NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3SA

42-16

110107

TOR

34-25

NBAWed, Feb 25FinalSeriesSA wins series 2-0VegasSA -5.5

SA · top performer

Devin Vassell

G · #24

16.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

TOR · top performer

Jakob Poeltl

C · #19

15.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowSA ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 19pp · 4th Quarter · 18.4

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ChampagnieF · #30	28	10	3-8	3-7	1-1	+14	6	5
V. WembanyamaF · #1	30	12	3-12	1-6	5-6	+19	8	3
D. FoxG · #4	31	20	8-15	2-5	2-8	-11	2	1
D. VassellG · #24	32	21	8-13	5-6	—	+2	5	2
S. CastleG · #5	28	13	4-10	2-4	3-4	+11	3	5
Bench
H. BarnesF · #40	21	8	3-5	2-4	—	+1	3	2
K. JohnsonF · #3	14	2	1-6	0-1	—	-7	1	3
C. BryantF · #11	7	3	1-2	1-2	—	-6	1	0
L. KornetC · #7	21	6	2-4	—	2-2	-9	6	0
D. HarperG · #2	29	15	7-11	1-4	0-2	+1	5	7
Team		110	40-86	17-39	13-23		40	28
DNP: K. Olynyk, L. Waters III, B. Biyombo, J. McLaughlin

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. IngramF · #3	37	20	9-22	0-2	2-2	+1	11	4
R. BarrettF · #9	33	12	4-14	1-6	3-4	-5	7	3
S. BarnesF · #4	31	15	7-13	1-4	—	-3	4	2
C. Murray-BoylesF · #12	15	4	1-4	1-1	1-2	-18	5	1
I. QuickleyG · #5	37	20	6-12	3-5	5-7	+4	4	0
Bench
S. MamukelashviliF · #54	14	2	1-2	—	—	-13	3	0
T. Jackson-DavisF · #32	0	0	—	—	—	0	1	0
J. BattleF · #77	6	2	1-1	—	—	+1	0	0
J. PoeltlC · #19	28	15	5-11	—	5-5	+18	7	2
J. SheadG · #23	19	12	3-7	2-3	4-4	+6	1	3
J. WalterG · #14	19	5	1-4	0-2	3-3	-6	7	2
Team		107	38-90	8-23	23-27		50	17
DNP: G. Temple, G. Dick

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

40-86

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

38-90

FG %

17-39

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

8-23

13-23

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

23-27

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

SA wins series 2-0

Oct 28

TOR103@

SA121

Feb 26

SA110@

TOR107today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

230.5

Standard · +4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SA-21869%

TOR+18036%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -5.5↗SpreadBet SA -5.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

230.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SA beat TOR 110-107. D. Vassell led with 21 PTS, 5 REB, 2 AST. SA outscored the other side 32-17 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

TOR vs SA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SAstarters 69% of pts

Starters(5)

76 PTS · 24 REB · 16 AST

GS 56

Bench(5)

34 PTS · 16 REB · 12 AST

GS 34

TORstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

71 PTS · 31 REB · 10 AST

GS 42

Bench(6)

36 PTS · 19 REB · 7 AST

GS 36

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SA4th Quarter · 18.4 · 108-106

+19pp→ 92% WP

Jakob Poeltl · personal take foul

SA4th Quarter · 12.5 · 108-106

+14pp→ 84% WP

Dylan Harper · offensive rebound

TOR4th Quarter · 9.3 · 109-106

+18pp→ 35% WP

Dylan Harper · personal foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SA	30	27	21	32	110
TOR	29	30	31	17	107

Period scoring

SA won 2 · TOR won 2

Harper 9

Barnes 9

Harper 6

Ingram 8

Castle 5

Quickley 10

Fox 8

Poeltl 6

TOR

Shooting comparison

TOR

47%

40-86

42%

38-90

44%

17-39

3PT

35%

8-23

57%

13-23

85%

23-27

Play-by-play · 520 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SA 110·TOR 107
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SA 110·TOR 107
−2pp
Q4·3.1
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
SA 110·TOR 107
−3pp
Q4·5.4
Brandon Ingram misses 23-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
SA 110·TOR 107
−8pp
Q4·8.2
Stephon Castle enters the game for Luke Kornet
·
SA 110·TOR 107
Q4·8.2
Sandro Mamukelashvili enters the game for Trayce Jackson-Davis
·
SA 110·TOR 107
Q4·8.2
Immanuel Quickley enters the game for Jakob Poeltl
·
SA 110·TOR 107
Q4·8.4
Raptors Full timeout
SA 110·TOR 107
Q4·8.4
Trayce Jackson-Davis defensive rebound
SA 110·TOR 107
Q4·8.7
Victor Wembanyama misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
SA 110·TOR 107
+10pp
Q4·8.7
Luke Kornet enters the game for Julian Champagnie
·
SA 110·TOR 107
Q4·8.7
Trayce Jackson-Davis enters the game for Jamal Shead
·
SA 110·TOR 107
Q4·8.7
Jakob Poeltl enters the game for Ja'Kobe Walter
·
SA 110·TOR 107
Q4·8.7
Scottie Barnes enters the game for Immanuel Quickley
· ·
SA 110·TOR 107
Q4·8.7
Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 1 of 2
SA 110·TOR 107
−1pp
Q4·8.7
Immanuel Quickley personal take foulBIG MOMENT
SA 109·TOR 107
−9pp
Q4·9.3
Julian Champagnie enters the game for Luke Kornet
·
SA 109·TOR 107
Q4·9.3
De'Aaron Fox enters the game for Stephon Castle
·
SA 109·TOR 107
Q4·9.3
Jamal Shead enters the game for Jakob Poeltl
·
SA 109·TOR 107
Q4·9.3
Ja'Kobe Walter enters the game for Scottie Barnes
· ·
SA 109·TOR 107
Q4·9.3
Spurs Full timeout
SA 109·TOR 107
Q4·9.3
Immanuel Quickley makes free throw 2 of 2
SA 109·TOR 107
−0.5pp
Q4·9.3
Luke Kornet enters the game for De'Aaron Fox
·
SA 109·TOR 106
Q4·9.3
Raptors offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
SA 109·TOR 106
−9pp
Q4·9.3
Immanuel Quickley misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
SA 109·TOR 106
−11pp
Q4·9.3
Dylan Harper personal foulBIG MOMENT
SA 109·TOR 106
+18pp
Q4·10.7
Stephon Castle enters the game for Luke Kornet
·
SA 109·TOR 106
Q4·10.7
RJ Barrett enters the game for Trayce Jackson-Davis
·
SA 109·TOR 106
Q4·10.7
Raptors Full timeout
SA 109·TOR 106
Q4·10.7
De'Aaron Fox makes free throw 2 of 2
SA 109·TOR 106
+0.6pp

Betting line

SA -5.5·O/U 230.5·SA -218/TOR +180

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

an Antonio Spurs went into Toronto Raptors and beat them, 110–107. Decided by 3.

TOR +5.5 cashed (SA won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 230.5 by 13.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Victor WembanyamaSA · F
CONT11.999+
Scottie BarnesTOR · F
DRIVES16.799
RJ BarrettTOR · F
DRIVES16.498
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.898
Collin Murray-BoylesTOR · F
DEFL3.195

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · SA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

TOR

55.3%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

54.5%

47.7%

FG%

47.0

48.1%

118.2

PPG

◀

114.9

114.3

27.3

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.2

12.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR