NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4NO

30-28

109113

17-42

NBATue, Feb 24FinalSeriesGS wins series 2-1VegasGS -1.5

GS · top performer

Moses Moody

G · #4

18.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NO · top performer

Zion Williamson

F · #1

19.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowGS ↔ NO

Biggest swing: 44pp · 3rd Quarter · 1:35

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. GreenF · #23	32	11	5-11	1-3	—	+8	7	6
G. SantosF · #15	39	15	6-13	1-4	2-2	-7	12	4
D. MeltonG · #8	28	28	8-20	3-9	9-11	+9	4	3
M. MoodyG · #4	34	24	7-13	4-10	6-8	+13	5	3
P. SpencerG · #61	23	5	2-7	1-4	—	+1	2	4
Bench
Q. PostC · #21	23	6	3-7	0-4	—	-13	9	1
G. Payton IIG · #0	12	4	2-7	0-4	—	-11	3	2
B. PodziemskiG · #2	32	16	7-18	1-6	1-2	-1	15	3
W. RichardG · #3	17	0	0-1	0-1	—	-19	2	0
Team		109	40-97	11-45	18-23		59	26
DNP: M. Leons, A. Horford, K. Porzingis

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
H. JonesF · #2	31	5	1-8	1-7	2-2	+1	3	3
Z. WilliamsonF · #1	33	26	11-21	1-1	3-5	-7	6	0
D. JordanC · #9	22	6	2-3	—	2-3	+11	8	2
D. MurrayG · #5	25	13	5-11	1-4	2-2	0	2	3
S. BeyG · #41	31	18	6-13	1-6	5-5	-2	6	1
Bench
K. MatkovicF · #17	18	10	4-6	1-3	1-2	-5	8	1
D. QueenC · #22	18	8	4-13	0-3	0-1	+8	7	2
J. PooleG · #3	23	12	4-11	3-10	1-1	+3	6	3
B. McGowensG · #11	18	7	3-5	1-3	—	+6	4	0
J. FearsG · #0	21	8	3-10	1-3	1-2	+5	3	5
Team		113	43-101	10-40	17-23		53	20
DNP: K. Looney, J. Hawkins

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

Home

40-97

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

43-101

FG %

11-45

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-40

18-23

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-23

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

GS wins series 2-1

Nov 17

GS124@

NO106

Nov 30

NO96@

GS104

Feb 25

GS109@

NO113today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

GS -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

229.5

Standard · +3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

GS-12255%

NO+10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet GS -1.5↗SpreadBet GS -1.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

229.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NO beat GS 113-109. Z. Williamson paced them with 26 PTS, 6 REB, 0 AST. NO outscored the other side 31-19 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

NO vs GS

Starters vs bench

production by unit

GSstarters 76% of pts

Starters(5)

83 PTS · 30 REB · 20 AST

GS 62

Bench(4)

26 PTS · 29 REB · 6 AST

GS 22

NOstarters 60% of pts

Starters(5)

68 PTS · 25 REB · 9 AST

GS 51

Bench(5)

45 PTS · 28 REB · 11 AST

GS 38

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

NO3rd Quarter · 9:34 · 46-51

+31pp→ 65% WP

Zion Williamson · bad pass turnover (Pat Spencer steals)

GS3rd Quarter · 3:45 · 65-62

+38pp→ 65% WP

Derik Queen · misses 4-foot tip shot

GS3rd Quarter · 1:35 · 68-68

+44pp→ 53% WP

Derik Queen · misses 4-foot tip shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
GS	19	20	33	37	109
NO	31	15	31	36	113

Period scoring

GS won 3 · NO won 1

Melton 6

Fears 9

Santos 5

Williamson 5

Moody 10

Queen 14

Melton 12

Melton 49

Shooting comparison

41%

40-97

43%

43-101

24%

11-45

3PT

25%

10-40

78%

18-23

74%

17-23

Play-by-play · 541 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
GS 109·NO 113
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
GS 109·NO 113
+0.5pp
Q4·1.2
Moses Moody makes 25-foot three pointer
GS 109·NO 113
Q4·9.4
Dejounte Murray makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 106·NO 113
Q4·9.4
Dejounte Murray makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 106·NO 112
Q4·9.4
Brandin Podziemski personal foul
GS 106·NO 111
+2pp
Q4·13.0
Brandin Podziemski makes 2-foot floating jump shot
GS 106·NO 111
−1pp
Q4·13.7
Brandin Podziemski offensive rebound
GS 104·NO 111
Q4·16.9
Moses Moody misses 29-foot jump bank shot
GS 104·NO 111
+0.9pp
Q4·18.8
Warriors Full timeout
GS 104·NO 111
Q4·18.8
Herbert Jones makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 104·NO 111
−0.8pp
Q4·18.8
Herbert Jones makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 104·NO 110
Q4·18.8
Draymond Green personal foul
GS 104·NO 109
+3pp
Q4·26.2
Pelicans defensive team rebound
GS 104·NO 109
+2pp
Q4·28.8
De'Anthony Melton misses 24-foot three point jumper
GS 104·NO 109
+4pp
Q4·34.1
Brandin Podziemski defensive rebound
GS 104·NO 109
−0.7pp
Q4·38.5
Saddiq Bey misses 25-foot fade away jump shotBIG MOMENT
GS 104·NO 109
+9pp
Q4·56.3
Dejounte Murray defensive rebound
GS 104·NO 109
+1pp
Q4·57.7
De'Anthony Melton misses driving layup
GS 104·NO 109
+4pp
Q4·1:04
Dejounte Murray makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
GS 104·NO 109
+6pp
Q4·1:23
De'Anthony Melton makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 104·NO 107
+1pp
Q4·1:23
Warriors offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
GS 103·NO 107
+6pp
Q4·1:23
De'Anthony Melton misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
GS 103·NO 107
−8pp
Q4·1:23
Dejounte Murray personal foulBIG MOMENT
GS 103·NO 107
−13pp
Q4·1:23
Moses Moody defensive rebound
GS 103·NO 107
−2pp
Q4·1:24
Zion Williamson misses two point shot
GS 103·NO 107
−4pp
Q4·1:40
De'Anthony Melton makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
GS 103·NO 107
+15pp
Q4·1:40
De'Anthony Melton makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 102·NO 107
−1pp
Q4·1:40
Zion Williamson personal foulBIG MOMENT
GS 101·NO 107
−8pp
Q4·1:47
Saddiq Bey makes free throw 1 of 1
GS 101·NO 107
−3pp

Betting line

GS -1.5·O/U 229.5·GS -122/NO +102

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ew Orleans Pelicans held off Golden State Warriors, 113–109. Decided by 4.

NO +1.5 cashed (GS lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 229.5 by 7.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Karlo MatkovicNO · F
TS%69.698
Herbert JonesNO · F
DEFL3.596
Zion WilliamsonNO · F
DRIVES13.796
Draymond GreenGS · F
CONT7.593
De'Anthony MeltonGS · G
DEFL2.992

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · GS favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NO vs GS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Stephen CurryGS
25.2± 8.3high
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
20.4± 6.0high
Trey Murphy IIINO
20.0± 6.2high

Rebounds

Derik QueenNO
8.1± 5.6high
Kevon LooneyNO
6.6± 3.6high
DeAndre JordanNO
6.5± 4.6low

Assists

Draymond GreenGS
6.6± 3.0high
Dejounte MurrayNO
6.4± 4.4low
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
4.8± 1.7high

Blocks

Yves MissiNO
1.8± 1.5high
Al HorfordGS
1.1± 1.3high
Derik QueenNO
1.0± 0.9high

Steals

Dejounte MurrayNO
1.6± 0.9low
De'Anthony MeltonGS
1.5± 1.4high
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
1.5± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

55.1%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.7%

46.2%

FG%

47.0

46.6%

114.5

PPG

114.9

115.5

28.8

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.1

15.1

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.5

Data via ESPN · hoopR