NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+36DEN

HOU

40-25

93129

DEN

40-26

NBAWed, Mar 11FinalSeriesDEN wins series 3-1VegasDEN -6.5

HOU · top performer

Amen Thompson

G · #1

11.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DEN · top performer

Nikola Jokic

C · #15

23.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowHOU ↔ DEN

Biggest swing: 9pp · 3rd Quarter · 8:37

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. DurantF · #7	26	11	5-8	0-2	1-1	-18	4	5
J. Smith Jr.F · #10	28	11	5-10	1-2	—	-12	7	2
T. EasonF · #17	22	8	4-9	0-4	—	-17	8	2
A. SengunC · #28	24	10	5-8	0-1	0-4	-17	2	3
A. ThompsonG · #1	30	16	8-14	0-1	0-1	-17	5	4
Bench
J. GreenF · #32	8	0	0-3	0-3	—	-3	1	0
I. CrawfordF · #27	12	5	1-5	0-2	3-4	-12	3	1
C. CapelaC · #30	24	9	4-7	—	1-2	-19	7	0
A. HolidayG · #0	16	2	1-10	0-4	—	-17	1	3
J. OkogieG · #20	24	12	5-11	2-5	0-2	-22	4	3
R. SheppardG · #15	27	9	4-12	1-9	—	-26	2	2
Team		93	42-97	4-33	5-14		44	25
DNP: D. Finney-Smith

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. GordonF · #32	22	0	0-3	0-2	—	+17	4	1
C. JohnsonF · #23	25	17	6-9	3-5	2-2	+23	2	4
N. JokicC · #15	30	16	6-12	0-2	4-5	+27	12	13
J. MurrayG · #27	31	30	11-21	3-4	5-6	+25	2	4
C. BraunG · #0	26	19	8-10	3-4	—	+20	4	3
Bench
Z. NnajiF · #22	6	1	0-2	0-1	1-2	+2	1	0
S. JonesF · #21	20	0	0-2	—	—	+17	3	2
D. RoddyF · #45	6	2	0-1	0-1	2-2	+2	4	1
J. ValanciunasC · #17	12	12	6-6	—	—	+7	5	3
T. Hardaway Jr.G · #10	21	14	5-9	4-6	—	+15	3	1
T. JonesG · #5	8	2	1-2	0-1	0-1	+3	0	2
B. BrownG · #11	20	7	2-5	1-2	2-4	+17	1	2
J. PickettG · #24	6	3	1-2	1-2	—	+2	0	0
J. StrawtherG · #3	8	6	2-3	2-2	—	+3	1	0
Team		129	48-87	17-32	16-22		42	36

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

DEN

Home

42-97

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

48-87

FG %

4-33

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

17-32

5-14

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

16-22

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

DEN wins series 3-1

Nov 22

DEN112@

HOU109

Dec 16

HOU125@

DEN128

Dec 20

HOU115@

DEN101

Mar 12

HOU93@

DEN129today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DEN -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

Total

232.5

Standard · +6.5 vs avg

Moneyline

HOU+21532%

DEN-26573%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DEN -6.5↗SpreadBet DEN -6.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

0.0 since open

Total

232.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DEN beat HOU 129-93. N. Jokic stuffed the line with 16 PTS, 12 REB, and 13 AST. DEN outscored the other side 40-22 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DEN vs HOU

Starters vs bench

production by unit

HOUstarters 60% of pts

Starters(5)

56 PTS · 26 REB · 16 AST

GS 44

Bench(6)

37 PTS · 18 REB · 9 AST

GS 21

DENstarters 64% of pts

Starters(5)

82 PTS · 24 REB · 25 AST

GS 86

Bench(9)

47 PTS · 18 REB · 11 AST

GS 39

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DEN2nd Quarter · 2.2 · 47-53

+6pp→ 74% WP

Christian Braun · makes 31-foot three point step back jumpshot (Aaron Gordon assists)

DEN3rd Quarter · 8:26 · 55-62

+6pp→ 78% WP

Nikola Jokic · makes 4-foot floating jump shot (Cameron Johnson assists)

HOU3rd Quarter · 8:37 · 55-60

+9pp→ 26% WP

Nikola Jokic · blocks Amen Thompson 's 1-foot running layup

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
HOU	20	27	22	24	93
DEN	24	29	40	36	129

Period scoring

HOU won 0 · DEN won 4

Jr. 9

Murray 9

Thompson 8

Braun 9

Thompson 8

Jokic 10

Okogie 8

Murray 8

HOU

DEN

Shooting comparison

HOU

DEN

43%

42-97

55%

48-87

12%

4-33

3PT

53%

17-32

36%

5-14

73%

16-22

Play-by-play · 459 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
HOU 93·DEN 129
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
HOU 93·DEN 129
Q4·0.1
Rockets offensive team rebound
HOU 93·DEN 129
Q4·0.1
Jeff Green misses heave jump shot
HOU 93·DEN 129
Q4·3.4
shot clock turnover
HOU 93·DEN 129
Q4·28.0
Josh Okogie makes 26-foot three point jumper (Aaron Holiday assists)
·
HOU 93·DEN 129
Q4·39.1
David Roddy makes free throw 2 of 2
HOU 90·DEN 129
Q4·39.1
David Roddy makes free throw 1 of 2
HOU 90·DEN 128
Q4·39.1
Clint Capela shooting foul
HOU 90·DEN 127
Q4·46.3
David Roddy defensive rebound
HOU 90·DEN 127
Q4·48.3
Josh Okogie misses 2-foot tip shot
HOU 90·DEN 127
Q4·48.7
Josh Okogie offensive rebound
HOU 90·DEN 127
Q4·50.3
Isaiah Crawford misses free throw 2 of 2
HOU 90·DEN 127
Q4·50.3
Isaiah Crawford makes free throw 1 of 2
HOU 90·DEN 127
Q4·50.3
David Roddy loose ball foul
HOU 89·DEN 127
Q4·50.3
Rockets offensive team rebound
HOU 89·DEN 127
Q4·51.1
Josh Okogie misses 23-foot three point jumper
HOU 89·DEN 127
Q4·1:03
Julian Strawther makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)
· ·
HOU 89·DEN 127
Q4·1:13
Aaron Holiday makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot
HOU 89·DEN 124
Q4·1:28
Zeke Nnaji makes free throw 2 of 2
HOU 87·DEN 124
Q4·1:28
Nuggets offensive team rebound
HOU 87·DEN 123
Q4·1:28
Zeke Nnaji misses free throw 1 of 2
HOU 87·DEN 123
Q4·1:28
Aaron Holiday shooting foul
HOU 87·DEN 123
Q4·1:32
Clint Capela lost ball turnover (Zeke Nnaji steals)
·
HOU 87·DEN 123
Q4·1:33
Clint Capela offensive rebound
HOU 87·DEN 123
Q4·1:34
Clint Capela misses tip shot
HOU 87·DEN 123
Q4·1:34
Clint Capela offensive rebound
HOU 87·DEN 123
Q4·1:36
Isaiah Crawford misses two point shot
HOU 87·DEN 123
Q4·1:41
Isaiah Crawford defensive rebound
HOU 87·DEN 123
Q4·1:43
Julian Strawther misses 5-foot two point shot
HOU 87·DEN 123

Betting line

DEN -6.5·O/U 232.5·HOU +215/DEN -265

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

enver Nuggets held off Houston Rockets, 129–93. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

DEN -6.5 cashed (won by 36). Total stayed UNDER 232.5 by 10.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Nikola JokicDEN · C
TOUCHES12399+
Tari EasonHOU · F
DEFL4.599+
Amen ThompsonHOU · G
TOUCHES86.298
Jamal MurrayDEN · G
TOUCHES82.297
Alperen SengunHOU · C
CONT8.296

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DEN vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 145 high confidence

Points

Nikola JokicDEN
26.6± 7.0high
Kevin DurantHOU
25.3± 4.5high
Jamal MurrayDEN
24.2± 8.1high

Rebounds

Nikola JokicDEN
12.5± 3.1high
Alperen SengunHOU
9.4± 3.5high
Steven AdamsHOU
8.6± 2.2high

Assists

Nikola JokicDEN
9.7± 4.5high
Jamal MurrayDEN
6.4± 1.9high
Kevin DurantHOU
5.8± 2.2high

Blocks

Alperen SengunHOU
1.1± 0.7high
Nikola JokicDEN
1.0± 1.0high
Kevin DurantHOU
1.0± 1.1high

Steals

Amen ThompsonHOU
1.9± 1.3high
Tari EasonHOU
1.8± 1.8high
Reed SheppardHOU
1.6± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

HOU

league avg

DEN

53.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

57.2%

47.4%

FG%

47.0

▶

49.2%

114.1

PPG

114.9

▶

121.1

25.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

28.7

14.3

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR