NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+11NO

TOR

36-29

111122

22-45

NBAWed, Mar 11FinalSeriesNO leads series 1-0VegasTOR -2.5

TOR · top performer

Immanuel Quickley

G · #5

22.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NO · top performer

Trey Murphy III

F · #25

25.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowTOR ↔ NO

Biggest swing: 11pp · 3rd Quarter · 10:54

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. IngramF · #3	38	22	8-19	2-7	4-4	-25	6	5
R. BarrettF · #9	28	16	5-13	1-6	5-8	-9	7	1
S. BarnesF · #4	36	9	4-14	1-6	—	-3	6	4
J. PoeltlC · #19	30	8	4-7	—	—	-8	5	0
I. QuickleyG · #5	34	25	8-14	3-7	6-6	-27	6	3
Bench
S. MamukelashviliF · #54	21	8	2-6	2-6	2-2	-12	5	1
T. Jackson-DavisF · #32	3	0	0-3	—	0-2	+2	4	2
J. BattleF · #77	10	3	1-1	1-1	—	+12	1	0
J. SheadG · #23	20	9	3-7	2-4	1-1	+7	1	3
J. WalterG · #14	11	0	0-3	0-3	—	-6	1	1
A. MartinG · #55	1	4	1-1	1-1	1-2	+6	0	0
G. DickG · #1	8	7	3-6	1-3	—	+8	1	0
Team		111	39-94	14-44	19-25		43	20
DNP: J. Mogbo, G. Temple

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
H. JonesF · #2	36	16	6-9	4-6	—	+21	2	1
Z. WilliamsonF · #1	32	19	7-12	—	5-8	+20	6	4
T. Murphy IIIF · #25	34	28	8-12	5-8	7-8	+18	7	3
D. MurrayG · #5	31	27	12-20	2-6	1-2	+23	5	6
S. BeyG · #41	28	9	4-15	1-6	—	+5	4	4
Bench
K. MatkovicF · #17	13	4	1-1	—	2-2	-8	3	0
D. JordanC · #6	13	3	1-3	—	1-2	+1	4	2
D. QueenC · #22	14	3	1-3	1-1	—	-9	5	3
Y. MissiC · #21	19	6	3-6	—	—	+8	10	2
M. PeavyG · #14	1	0	—	—	—	-6	0	0
J. HawkinsG · #24	1	0	—	—	—	-6	1	0
J. FearsG · #0	17	7	2-7	1-2	2-2	-12	2	2
Team		122	45-88	14-29	18-24		49	27
DNP: K. Looney, J. Poole

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

Home

39-94

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

45-88

FG %

14-44

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-29

19-25

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

18-24

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

NO leads series 1-0

Mar 12

TOR111@

NO122today

Mar 28

NO106@

TOR119

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

235.5

High-scoring · +9.5 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR-14259%

NO+12045%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -2.5↗SpreadBet TOR -2.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

235.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NO beat TOR 122-111. T. Murphy III paced them with 28 PTS, 7 REB, 3 AST. NO outscored the other side 33-25 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

NO vs TOR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

TORstarters 72% of pts

Starters(5)

80 PTS · 30 REB · 13 AST

GS 65

Bench(7)

31 PTS · 13 REB · 7 AST

GS 25

NOstarters 81% of pts

Starters(5)

99 PTS · 24 REB · 18 AST

GS 78

Bench(7)

23 PTS · 25 REB · 9 AST

GS 27

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

TOR3rd Quarter · 10:54 · 61-64

+11pp→ 41% WP

Saddiq Bey · bad pass turnover (RJ Barrett steals)

TOR4th Quarter · 10:15 · 93-95

+9pp→ 37% WP

Jamison Battle · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)

NO4th Quarter · 9:38 · 93-95

+9pp→ 72% WP

Sandro Mamukelashvili · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
TOR	30	28	25	28	111
NO	29	31	33	29	122

Period scoring

TOR won 1 · NO won 3

Quickley 11

III 14

Ingram 9

Bey 7

Ingram 7

Murray 9

Quickley 9

Williamson 7

TOR

Shooting comparison

TOR

41%

39-94

51%

45-88

32%

14-44

3PT

48%

14-29

76%

19-25

75%

18-24

Play-by-play · 488 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
TOR 111·NO 122
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
TOR 108·NO 122
Q4·6.6
Jordan Hawkins defensive rebound
·
TOR 108·NO 122
Q4·7.0
Derik Queen blocks Trayce Jackson-Davis 's 2-foot layup
·
TOR 108·NO 122
Q4·8.2
Jamal Shead offensive rebound
TOR 108·NO 122
Q4·9.4
Derik Queen blocks Trayce Jackson-Davis 's 3-foot hook shot
·
TOR 108·NO 122
Q4·13.4
Derik Queen lost ball turnover (Alijah Martin steals)
·
TOR 108·NO 122
Q4·27.5
Gradey Dick makes 25-foot three point jumper (Trayce Jackson-Davis assists)
·
TOR 111·NO 122
Q4·27.5
Trayce Jackson-Davis offensive rebound
TOR 108·NO 122
Q4·27.5
Alijah Martin misses free throw 2 of 2
TOR 108·NO 122
Q4·27.5
Alijah Martin makes free throw 1 of 2
TOR 108·NO 122
Q4·27.5
Derik Queen shooting foul
TOR 107·NO 122
Q4·30.9
Derik Queen bad pass turnover (Gradey Dick steals)
·
TOR 107·NO 122
Q4·36.1
Derik Queen defensive rebound
TOR 107·NO 122
Q4·38.7
Trayce Jackson-Davis misses running layup
TOR 107·NO 122
Q4·44.2
Jamison Battle defensive rebound
TOR 107·NO 122
Q4·47.2
Jeremiah Fears misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
TOR 107·NO 122
Q4·56.4
Alijah Martin makes 25-foot three point jumper (Trayce Jackson-Davis assists)
·
TOR 107·NO 122
Q4·1:05
Derik Queen makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jeremiah Fears assists)
·
TOR 104·NO 122
Q4·1:15
Jamal Shead makes driving layup
TOR 104·NO 119
Q4·1:24
Jamal Shead makes technical free throw
TOR 102·NO 119
Q4·1:24
Alijah Martin enters the game for Ja'Kobe Walter
·
TOR 101·NO 119
Q4·1:24
Trayce Jackson-Davis enters the game for Immanuel Quickley
·
TOR 101·NO 119
Q4·1:24
Gradey Dick enters the game for Scottie Barnes
·
TOR 101·NO 119
Q4·1:24
Jamison Battle enters the game for Brandon Ingram
·
TOR 101·NO 119
Q4·1:24
Derik Queen enters the game for Trey Murphy III
·
TOR 101·NO 119
Q4·1:24
Karlo Matkovic enters the game for Yves Missi
·
TOR 101·NO 119
Q4·1:24
Jordan Hawkins enters the game for Dejounte Murray
· ·
TOR 101·NO 119
Q4·1:24
Micah Peavy enters the game for Herbert Jones
·
TOR 101·NO 119
Q4·1:24
Jeremiah Fears enters the game for Zion Williamson
·
TOR 101·NO 119

Betting line

TOR -2.5·O/U 235.5·TOR -142/NO +120

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ew Orleans Pelicans held off Toronto Raptors, 122–111.

NO +2.5 cashed (TOR lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 235.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Scottie BarnesTOR · F
DRIVES16.799
Jakob PoeltlTOR · C
TS%69.899
RJ BarrettTOR · F
DRIVES16.498
Karlo MatkovicNO · F
TS%69.698
Herbert JonesNO · F
DEFL3.596

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

TOR

league avg

54.5%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.7%

48.1%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.6%

114.3

PPG

114.9

▶

115.5

29.2

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.1

13.0

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.5

Data via ESPN · hoopR