NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3UTAH

32-32

116119

UTAH

20-45

NBAMon, Mar 9FinalSeriesGS wins series 3-1VegasGS -6.5

GS · top performer

De'Anthony Melton

G · #8

18.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

UTAH · top performer

Kyle Filipowski

F · #22

20.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowGS ↔ UTAH

Biggest swing: 24pp · 4th Quarter · 29.9

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. GreenF · #23	32	6	2-7	1-5	1-2	-3	2	11
G. SantosF · #15	33	15	6-13	1-7	2-4	-6	8	5
Q. PostC · #21	25	10	5-13	0-6	—	0	4	2
D. MeltonG · #8	20	22	7-16	3-6	5-5	-3	7	2
B. PodziemskiG · #2	35	14	5-10	4-6	0-4	-6	8	4
Bench
M. LeonsF · #33	13	0	0-2	0-1	—	-7	2	1
Se. CurryG · #31	12	13	4-6	2-3	3-3	+3	1	3
G. Payton IIG · #0	25	13	5-11	1-5	2-2	+1	1	0
N. WilliamsG · #19	13	12	5-8	1-3	1-1	-1	4	1
L. CryerG · #18	17	11	4-9	3-8	—	+8	5	2
P. SpencerG · #61	13	0	0-4	0-2	—	-1	4	2
Team		116	43-99	16-52	14-21		46	33
DNP: M. Moody, W. Richard

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. FilipowskiF · #22	25	19	6-12	1-3	6-6	+1	15	5
C. WilliamsF · #5	43	12	5-12	0-4	2-2	+1	3	7
B. SensabaughF · #28	29	21	7-13	2-5	5-6	+4	2	3
J. KoncharG · #55	33	2	1-2	0-1	—	-3	10	3
K. GeorgeG · #3	24	15	6-15	1-5	2-2	+4	0	2
Bench
K. LoveF · #42	15	12	3-4	3-3	3-3	+6	8	1
B. HinsonF · #2	28	12	4-9	4-9	—	-7	2	1
O. TshiebweC · #34	20	10	4-6	—	2-2	+10	8	1
E. HarklessG · #16	24	16	4-10	1-4	7-8	-1	2	6
Team		119	40-83	12-34	27-29		50	29
DNP: M. Bamba, W. Kessler, S. Mykhailiuk

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

UTAH

Home

43-99

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

40-83

FG %

16-52

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-34

14-21

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

27-29

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

GS wins series 3-1

Nov 25

UTAH117@

GS134

Jan 4

UTAH114@

GS123

Jan 29

GS140@

UTAH124

Mar 10

GS116@

UTAH119today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

GS -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

Total

224.5

Standard · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

GS-26573%

UTAH+21532%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet GS -6.5↗SpreadBet GS -6.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

0.0 since open

Total

224.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

UTAH beat GS 119-116. K. Filipowski led with 19 PTS, 15 REB, 5 AST. Blake Hinson's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (24pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

UTAH vs GS

Starters vs bench

production by unit

GSstarters 58% of pts

Starters(5)

67 PTS · 29 REB · 24 AST

GS 59

Bench(6)

49 PTS · 17 REB · 9 AST

GS 42

UTAHstarters 58% of pts

Starters(5)

69 PTS · 30 REB · 20 AST

GS 57

Bench(4)

50 PTS · 20 REB · 9 AST

GS 47

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

GS4th Quarter · 4:48 · 103-106

+17pp→ 44% WP

Gui Santos · makes free throw 1 of 2

GS4th Quarter · 3:18 · 107-108

+17pp→ 58% WP

Cody Williams · shooting foul

UTAH4th Quarter · 29.9 · 113-116

+24pp→ 76% WP

Blake Hinson · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cody Williams assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
GS	27	28	29	32	116
UTAH	29	30	32	28	119

Period scoring

GS won 1 · UTAH won 3

Curry 6

George 8

Podziemski 11

Filipowski 11

Williams 8

Sensabaugh 10

Melton 15

Hinson 9

UTAH

Shooting comparison

UTAH

43%

43-99

48%

40-83

31%

16-52

3PT

35%

12-34

67%

14-21

93%

27-29

Play-by-play · 497 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
GS 116·UTAH 119
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
GS 116·UTAH 119
Q4·0.2
Warriors offensive team rebound
GS 116·UTAH 119
Q4·0.2
Gui Santos misses 24-foot three point jumper
GS 116·UTAH 119
+3pp
Q4·1.7
LJ Cryer enters the game for Quinten Post
·
GS 116·UTAH 119
Q4·1.7
De'Anthony Melton enters the game for Brandin Podziemski
·
GS 116·UTAH 119
Q4·1.7
Seth Curry enters the game for Gary Payton II
·
GS 116·UTAH 119
Q4·1.7
Warriors Full timeout
GS 116·UTAH 119
Q4·1.7
Elijah Harkless makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 116·UTAH 119
−1pp
Q4·1.7
Quinten Post enters the game for De'Anthony Melton
·
GS 116·UTAH 118
Q4·1.7
Elijah Harkless makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 116·UTAH 118
Q4·1.7
De'Anthony Melton personal foul
GS 116·UTAH 117
+5pp
Q4·2.3
Gary Payton II enters the game for LJ Cryer
·
GS 116·UTAH 117
Q4·2.3
Jazz Full timeout
GS 116·UTAH 117
+2pp
Q4·3.1
De'Anthony Melton makes 27-foot three point jumper (LJ Cryer assists)
·
GS 116·UTAH 117
−5pp
Q4·4.6
LJ Cryer offensive rebound
GS 113·UTAH 117
Q4·8.2
Brandin Podziemski misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
GS 113·UTAH 117
+8pp
Q4·17.9
Draymond Green defensive rebound
GS 113·UTAH 117
Q4·18.3
Elijah Harkless misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
GS 113·UTAH 117
−9pp
Q4·18.3
Elijah Harkless makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 113·UTAH 117
+0.9pp
Q4·18.3
Draymond Green personal foulBIG MOMENT
GS 113·UTAH 116
+7pp
Q4·22.1
Kyle Filipowski defensive rebound
GS 113·UTAH 116
+3pp
Q4·22.9
De'Anthony Melton misses tip shotBIG MOMENT
GS 113·UTAH 116
+8pp
Q4·22.9
De'Anthony Melton offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
GS 113·UTAH 116
−7pp
Q4·25.6
De'Anthony Melton misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
GS 113·UTAH 116
+9pp
Q4·29.2
LJ Cryer enters the game for Gary Payton II
·
GS 113·UTAH 116
Q4·29.2
Warriors Full timeout
GS 113·UTAH 116
Q4·29.9
Blake Hinson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cody Williams assists)BIG MOMENT
· ·
GS 113·UTAH 116
+24pp
Q4·42.1
John Konchar defensive rebound
GS 113·UTAH 113
+2pp
Q4·42.1
De'Anthony Melton misses tip shotBIG MOMENT
GS 113·UTAH 113
+7pp

Betting line

GS -6.5·O/U 224.5·GS -265/UTAH +215

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

tah Jazz held off Golden State Warriors, 119–116. Decided by 3.

UTAH +6.5 cashed (GS lost outright). Total cleared the 224.5 OVER by 10.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Blake HinsonUTAH · F
TS%68.497
Keyonte GeorgeUTAH · G
TOUCHES78.797
Draymond GreenGS · F
CONT7.593
De'Anthony MeltonGS · G
DEFL2.992
John KoncharUTAH · G
DEFL2.891

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · GS favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

UTAH vs GS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Stephen CurryGS
25.2± 8.3high
Lauri MarkkanenUTAH
24.2± 5.0high
Keyonte GeorgeUTAH
21.4± 8.8high

Rebounds

Jusuf NurkicUTAH
11.4± 4.1high
Walker KesslerUTAH
10.7± 2.2low
Kyle FilipowskiUTAH
8.1± 2.6high

Assists

Draymond GreenGS
6.6± 3.0high
Isaiah CollierUTAH
6.6± 2.5high
Kennedy ChandlerUTAH
6.5± 2.2medium

Blocks

Walker KesslerUTAH
1.8± 2.5low
Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH
1.3± 1.3high
Al HorfordGS
1.1± 1.3high

Steals

Bez MbengUTAH
2.5± 1.7medium
John KoncharUTAH
1.9± 1.7high
De'Anthony MeltonGS
1.5± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

UTAH

55.1%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.6%

46.2%

FG%

47.0

▶

46.7%

114.5

PPG

114.9

▶

117.6

28.8

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.6

15.1

Turnovers / G

14.0

15.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR