NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3OKC

DEN

39-26

126129

OKC

51-15

NBAMon, Mar 9FinalSeriesOKC leads series 3-0VegasOKC -3.5

DEN · top performer

Nikola Jokic

C · #15

34.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

OKC · top performer

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

G · #2

40.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDEN ↔ OKC

Biggest swing: 41pp · 4th Quarter · 8.5

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. GordonF · #32	28	23	6-14	2-4	9-10	+14	10	3
C. JohnsonF · #23	23	6	1-5	1-3	3-4	+9	3	1
N. JokicC · #15	40	32	12-19	3-6	5-6	+2	14	13
J. MurrayG · #27	37	21	9-23	0-4	3-3	+5	8	6
C. BraunG · #0	38	4	2-6	0-3	0-2	-2	9	2
Bench
S. JonesF · #21	16	6	3-7	0-3	—	-7	5	0
J. ValanciunasC · #17	6	2	1-2	—	—	-8	2	1
T. Hardaway Jr.G · #10	33	28	10-16	8-12	0-2	-10	2	2
B. BrownG · #11	16	4	1-5	1-2	1-2	-15	3	1
J. StrawtherG · #3	3	0	0-1	—	—	-3	0	0
Team		126	45-98	15-37	21-29		56	29
DNP: Z. Nnaji, D. Roddy, T. Jones, J. Pickett

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
Jay. WilliamsF · #6	40	29	10-17	7-11	2-4	+4	12	3
S. Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #2	39	35	14-21	3-7	4-4	+2	9	15
I. JoeG · #11	32	13	5-10	3-8	—	-3	4	2
L. DortG · #5	30	6	2-11	2-8	0-2	-15	4	0
C. WallaceG · #22	17	4	2-6	0-1	—	-27	2	1
Bench
K. WilliamsG · #34	13	2	0-2	0-1	2-2	+8	1	2
A. WigginsG · #21	18	3	1-3	0-2	1-2	+16	2	0
J. McCainG · #3	22	13	4-7	3-5	2-2	+19	1	1
A. MitchellG · #25	29	24	9-16	1-4	5-5	+11	2	3
Team		129	47-93	19-47	16-21		37	27
DNP: B. Barnhizer, P. Sandfort, N. Topic

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DEN

Away

Stat

OKC

Home

45-98

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

47-93

FG %

15-37

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

19-47

21-29

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

16-21

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

OKC leads series 3-0

Feb 2

OKC121@

DEN111

Feb 28

DEN121@

OKC127

Mar 9

DEN126@

OKC129today

Apr 11

OKC107@

DEN127

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OKC -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

237.5

High-scoring · +11.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DEN+13043%

OKC-15561%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OKC -3.5↗SpreadBet OKC -3.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

237.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OKC beat DEN 129-126. S. Gilgeous-Alexander led the way with 35 points and 15 assists. OKC outscored the other side 29-20 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

OKC vs DEN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DENstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

86 PTS · 44 REB · 25 AST

GS 80

Bench(5)

40 PTS · 12 REB · 4 AST

GS 26

OKCstarters 67% of pts

Starters(5)

87 PTS · 31 REB · 21 AST

GS 77

Bench(4)

42 PTS · 6 REB · 6 AST

GS 33

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

OKC4th Quarter · 13.9 · 122-126

+21pp→ 90% WP

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · makes 25-foot three pointer

DEN4th Quarter · 8.5 · 125-126

+41pp→ 65% WP

Jaylin Williams · personal foul

OKC4th Quarter · 3.3 · 126-129

+40pp→ 95% WP

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Ajay Mitchell assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DEN	40	20	33	33	126
OKC	37	29	30	33	129

Period scoring

DEN won 2 · OKC won 1

Gordon 19

Gilgeous-Alexander 11

Jr. 8

Joe 8

Jokic 12

Williams 8

Jokic 11

Gilgeous-Alexander 10

DEN

OKC

Shooting comparison

DEN

OKC

46%

45-98

51%

47-93

41%

15-37

3PT

40%

19-47

72%

21-29

76%

16-21

Play-by-play · 495 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DEN 126·OKC 129
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DEN 126·OKC 129
Q4·0.1
Nuggets offensive team rebound
DEN 126·OKC 129
Q4·0.3
Aaron Gordon misses heave jump shotBIG MOMENT
DEN 126·OKC 129
+5pp
Q4·3.3
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Ajay Mitchell assists)BIG MOMENT
·
DEN 126·OKC 129
+40pp
Q4·8.5
Spencer Jones enters the game for Jamal Murray
· ·
DEN 126·OKC 126
Q4·8.5
Bruce Brown enters the game for Nikola Jokic
·
DEN 126·OKC 126
Q4·8.5
Isaiah Joe enters the game for Kenrich Williams
· ·
DEN 126·OKC 126
Q4·8.5
Jared McCain enters the game for Luguentz Dort
·
DEN 126·OKC 126
Q4·8.5
Thunder Full timeout
DEN 126·OKC 126
Q4·8.5
Jamal Murray makes free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
DEN 126·OKC 126
−14pp
Q4·8.5
Christian Braun enters the game for Cameron Johnson
·
DEN 125·OKC 126
Q4·8.5
Kenrich Williams enters the game for Isaiah Joe
· ·
DEN 125·OKC 126
Q4·8.5
(00:08.5) [Nuggets] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)BIG MOMENT
DEN 125·OKC 126
+34pp
Q4·8.5
Jaylin Williams personal foulBIG MOMENT
·
DEN 125·OKC 126
−41pp
Q4·8.5
Nikola Jokic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Aaron Gordon assists)BIG MOMENT
·
DEN 125·OKC 126
−14pp
Q4·13.6
Cameron Johnson enters the game for Christian Braun
·
DEN 122·OKC 126
Q4·13.6
Nuggets Full timeout
DEN 122·OKC 126
Q4·13.9
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 25-foot three pointerBIG MOMENT
DEN 122·OKC 126
+21pp
Q4·31.2
Nikola Jokic makes 2-foot driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
DEN 122·OKC 123
−8pp
Q4·44.0
Jamal Murray defensive rebound
DEN 120·OKC 123
−2pp
Q4·47.1
Isaiah Joe misses 27-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
DEN 120·OKC 123
−5pp
Q4·1:05
Nikola Jokic makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tim Hardaway Jr. assists)BIG MOMENT
·
DEN 120·OKC 123
−9pp
Q4·1:12
Isaiah Joe enters the game for Jared McCain
·
DEN 117·OKC 123
Q4·1:12
Nuggets offensive team rebound
DEN 117·OKC 123
Q4·1:12
Nikola Jokic misses free throw flagrant 2 of 2
DEN 117·OKC 123
+3pp
Q4·1:12
Nikola Jokic makes free throw flagrant 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
DEN 117·OKC 123
−8pp
Q4·1:12
(01:12) [Nuggets] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)
DEN 116·OKC 123
+0.5pp
Q4·1:12
Luguentz Dort flagrant foul type 1
DEN 116·OKC 123
+0.9pp
Q4·1:22
Ajay Mitchell makes driving layup (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)
·
DEN 116·OKC 123
+3pp

Betting line

OKC -3.5·O/U 237.5·DEN +130/OKC -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

klahoma City Thunder held off Denver Nuggets, 129–126. Decided by 3.

DEN +3.5 cashed (OKC won by 3). Total cleared the 237.5 OVER by 17.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Nikola JokicDEN · C
TOUCHES12399+
Cason WallaceOKC · G
DEFL599+
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC · G
DRIVES18.399
Jamal MurrayDEN · G
TOUCHES82.297
Isaiah JoeOKC · G
TS%65.793

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · DEN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

OKC vs DEN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

140

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
27.7± 6.8high
Nikola JokicDEN
26.6± 7.0high
Jamal MurrayDEN
24.2± 8.1high

Rebounds

Nikola JokicDEN
12.5± 3.1high
Isaiah HartensteinOKC
8.6± 3.9high
Chet HolmgrenOKC
8.0± 3.0high

Assists

Nikola JokicDEN
9.7± 4.5high
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
7.6± 3.1high
Jamal MurrayDEN
6.4± 1.9high

Blocks

Chet HolmgrenOKC
1.4± 0.9high
Nikola JokicDEN
1.0± 1.0high
Branden CarlsonOKC
0.9± 1.6high

Steals

Cason WallaceOKC
2.0± 1.0high
Alex CarusoOKC
1.5± 1.1high
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
1.5± 1.5high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DEN

league avg

OKC

57.2%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

55.9%

49.2%

FG%

◀

47.0

48.2%

121.1

PPG

◀

114.9

118.5

28.7

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.8

12.1

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

11.9

Data via ESPN · hoopR