MEM
21-34
MIA
31-27
MEM · top performer
GG Jackson
F · #45
28
Pts
9
Reb
2
Ast
MIA · top performer
Andrew Wiggins
F · #22
28
Pts
7
Reb
3
Ast
Biggest swing: 18pp · 2nd Quarter · 5:51
NBA · Memphis Grizzlies at Miami Heat · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 26 | 9 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 2-2 | -9 | 3 | 4 | |
| 24 | 4 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 1-4 | -2 | 2 | 0 | |
| 27 | 25 | 10-13 | 3-5 | 2-2 | -8 | 2 | 2 | |
| 22 | 17 | 6-16 | 3-8 | 2-2 | -8 | 6 | 4 | |
| 25 | 9 | 4-11 | 1-6 | — | -1 | 4 | 6 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 26 | 28 | 11-17 | 1-5 | 5-8 | -9 | 9 | 2 | |
| 21 | 18 | 7-15 | 3-7 | 1-2 | -20 | 3 | 6 | |
| 21 | 0 | 0-5 | 0-3 | — | -8 | 2 | 5 | |
| 22 | 0 | 0-6 | 0-3 | — | -7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 26 | 10 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 2-2 | -8 | 1 | 1 | |
| Team | 120 | 45-95 | 15-43 | 15-22 | 35 | 31 | ||
| DNP: K. Anderson, C. Coward | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 29 | 28 | 9-10 | 4-4 | 6-6 | +22 | 7 | 3 | |
| 27 | 13 | 4-7 | 1-3 | 4-5 | +27 | 6 | 5 | |
| 27 | 25 | 10-16 | 3-8 | 2-7 | +17 | 2 | 6 | |
| 35 | 10 | 3-7 | 0-4 | 4-6 | +14 | 1 | 5 | |
| 23 | 12 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 2-2 | +12 | 3 | 5 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | -8 | 0 | 0 | |
| 6 | 5 | 2-3 | 1-2 | — | +6 | 3 | 2 | |
| 2 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-1 | — | -8 | 3 | 0 | |
| 23 | 12 | 5-12 | 0-2 | 2-2 | +3 | 5 | 2 | |
| 19 | 11 | 5-9 | 1-2 | — | -3 | 15 | 0 | |
| 22 | 4 | 1-4 | — | 2-2 | -2 | 6 | 2 | |
| 23 | 14 | 5-15 | 1-4 | 3-3 | +8 | 5 | 6 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | — | -8 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 136 | 49-95 | 13-36 | 25-33 | 57 | 36 | ||
| DNP: N. Jovic, D. Mitchell | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
47
FG %
52
31
Ast
36
Team stats
MEM
Away
Stat
MIA
Home
45-95
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
49-95
47
FG %
52
15-43
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
13-36
15-22
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
25-33
31
Assists
36
13
Turnovers
18
Season series
MIA wins series 2-0
MIA146@MEM114MEM120@MIA136todayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
MIA -11.5
Between 10 and —
Total
238.5
High-scoring · +12.5 vs avg
Moneyline
MEM+41020%MIA-55085%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
11.5
0.0 since open
Total
238.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
MIA beat MEM 136-120. A. Wiggins paced them with 28 PTS, 7 REB, 3 AST. MIA outscored the other side 39-26 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
MIA vs MEM
Starters vs bench
production by unitMEMstarters 53% of ptsStarters(5)
64 PTS · 17 REB · 16 AST
GS 53
Bench(5)
56 PTS · 18 REB · 15 AST
GS 49
MIAstarters 65% of ptsStarters(5)
88 PTS · 19 REB · 24 AST
GS 81
Bench(8)
48 PTS · 38 REB · 12 AST
GS 39
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactJahmai Mashack · enters the game for Jaylen Wells
Andrew Wiggins · makes free throw 1 of 1
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEM | 33 | 35 | 26 | 26 | 120 |
| MIA | 39 | 34 | 39 | 24 | 136 |
Period scoring
MEM won 2 · MIA won 2
Q1
Jackson 11
Wiggins 12
Q2
Jerome 7
Powell 9
Q3
Prosper 7
Wiggins 33
Q4
Wells 8
Adebayo 7
Shooting comparison
47%
45-95
FG
52%
49-95
35%
15-43
3PT
36%
13-36
68%
15-22
FT
76%
25-33
Play-by-play · 519 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MEM 120·MIA 136
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MEM 120·MIA 136
- Q4·0.1
Grizzlies offensive team rebound
MEM 120·MIA 136
- Q4·0.1
Keshad Johnson blocks GG Jackson 's 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
·
MEM 120·MIA 136
- Q4·5.6
Grizzlies defensive team rebound
MEM 120·MIA 136
- Q4·6.7
Trevor Keels misses 28-foot three point jumper
MEM 120·MIA 136
- Q4·21.1
GG Jackson makes free throw 2 of 2
MEM 120·MIA 136
- Q4·21.1
GG Jackson makes free throw 1 of 2
MEM 119·MIA 136
- Q4·21.1
Kasparas Jakucionis personal foul
MEM 118·MIA 136
- Q4·21.1
GG Jackson defensive rebound
MEM 118·MIA 136
- Q4·23.4
GG Jackson blocks Keshad Johnson 's 2-foot driving layup
·
MEM 118·MIA 136
- Q4·40.1
Taylor Hendricks makes free throw 2 of 2
MEM 118·MIA 136
- Q4·40.1
Grizzlies offensive team rebound
MEM 117·MIA 136
- Q4·40.1
Taylor Hendricks misses free throw 1 of 2
MEM 117·MIA 136
- Q4·40.1
Keshad Johnson shooting foul
MEM 117·MIA 136
- Q4·41.4
Keshad Johnson bad pass turnover (Taylor Hendricks steals)
·
MEM 117·MIA 136
- Q4·47.8
Keshad Johnson defensive rebound
MEM 117·MIA 136
- Q4·50.6
GG Jackson misses free throw 1 of 1
MEM 117·MIA 136
- Q4·50.6
Simone Fontecchio shooting foul
MEM 117·MIA 136
- Q4·50.6
GG Jackson makes tip shot
MEM 117·MIA 136
- Q4·50.6
GG Jackson offensive rebound
MEM 115·MIA 136
- Q4·50.6
GG Jackson misses two point shot
MEM 115·MIA 136
- Q4·53.9
Cam Spencer defensive rebound
MEM 115·MIA 136
- Q4·57.2
Dru Smith misses driving floating jump shot
MEM 115·MIA 136
- Q4·1:08
Javon Small makes free throw 2 of 2
MEM 115·MIA 136
- Q4·1:08
Javon Small makes free throw 1 of 2
MEM 114·MIA 136
- Q4·1:08
Dru Smith shooting foul
MEM 113·MIA 136
- Q4·1:16
Cam Spencer defensive rebound
MEM 113·MIA 136
- Q4·1:20
Keshad Johnson misses 25-foot three point jumper
MEM 113·MIA 136
- Q4·1:27
Keshad Johnson defensive rebound
MEM 113·MIA 136
Betting line
MIA -11.5·O/U 238.5·MEM +410/MIA -550
Recap · NBA
iami Heat held off Memphis Grizzlies, 136–120.
MIA -11.5 cashed (won by 16). Total cleared the 238.5 OVER by 17.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
Ty JeromeMEM · GUSG%33.999- Andrew WigginsMIA · FCONT7.693
Olivier-Maxence ProsperMEM · FTS%66.293
Cam SpencerMEM · GTS%64.992
Bam AdebayoMIA · CCONT6.891
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · MEM favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIA vs MEM.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
160
projections · 115 high confidence
Points
- Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA25.0± 4.5high
- Ty JeromeMEM18.9± 4.2medium
- Bam AdebayoMIA18.4± 7.8high
Rebounds
- Zach EdeyMEM11.3± 7.8low
- Bam AdebayoMIA10.3± 3.7high
- Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA9.9± 4.4high
Assists
- Davion MitchellMIA5.9± 2.8high
- Ty JeromeMEM5.4± 2.7medium
- Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA5.1± 2.6high
Blocks
- Zach EdeyMEM1.9± 2.3low
- GG JacksonMEM0.9± 0.7high
- Andrew WigginsMIA0.9± 0.9high
Steals
- Scotty Pippen Jr.MEM1.9± 2.1low
- Taylor HendricksMEM1.5± 2.0high
- Jahmai MashackMEM1.3± 1.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
MEM
league avg
MIA
53.3%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶54.2%
45.6%
FG%
47.0
▶46.8%
114.7
PPG
114.9
▶120.9
27.8
Assists / G
25.0
▶29.0
14.6
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶13.0