NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+27SA

PHX

32-24

94121

39-16

NBAThu, Feb 19FinalSeriesPHX leads series 2-1VegasSA -7.5

PHX · top performer

Jalen Green

G · #4

16.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SA · top performer

Victor Wembanyama

F · #1

18.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPHX ↔ SA

Biggest swing: 12pp · 2nd Quarter · 11:43

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
R. O'NealeF · #00	27	8	3-8	2-5	—	-18	7	1
M. WilliamsC · #15	23	11	4-12	—	3-4	-19	10	0
D. BookerG · #1	9	5	2-6	0-2	1-2	-7	1	0
C. GillespieG · #12	30	8	3-13	2-8	—	-11	2	8
J. GreenG · #4	26	26	11-23	4-9	—	-20	3	2
Bench
I. LiversF · #18	10	0	0-1	0-1	—	+2	1	1
O. IghodaroF · #11	18	10	5-8	—	—	-7	2	5
R. DunnF · #0	22	2	1-4	0-2	—	-9	4	1
R. FlemingF · #20	12	3	1-4	1-2	—	0	3	0
K. MaluachC · #10	8	4	2-6	0-2	—	-1	6	0
A. CoffeyG · #2	12	0	0-1	0-1	—	-7	0	1
J. GoodwinG · #23	27	10	4-12	2-7	—	-27	4	1
J. BouyeaG · #17	18	7	3-7	1-3	—	-11	3	2
Team		94	39-105	12-42	4-6		46	22
DNP: D. Brooks

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ChampagnieF · #30	22	8	2-3	1-2	3-3	+20	6	1
V. WembanyamaF · #1	25	17	7-15	1-4	2-2	+23	11	4
D. FoxG · #4	22	15	4-9	2-5	5-6	+20	3	8
D. VassellG · #24	23	12	5-9	2-5	—	+17	2	2
S. CastleG · #5	21	20	8-11	2-4	2-2	+22	2	4
Bench
H. BarnesF · #40	20	8	3-8	1-4	1-1	+16	4	4
K. OlynykF · #8	10	0	—	—	—	-4	3	1
K. JohnsonF · #3	20	6	2-6	0-2	2-2	+20	2	1
C. BryantF · #11	16	6	2-6	2-4	—	+4	6	1
B. BiyomboC · #18	10	2	—	—	2-2	-4	1	1
L. KornetC · #7	16	10	5-5	—	—	+1	9	2
J. McLaughlinG · #0	10	0	0-4	0-2	—	-4	0	0
D. HarperG · #2	26	17	7-11	2-5	1-2	+4	1	1
Team		121	45-87	13-37	18-20		50	30

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

PHX

Away

Stat

Home

39-105

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

45-87

FG %

12-42

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-37

4-6

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

18-20

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

PHX leads series 2-1

Nov 3

SA118@

PHX130

Nov 24

SA102@

PHX111

Feb 20

PHX94@

SA121today

Mar 20

PHX100@

SA101

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

Total

229.5

Standard · +3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PHX+23030%

SA-28574%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -7.5↗SpreadBet SA -7.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

0.0 since open

Total

229.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SA beat PHX 121-94. V. Wembanyama led with 17 PTS, 11 REB, 4 AST. SA outscored the other side 37-22 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SA vs PHX

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PHXstarters 62% of pts

Starters(5)

58 PTS · 23 REB · 11 AST

GS 38

Bench(8)

36 PTS · 23 REB · 11 AST

GS 27

SAstarters 60% of pts

Starters(5)

72 PTS · 24 REB · 19 AST

GS 69

Bench(8)

49 PTS · 26 REB · 11 AST

GS 44

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PHX1st Quarter · 10:47 · 2-2

+10pp→ 32% WP

Stephon Castle · lost ball turnover (Jalen Green steals)

PHX2nd Quarter · 11:43 · 25-30

+12pp→ 27% WP

Collin Gillespie · steps out of bounds turnover

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
PHX	25	24	22	23	94
SA	30	31	37	23	121

Period scoring

PHX won 0 · SA won 3

Green 11

Vassell 7

O'Neale 6

Wembanyama 36

Williams 5

Castle 7

Green 7

Harper 7

PHX

Shooting comparison

PHX

37%

39-105

52%

45-87

29%

12-42

3PT

35%

13-37

67%

4-6

90%

18-20

Play-by-play · 464 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 94·SA 121
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 94·SA 121
Q4·11.4
shot clock turnover
PHX 94·SA 121
Q4·36.0
Khaman Maluach offensive foul turnover
PHX 94·SA 121
Q4·36.0
Khaman Maluach offensive charge
PHX 94·SA 121
Q4·53.0
Dylan Harper makes 19-foot pullup jump shot
PHX 94·SA 121
Q4·1:07
Carter Bryant defensive rebound
PHX 94·SA 119
Q4·1:09
Jamaree Bouyea misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
PHX 94·SA 119
Q4·1:22
Carter Bryant makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kelly Olynyk assists)
·
PHX 94·SA 119
Q4·1:31
Kelly Olynyk defensive rebound
PHX 94·SA 116
Q4·1:34
Khaman Maluach misses 26-foot three point jumper
PHX 94·SA 116
Q4·1:40
Khaman Maluach defensive rebound
PHX 94·SA 116
Q4·1:42
Dylan Harper misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
PHX 94·SA 116
Q4·1:46
Carter Bryant offensive rebound
PHX 94·SA 116
Q4·1:49
Jordan McLaughlin misses 24-foot three point jumper
PHX 94·SA 116
Q4·2:06
Rasheer Fleming makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jamaree Bouyea assists)
·
PHX 94·SA 116
Q4·2:15
Jamaree Bouyea defensive rebound
PHX 91·SA 116
Q4·2:17
Carter Bryant misses 23-foot three point jumper
PHX 91·SA 116
Q4·2:34
Bismack Biyombo defensive goaltending violation
PHX 91·SA 116
Q4·2:34
Jamaree Bouyea makes driving layup
PHX 91·SA 116
Q4·2:51
Bismack Biyombo loose ball foul
PHX 89·SA 116
Q4·2:51
Suns defensive team rebound
PHX 89·SA 116
Q4·2:51
Jordan McLaughlin misses driving floating jump shot
PHX 89·SA 116
Q4·3:07
Jamaree Bouyea makes 26-foot three pointer (Amir Coffey assists)
·
PHX 89·SA 116
Q4·3:20
Suns defensive team rebound
PHX 86·SA 116
Q4·3:20
Carter Bryant misses 1-foot two point shot
PHX 86·SA 116
Q4·3:33
Khaman Maluach makes 2-foot dunk (Jamaree Bouyea assists)
·
PHX 86·SA 116
Q4·3:45
Bismack Biyombo makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 84·SA 116
Q4·3:45
Bismack Biyombo makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 84·SA 115
Q4·3:45
Amir Coffey shooting foul
PHX 84·SA 114

Betting line

SA -7.5·O/U 229.5·PHX +230/SA -285

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

an Antonio Spurs held off Phoenix Suns, 121–94. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

SA -7.5 cashed (won by 27). Total stayed UNDER 229.5 by 14.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Victor WembanyamaSA · F
CONT11.999+
Jalen GreenPHX · G
USG%31.798
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.898
Devin BookerPHX · G
USG%31.397
Mark WilliamsPHX · C
CONT8.496

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · PHX favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SA vs PHX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Devin BookerPHX
24.6± 6.2high
Jalen GreenPHX
21.0± 10.3high
Dillon BrooksPHX
20.2± 8.1high

Rebounds

Miles BridgesPHX
5.8± 3.6high
Julian ChampagnieSA
5.6± 2.5high
Oso IghodaroPHX
5.5± 3.2high

Assists

De'Aaron FoxSA
6.1± 1.3high
Stephon CastleSA
6.1± 1.7high
Devin BookerPHX
5.8± 2.3high

Blocks

Oso IghodaroPHX
0.8± 0.7high
Jalen GreenPHX
0.7± 1.4high
Khaman MaluachPHX
0.6± 1.1high

Steals

Jordan GoodwinPHX
1.8± 2.1high
De'Aaron FoxSA
1.4± 1.0high
Jalen GreenPHX
1.2± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

PHX

league avg

53.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.3%

45.5%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.7%

112.2

PPG

114.9

▶

118.2

24.5

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.3

13.6

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR