NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+16DET

DET

42-13

126110

CHI

24-33

NBASat, Feb 21FinalSeriesDET wins series 3-1VegasDET -10.5

DET · top performer

Jalen Duren

C · #0

23.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CHI · top performer

Josh Giddey

G · #3

18.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDET ↔ CHI

Biggest swing: 8pp · 1st Quarter · 1.8

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. HarrisF · #12	30	18	8-14	2-5	—	+3	6	1
D. RobinsonF · #55	24	17	5-12	5-10	2-2	+11	3	2
J. DurenC · #0	29	26	12-20	—	2-5	+22	13	2
C. CunninghamG · #2	30	18	7-16	3-6	1-1	+28	9	13
A. ThompsonG · #9	32	8	4-12	0-1	—	+21	3	8
Bench
P. ReedF · #7	19	15	7-11	—	1-1	-6	9	0
R. Holland IIF · #5	17	9	3-5	0-2	3-3	+5	4	2
J. GreenG · #31	17	2	1-1	—	—	+5	3	1
C. LeVertG · #8	18	7	2-7	1-2	2-3	+5	0	2
M. SasserG · #25	3	3	1-1	1-1	—	-2	0	1
D. JenkinsG · #24	21	3	1-6	1-2	—	-12	0	2
Team		126	51-105	13-29	11-15		50	34
DNP: T. Smith, I. Stewart, K. Huerter, C. Lanier

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
G. YabuseleF · #28	24	12	3-7	2-4	4-5	-13	9	8
J. SmithF · #25	25	15	5-6	3-4	2-3	-3	7	2
I. OkoroF · #35	34	15	5-12	3-6	2-2	-18	3	3
M. BuzelisF · #14	30	15	5-10	2-7	3-4	-19	6	3
J. GiddeyG · #3	27	27	10-16	5-8	2-5	-7	6	3
Bench
P. WilliamsF · #44	16	6	2-5	2-4	—	-10	1	1
L. MillerF · #11	3	0	0-1	—	—	+2	0	1
N. RichardsC · #13	19	5	2-6	0-2	1-2	-12	5	0
C. SextonG · #2	15	2	1-5	0-2	—	+3	2	1
A. SimonsG · #22	13	4	2-6	0-1	—	+3	2	0
T. JonesG · #30	26	7	3-7	0-1	1-1	-2	2	6
R. DillinghamG · #7	8	2	0-3	0-1	2-2	-4	1	1
Team		110	38-84	17-40	17-24		44	29

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

CHI

Home

51-105

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

38-84

FG %

13-29

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

17-40

11-15

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-24

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

DET wins series 3-1

Oct 23

DET111@

CHI115

Nov 13

CHI113@

DET124

Jan 8

CHI93@

DET108

Feb 22

DET126@

CHI110today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -10.5

Half-pt above key 10

Total

234.5

High-scoring · +8.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DET-55085%

CHI+41020%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -10.5↗SpreadBet DET -10.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

10.5

0.0 since open

Total

234.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DET beat CHI 126-110. J. Duren paced them with 26 PTS, 13 REB, 2 AST. DET outscored the other side 44-26 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CHI vs DET

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DETstarters 69% of pts

Starters(5)

87 PTS · 34 REB · 26 AST

GS 83

Bench(6)

39 PTS · 16 REB · 8 AST

GS 27

CHIstarters 76% of pts

Starters(5)

84 PTS · 31 REB · 19 AST

GS 76

Bench(7)

26 PTS · 13 REB · 10 AST

GS 14

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CHI1st Quarter · 1.8 · 28-30

+8pp→ 33% WP

Paul Reed · lost ball turnover (Collin Sexton steals)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DET	28	25	44	29	126
CHI	30	20	26	34	110

Period scoring

DET won 2 · CHI won 2

Cunningham 8

Sexton 10

Duren 8

Harris 7

Duren 10

Jones 7

Robinson 9

Yabusele 10

DET

CHI

Shooting comparison

DET

CHI

49%

51-105

45%

38-84

45%

13-29

3PT

43%

17-40

73%

11-15

71%

17-24

Play-by-play · 503 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DET 126·CHI 110
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DET 126·CHI 110
Q4·15.5
Nick Richards makes two point shot
DET 126·CHI 110
Q4·15.5
Nick Richards offensive rebound
DET 126·CHI 108
Q4·17.1
Leonard Miller misses driving layup
DET 126·CHI 108
Q4·29.6
Paul Reed makes free throw 1 of 1
DET 126·CHI 108
Q4·29.6
Nick Richards shooting foul
DET 125·CHI 108
Q4·29.6
Paul Reed makes tip in dunk
DET 125·CHI 108
Q4·29.6
Paul Reed offensive rebound
DET 123·CHI 108
Q4·31.6
Daniss Jenkins misses two point shot
DET 123·CHI 108
Q4·46.9
Rob Dillingham makes free throw 2 of 2
DET 123·CHI 108
Q4·46.9
Rob Dillingham makes free throw 1 of 2
DET 123·CHI 107
Q4·46.9
Marcus Sasser shooting foul
DET 123·CHI 106
Q4·53.7
Marcus Sasser makes 23-foot three point jumper (Daniss Jenkins assists)
·
DET 123·CHI 106
Q4·1:13
Guerschon Yabusele makes free throw 2 of 2
DET 120·CHI 106
Q4·1:13
Guerschon Yabusele makes free throw 1 of 2
DET 120·CHI 105
Q4·1:13
Daniss Jenkins shooting foul
DET 120·CHI 104
Q4·1:19
Marcus Sasser lost ball turnover (Rob Dillingham steals)
·
DET 120·CHI 104
Q4·1:36
Guerschon Yabusele makes 25-foot three pointer (Leonard Miller assists)
·
DET 120·CHI 104
Q4·1:48
Daniss Jenkins out of bounds bad pass turnover
DET 120·CHI 101
Q4·2:06
Guerschon Yabusele makes free throw 2 of 2
DET 120·CHI 101
Q4·2:06
Guerschon Yabusele makes free throw 1 of 2
DET 120·CHI 100
Q4·2:06
Paul Reed shooting foul
DET 120·CHI 99
Q4·2:16
Daniss Jenkins makes 26-foot three point jumper (Marcus Sasser assists)
·
DET 120·CHI 99
Q4·2:22
Ronald Holland II defensive rebound
DET 117·CHI 99
Q4·2:26
Rob Dillingham misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
DET 117·CHI 99
Q4·2:39
Marcus Sasser enters the game for Duncan Robinson
·
DET 117·CHI 99
Q4·2:39
Leonard Miller enters the game for Tre Jones
·
DET 117·CHI 99
Q4·2:39
Nick Richards enters the game for Matas Buzelis
·
DET 117·CHI 99
Q4·2:39
Rob Dillingham enters the game for Josh Giddey
·
DET 117·CHI 99

Betting line

DET -10.5·O/U 234.5·DET -550/CHI +410

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

etroit Pistons went into Chicago Bulls and beat them, 126–110.

DET -10.5 cashed (won by 16). Total cleared the 234.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Cade CunninghamDET · G
TOUCHES9799+
Josh GiddeyCHI · G
TOUCHES94.199
Jalen DurenDET · C
TS%68.898
Ausar ThompsonDET · G
DEFL3.596
Matas BuzelisCHI · F
CONT7.995

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHI vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Cade CunninghamDET
26.1± 9.6high
Norman PowellCHI
18.4± 5.3high
Tre JonesCHI
17.5± 7.4high

Rebounds

Jalen DurenDET
9.1± 3.9high
Josh GiddeyCHI
8.1± 4.3high
Nick RichardsCHI
6.7± 2.5high

Assists

Josh GiddeyCHI
9.9± 4.4high
Cade CunninghamDET
8.2± 2.8high
Tre JonesCHI
5.2± 2.9high

Blocks

Matas BuzelisCHI
1.5± 1.4high
Jalen DurenDET
1.0± 1.1high
Jalen SmithCHI
0.9± 1.0high

Steals

Cade CunninghamDET
1.4± 1.2high
Duncan RobinsonDET
1.2± 1.7high
Josh GiddeyCHI
1.1± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DET

league avg

CHI

54.2%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

54.7%

48.0%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.9%

115.9

PPG

114.9

116.3

27.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

28.5

14.3

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR