NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+40SA

44-17

13191

PHI

33-28

NBATue, Mar 3FinalSeriesSA leads series 1-0VegasSA -7.5

SA · top performer

Devin Vassell

G · #24

20.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

PHI · top performer

Jabari Walker

F · #33

17.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowSA ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 9pp · 1st Quarter · 4:01

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ChampagnieF · #30	22	10	4-9	2-5	—	+39	7	2
V. WembanyamaF · #1	24	10	3-5	1-1	3-5	+41	8	4
D. FoxG · #4	21	11	4-8	1-4	2-2	+23	5	7
D. VassellG · #24	23	22	7-10	6-8	2-2	+43	5	1
S. CastleG · #5	21	15	6-10	0-2	3-4	+39	4	10
Bench
K. OlynykF · #8	12	0	0-2	0-2	—	-9	3	2
L. Waters IIIF · #43	12	8	3-8	2-7	—	+6	0	1
K. JohnsonF · #3	22	12	6-11	0-3	—	+3	9	0
C. BryantF · #11	26	11	4-7	3-6	—	+22	9	3
B. BiyomboC · #18	12	5	2-2	—	1-1	-9	1	1
L. KornetC · #7	12	2	1-1	—	—	+8	2	2
J. McLaughlinG · #0	12	3	1-5	1-3	—	-9	1	1
D. HarperG · #2	22	22	8-11	2-4	4-4	+3	2	2
Team		131	49-89	18-45	15-18		56	36

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. BarlowF · #25	13	0	0-4	0-1	—	-38	0	0
A. DrummondC · #1	5	2	1-7	0-4	—	-14	3	0
Q. GrimesG · #5	22	2	1-5	0-2	—	-34	2	1
T. MaxeyG · #0	25	21	8-19	2-6	3-4	-36	8	2
V. EdgecombeG · #77	20	6	2-9	0-2	2-3	-25	4	1
Bench
T. WatfordF · #12	26	9	3-9	0-4	3-4	-1	2	3
J. WalkerF · #33	19	20	7-10	2-5	4-4	-1	7	0
D. TerryF · #14	16	4	1-7	1-3	1-2	+1	3	2
J. EdwardsF · #11	26	9	3-7	3-5	—	-18	1	3
A. BonaC · #30	22	6	2-3	—	2-2	-18	6	2
C. PaynePG · #20	26	10	4-11	2-8	—	-15	2	2
T. MartinG · #13	19	2	1-4	0-2	—	-1	2	4
Team		91	33-95	10-42	15-19		40	20
DNP: K. Lowry

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

49-89

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

33-95

FG %

18-45

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-42

15-18

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-19

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

SA leads series 1-0

Mar 4

SA131@

PHI91today

Apr 7

PHI102@

SA115

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

Total

231.5

Standard · +5.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SA-30575%

PHI+24529%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -7.5↗SpreadBet SA -7.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

0.0 since open

Total

231.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SA beat PHI 131-91. D. Vassell led with 22 PTS, 5 REB, 1 AST. SA outscored the other side 35-11 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

PHI vs SA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SAstarters 52% of pts

Starters(5)

68 PTS · 29 REB · 24 AST

GS 76

Bench(8)

63 PTS · 27 REB · 12 AST

GS 50

PHIstarters 34% of pts

Starters(5)

31 PTS · 17 REB · 4 AST

GS 13

Bench(7)

60 PTS · 23 REB · 16 AST

GS 45

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PHI1st Quarter · 4:01 · 18-13

+9pp→ 25% WP

Tyrese Maxey · blocks De'Aaron Fox 's 12-foot driving floating jump shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SA	32	46	35	18	131
PHI	25	28	11	27	91

Period scoring

SA won 3 · PHI won 1

Harper 11

Maxey 12

Vassell 13

Payne 7

Vassell 9

Grimes 10

III 8

Walker 17

PHI

Shooting comparison

PHI

55%

49-89

35%

33-95

40%

18-45

3PT

24%

10-42

83%

15-18

79%

15-19

Play-by-play · 468 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SA 131·PHI 91
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SA 131·PHI 91
Q4·0.4
shot clock turnover
SA 131·PHI 91
Q4·25.0
Justin Edwards makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Martin assists)
·
SA 131·PHI 91
Q4·26.7
Tyrese Martin offensive rebound
SA 131·PHI 88
Q4·29.9
Trendon Watford misses 28-foot three point jumper
SA 131·PHI 88
Q4·49.8
Bismack Biyombo makes 5-foot hook shot (Kelly Olynyk assists)
·
SA 131·PHI 88
Q4·1:03
Jabari Walker out of bounds lost ball turnover
SA 129·PHI 88
Q4·1:13
Jordan McLaughlin makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bismack Biyombo assists)
·
SA 129·PHI 88
Q4·1:28
Jabari Walker makes free throw 1 of 1
SA 126·PHI 88
Q4·1:28
Bismack Biyombo shooting foul
SA 126·PHI 87
Q4·1:28
Jabari Walker makes driving layup
SA 126·PHI 87
Q4·1:35
Justin Edwards defensive rebound
SA 126·PHI 85
Q4·1:40
Jordan McLaughlin misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
SA 126·PHI 85
Q4·1:56
Carter Bryant defensive rebound
SA 126·PHI 85
Q4·2:01
Dalen Terry misses 23-foot three point jumper
SA 126·PHI 85
Q4·2:17
Jabari Walker defensive rebound
SA 126·PHI 85
Q4·2:20
Lindy Waters III misses 26-foot three point jumper
SA 126·PHI 85
Q4·2:31
Jabari Walker makes free throw 1 of 1
SA 126·PHI 85
Q4·2:31
Bismack Biyombo shooting foul
SA 126·PHI 84
Q4·2:31
Jabari Walker makes 2-foot layup (Tyrese Martin assists)
·
SA 126·PHI 84
Q4·2:41
shot clock turnover
SA 126·PHI 82
Q4·2:41
Kelly Olynyk offensive rebound
SA 126·PHI 82
Q4·2:42
Jordan McLaughlin misses two point shot
SA 126·PHI 82
Q4·2:59
Spurs Full timeout
SA 126·PHI 82
Q4·3:03
Bismack Biyombo defensive rebound
SA 126·PHI 82
Q4·3:06
Dalen Terry misses 24-foot three point jumper
SA 126·PHI 82
Q4·3:18
Jabari Walker defensive rebound
SA 126·PHI 82
Q4·3:20
Kelly Olynyk misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
SA 126·PHI 82
Q4·3:27
shot clock turnover
SA 126·PHI 82

Betting line

SA -7.5·O/U 231.5·SA -305/PHI +245

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

an Antonio Spurs went into Philadelphia 76ers and beat them, 131–91. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

SA -7.5 cashed (won by 40). Total stayed UNDER 231.5 by 9.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Victor WembanyamaSA · F
CONT11.999+
Tyrese MaxeyPHI · G
TOUCHES94.599
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.898
Stephon CastleSA · G
TOUCHES71.594
VJ EdgecombePHI · G
TOUCHES66.190

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · SA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHI vs SA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Joel EmbiidPHI
25.3± 7.2high
Tyrese MaxeyPHI
25.0± 6.5high
Paul GeorgePHI
16.6± 4.2high

Rebounds

Joel EmbiidPHI
8.0± 3.5high
VJ EdgecombePHI
6.1± 2.7high
Andre DrummondPHI
5.6± 3.0high

Assists

De'Aaron FoxSA
6.1± 1.3high
Stephon CastleSA
6.1± 1.7high
Tyrese MaxeyPHI
5.9± 1.9high

Blocks

Joel EmbiidPHI
1.3± 1.4high
Adem BonaPHI
1.1± 1.3high
Dominick BarlowPHI
0.6± 0.8high

Steals

Paul GeorgePHI
1.5± 1.1high
De'Aaron FoxSA
1.4± 1.0high
Tyrese MaxeyPHI
1.2± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

PHI

55.3%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.9%

47.7%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.0%

118.2

PPG

◀

114.9

114.3

27.3

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.1

12.8

Turnovers / G

14.0

12.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR