 6 AST. MIA outscored the other side 28-20 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CHI vs MIA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MIAstarters 57% of pts

Starters(5)

66 PTS · 24 REB · 12 AST

GS 45

Bench(5)

50 PTS · 25 REB · 17 AST

GS 53

CHIstarters 57% of pts

Starters(5)

64 PTS · 30 REB · 15 AST

GS 45

Bench(5)

49 PTS · 22 REB · 10 AST

GS 39

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CHI1st Quarter · 5:59 · 21-18

+19pp→ 32% WP

Kevin Huerter · enters the game for Jalen Smith

CHI4th Quarter · 10.1 · 112-109

+21pp→ 38% WP

Norman Powell · loose ball foul

MIA4th Quarter · 8.9 · 112-111

+18pp→ 90% WP

Coby White · personal take foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIA	34	28	29	25	116
CHI	31	20	34	28	113

Period scoring

MIA won 2 · CHI won 2

Adebayo 7

Smith 9

Adebayo 7

White 28

Powell 8

Dosunmu 12

Larsson 6

Dosunmu 15

MIA

CHI

Shooting comparison

MIA

CHI

45%

42-93

39%

37-94

33%

12-36

3PT

39%

15-38

83%

20-24

83%

24-29

Play-by-play · 508 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIA 116·CHI 113
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIA 116·CHI 113
−1pp
Q4·1.5
Jaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound
MIA 116·CHI 113
Q4·1.5
Coby White misses 28-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
MIA 116·CHI 113
−6pp
Q4·4.6
Dru Smith enters the game for Norman Powell
· ·
MIA 116·CHI 113
Q4·4.6
Coby White enters the game for Isaac Okoro
·
MIA 116·CHI 113
Q4·4.6
Bulls Full timeout
MIA 116·CHI 113
Q4·4.6
Pelle Larsson makes 1-foot driving dunk (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIA 116·CHI 113
−13pp
Q4·7.1
Norman Powell enters the game for Dru Smith
· ·
MIA 114·CHI 113
Q4·7.1
Isaac Okoro enters the game for Coby White
·
MIA 114·CHI 113
Q4·7.1
Heat Full timeout
MIA 114·CHI 113
Q4·7.1
Coby White makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
MIA 114·CHI 113
−9pp
Q4·7.1
Coby White makes free throw 1 of 2
MIA 114·CHI 112
+3pp
Q4·7.1
Pelle Larsson personal foulBIG MOMENT
MIA 114·CHI 111
+12pp
Q4·8.9
Dru Smith enters the game for Norman Powell
· ·
MIA 114·CHI 111
Q4·8.9
Bulls Full timeout
MIA 114·CHI 111
Q4·8.9
Norman Powell makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
MIA 114·CHI 111
+6pp
Q4·8.9
Norman Powell makes free throw 1 of 2
MIA 113·CHI 111
−2pp
Q4·8.9
Coby White personal take foulBIG MOMENT
MIA 112·CHI 111
−18pp
Q4·10.1
Heat Full timeout
MIA 112·CHI 111
Q4·10.1
Ayo Dosunmu makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
MIA 112·CHI 111
−13pp
Q4·10.1
Ayo Dosunmu makes free throw 1 of 2
MIA 112·CHI 110
+4pp
Q4·10.1
Norman Powell loose ball foulBIG MOMENT
MIA 112·CHI 109
+21pp
Q4·10.3
Norman Powell lost ball turnover
MIA 112·CHI 109
+4pp
Q4·28.9
Coby White lost ball turnover (Pelle Larsson steals)BIG MOMENT
·
MIA 112·CHI 109
−10pp
Q4·31.0
Kevin Huerter defensive rebound
MIA 112·CHI 109
+2pp
Q4·32.1
Andrew Wiggins misses tip shotBIG MOMENT
MIA 112·CHI 109
+7pp
Q4·32.1
Andrew Wiggins offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
MIA 112·CHI 109
−7pp
Q4·35.4
Bam Adebayo misses 8-foot floating jump shot
MIA 112·CHI 109
+5pp
Q4·54.2
Nikola Vucevic makes 4-foot two point shot (Coby White assists)
·
MIA 112·CHI 109
+4pp

Betting line

MIA -2.5·O/U 237.5·MIA -130/CHI +110

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

iami Heat went into Chicago Bulls and beat them, 116–113. Decided by 3.

MIA -2.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 237.5 by 8.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIL · F
DRIVES13.295
Matas BuzelisCHI · F
CONT7.995
Coby WhiteCHA · G
USG%29.195
Andrew WigginsMIA · F
CONT7.693
Bam AdebayoMIA · C
CONT6.891

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHI vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 125 high confidence

Points

Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
25.0± 4.5high
Norman PowellCHI
18.4± 5.3high
Bam AdebayoMIA
18.4± 7.8high

Rebounds

Bam AdebayoMIA
10.3± 3.7high
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
9.9± 4.4high
Josh GiddeyCHI
8.1± 4.3high

Assists

Josh GiddeyCHI
9.9± 4.4high
Davion MitchellMIA
5.9± 2.8high
Tre JonesCHI
5.2± 2.9high

Blocks

Matas BuzelisCHI
1.5± 1.4high
Jalen SmithCHI
0.9± 1.0high
Josh GiddeyCHI
0.9± 1.0high

Steals

Dru SmithMIA
1.3± 1.8high
Bam AdebayoMIA
1.2± 0.8high
Josh GiddeyCHI
1.1± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MIA

league avg

CHI

54.2%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

54.7%

46.8%

FG%

47.0

46.9%

120.9

PPG

◀

114.9

116.3

29.0

Assists / G

◀

25.0

28.5

13.0

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR