NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+17CHA

CHA

27-31

129112

WSH

16-40

NBASun, Feb 22FinalSeriesCHA wins series 4-0VegasCHA -10.5

CHA · top performer

LaMelo Ball

G · #1

36.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

WSH · top performer

Bilal Coulibaly

G · #0

17.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCHA ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 10pp · 3rd Quarter · 6:23

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
G. WilliamsF · #2	26	5	1-4	1-3	2-3	+33	4	5
B. MillerF · #24	26	22	8-14	5-7	1-2	+7	4	3
R. KalkbrennerC · #11	15	6	2-3	—	2-2	+24	9	2
L. BallG · #1	27	37	12-20	10-15	3-3	+20	8	7
K. KnueppelG · #7	28	28	10-18	5-9	3-5	+33	7	4
Bench
X. TillmanF · #26	4	0	0-1	—	—	-4	1	0
T. SalaunF · #31	21	9	3-3	2-2	1-2	-9	2	1
P. HallC · #16	17	2	0-4	—	2-2	-7	5	1
P. ConnaughtonG · #21	11	2	1-3	0-1	—	-17	3	0
J. GreenG · #10	23	12	4-6	2-4	2-2	+10	4	1
T. MannG · #23	21	6	2-8	0-3	2-2	-3	0	3
S. JamesG · #4	21	0	0-3	0-2	0-2	-2	6	0
Team		129	43-87	25-46	18-25		53	27
DNP: M. Bridges, M. Diabate

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. GillF · #16	31	8	4-5	0-1	—	-33	5	4
K. GeorgeF · #18	18	13	4-9	2-4	3-3	-21	2	1
B. CarringtonG · #7	30	6	2-10	1-6	1-2	-27	3	2
B. CoulibalyG · #0	17	17	6-9	3-4	2-4	-6	2	2
T. JohnsonG · #12	19	11	5-10	1-3	—	-21	1	3
Bench
S. CooperG · #13	22	9	3-5	1-2	2-3	-4	3	3
A. WilliamsG · #31	34	8	3-5	2-3	—	+4	7	3
J. WatkinsG · #5	16	13	5-10	3-7	0-1	+13	4	1
J. HardyG · #8	22	16	5-10	4-8	2-2	+6	4	1
W. RileyG · #27	31	11	4-11	1-4	2-2	+4	6	4
Team		112	41-84	18-42	12-17		37	24
DNP: J. Champagnie, T. Vukcevic

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CHA

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

43-87

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

41-84

FG %

25-46

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

18-42

18-25

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

12-17

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

CHA wins series 4-0

Oct 26

CHA139@

WSH113

Dec 24

WSH109@

CHA126

Jan 24

WSH115@

CHA119

Feb 22

CHA129@

WSH112today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHA -10.5

Half-pt above key 10

Total

223.5

Standard · -2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHA-53584%

WSH+40020%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHA -10.5↗SpreadBet CHA -10.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

10.5

0.0 since open

Total

223.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CHA beat WSH 129-112. L. Ball led the way with 37 points and 8 rebounds. CHA outscored the other side 44-28 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

WSH vs CHA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CHAstarters 76% of pts

Starters(5)

98 PTS · 32 REB · 21 AST

GS 92

Bench(7)

31 PTS · 21 REB · 6 AST

GS 25

WSHstarters 49% of pts

Starters(5)

55 PTS · 13 REB · 12 AST

GS 40

Bench(5)

57 PTS · 24 REB · 12 AST

GS 51

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

WSH2nd Quarter · 9:45 · 44-39

+9pp→ 11% WP

Josh Green · enters the game for Sion James

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CHA	38	23	44	24	129
WSH	37	19	28	28	112

Period scoring

CHA won 3 · WSH won 1

Ball 13

Coulibaly 15

Knueppel 7

Cooper 4

Ball 18

Full 26

Knueppel 8

Hardy 11

CHA

WSH

Shooting comparison

CHA

WSH

49%

43-87

49%

41-84

54%

25-46

3PT

43%

18-42

72%

18-25

71%

12-17

Play-by-play · 446 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHA 129·WSH 112
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHA 129·WSH 112
Q4·3.3
Alondes Williams bad pass turnover (Tre Mann steals)
· ·
CHA 129·WSH 112
Q4·6.4
Alondes Williams defensive rebound
·
CHA 129·WSH 112
Q4·8.8
Tre Mann misses 19-foot step back jumpshot
CHA 129·WSH 112
Q4·31.9
Sharife Cooper makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
CHA 129·WSH 112
Q4·53.0
Will Riley defensive rebound
CHA 129·WSH 109
Q4·54.8
Sion James misses free throw 2 of 2
CHA 129·WSH 109
Q4·54.8
Hornets offensive team rebound
CHA 129·WSH 109
Q4·54.8
Sion James misses free throw 1 of 2
CHA 129·WSH 109
Q4·54.8
Sharife Cooper shooting foul
CHA 129·WSH 109
Q4·1:12
Sion James defensive rebound
CHA 129·WSH 109
Q4·1:17
Will Riley misses 27-foot three point jumper
CHA 129·WSH 109
Q4·1:24
Sion James bad pass turnover (Will Riley steals)
·
CHA 129·WSH 109
Q4·1:43
Jamir Watkins makes 1-foot driving dunk (Will Riley assists)
·
CHA 129·WSH 109
Q4·2:07
Tidjane Salaun makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tre Mann assists)
·
CHA 129·WSH 107
Q4·2:33
Alondes Williams makes running dunk (Sharife Cooper assists)
· ·
CHA 126·WSH 107
Q4·2:35
Sharife Cooper defensive rebound
CHA 126·WSH 105
Q4·2:39
Josh Green misses 23-foot three point jumper
CHA 126·WSH 105
Q4·2:42
Pat Connaughton offensive rebound
CHA 126·WSH 105
Q4·2:47
Tre Mann misses 29-foot three point jumper
CHA 126·WSH 105
Q4·2:56
Josh Green offensive rebound
CHA 126·WSH 105
Q4·3:01
Pat Connaughton misses 28-foot three point jumper
CHA 126·WSH 105
Q4·3:26
Josh Green enters the game for PJ Hall
·
CHA 126·WSH 105
Q4·3:26
Hornets Full timeout
CHA 126·WSH 105
Q4·3:26
Sharife Cooper makes running layup (Alondes Williams assists)
· ·
CHA 126·WSH 105
Q4·3:31
Jaden Hardy defensive rebound
CHA 126·WSH 103
Q4·3:34
Jamir Watkins blocks Pat Connaughton 's 4-foot layup
·
CHA 126·WSH 103
Q4·3:48
Sion James defensive rebound
CHA 126·WSH 103
Q4·3:50
Jamir Watkins misses free throw 1 of 1
CHA 126·WSH 103

Betting line

CHA -10.5·O/U 223.5·CHA -535/WSH +400

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

harlotte Hornets went into Washington Wizards and beat them, 129–112.

CHA -10.5 cashed (won by 17). Total cleared the 223.5 OVER by 17.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Ryan KalkbrennerCHA · C
TS%76.299+
LaMelo BallMIN · G
USG%31.397
Anthony GillWSH · F
TS%68.297
Bilal CoulibalyWSH · G
DEFL3.194
Brandon MillerCHA · F
USG%27.893

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CHA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CHA

league avg

WSH

55.0%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.5%

45.9%

FG%

47.0

46.3%

115.8

PPG

◀

114.9

112.9

26.2

Assists / G

◀

25.0

14.4

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR