IND
15-41
WSH
15-39
IND · top performer
Ben Sheppard
G · #26
15
Pts
3
Reb
2
Ast
WSH · top performer
Tristan Vukcevic
F · #00
12
Pts
5
Reb
2
Ast
Biggest swing: 31pp · 4th Quarter · 4:38
NBA · Indiana Pacers at Washington Wizards · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 30 | 19 | 5-15 | 1-7 | 8-10 | -2 | 14 | 7 | |
| 21 | 15 | 3-8 | 1-5 | 8-8 | +5 | 8 | 1 | |
| 22 | 5 | 2-7 | 1-3 | — | -9 | 1 | 4 | |
| 15 | 3 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 3-3 | -4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 27 | 15 | 6-8 | 3-4 | — | -2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 27 | 14 | 5-10 | 2-4 | 2-2 | -12 | 6 | 1 | |
| 27 | 2 | 1-7 | 0-2 | — | +15 | 2 | 1 | |
| 33 | 12 | 5-11 | 2-4 | — | -6 | 9 | 1 | |
| 14 | 4 | 2-2 | — | — | -12 | 0 | 2 | |
| 25 | 16 | 5-12 | 5-11 | 1-4 | -8 | 5 | 2 | |
| Team | 105 | 34-83 | 15-42 | 22-27 | 50 | 22 | ||
| DNP: T.J. McConnell | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 17 | 12 | 4-7 | 2-3 | 2-2 | +4 | 5 | 2 | |
| 19 | 6 | 3-10 | 0-3 | — | +2 | 3 | 1 | |
| 28 | 13 | 5-14 | 3-9 | 0-2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | |
| 23 | 12 | 4-9 | 1-3 | 3-4 | +5 | 4 | 4 | |
| 19 | 10 | 4-12 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 31 | 13 | 6-9 | 1-1 | — | +3 | 8 | 3 | |
| 24 | 8 | 3-10 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 0 | 5 | 7 | |
| 28 | 6 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 1-2 | +12 | 5 | 5 | |
| 29 | 13 | 5-7 | 0-1 | 3-3 | +8 | 5 | 3 | |
| 18 | 13 | 5-13 | 3-6 | — | -4 | 1 | 0 | |
| 4 | 6 | 2-2 | — | 2-3 | +5 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 112 | 43-98 | 11-37 | 15-20 | 46 | 30 | ||
| DNP: J. Champagnie, J. Watkins | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
41
FG %
44
22
Ast
30
Team stats
IND
Away
Stat
WSH
Home
34-83
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
43-98
41
FG %
44
15-42
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
11-37
22-27
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
15-20
22
Assists
30
23
Turnovers
10
Season series
WSH leads series 2-1
WSH86@IND119WSH108@IND89IND105@WSH112todayIND118@WSH131Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
IND -2.5
Between — and 5
Total
233.5
High-scoring · +7.5 vs avg
Moneyline
IND-13057%WSH+11048%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
2.5
0.0 since open
Total
233.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
WSH beat IND 112-105. T. Vukcevic led with 12 PTS, 5 REB, 2 AST. WSH outscored the other side 33-23 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
WSH vs IND
Starters vs bench
production by unitINDstarters 54% of ptsStarters(5)
57 PTS · 28 REB · 15 AST
GS 43
Bench(5)
48 PTS · 22 REB · 7 AST
GS 27
WSHstarters 47% of ptsStarters(5)
53 PTS · 22 REB · 12 AST
GS 46
Bench(6)
59 PTS · 24 REB · 18 AST
GS 52
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactAndrew Nembhard · out of bounds lost ball turnover
Micah Potter · makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kobe Brown assists)
Taelon Peter · bad pass turnover
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 24 | 23 | 33 | 25 | 105 |
| WSH | 26 | 33 | 29 | 24 | 112 |
Period scoring
IND won 2 · WSH won 2
Q1
Huff 7
Vukcevic 7
Q2
Brown 5
Hardy 5
Q3
Sheppard 7
Hardy 8
Q4
Peter 9
Huff 18
Shooting comparison
41%
34-83
FG
44%
43-98
36%
15-42
3PT
30%
11-37
81%
22-27
FT
75%
15-20
Play-by-play · 492 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 105·WSH 112
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 105·WSH 112
- Q4·4.9
Alondes Williams defensive rebound
IND 105·WSH 112
- Q4·7.6
Taelon Peter misses 24-foot three point jumper
IND 105·WSH 112
+0.5pp
- Q4·10.5
Pacers Full timeout
IND 105·WSH 112
- Q4·10.5
Sharife Cooper makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 105·WSH 112
- Q4·10.5
Sharife Cooper makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 105·WSH 111
- Q4·10.5
Taelon Peter personal foul
IND 105·WSH 110
- Q4·16.1
Kobe Brown personal foulBIG MOMENT
IND 105·WSH 110
+5pp
- Q4·28.2
Kobe Brown lost ball turnover (Bub Carrington steals)BIG MOMENT
·
IND 105·WSH 110
+6pp
- Q4·29.6
Kobe Brown offensive rebound
IND 105·WSH 110
−4pp
- Q4·33.2
Taelon Peter misses 27-foot three point jumper
IND 105·WSH 110
+5pp
- Q4·39.1
Pacers Full timeout
IND 105·WSH 110
+0.8pp
- Q4·47.7
Kobe Brown defensive rebound
IND 105·WSH 110
−1pp
- Q4·50.8
Sharife Cooper misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
IND 105·WSH 110
−3pp
- Q4·1:02
Ben Sheppard makes 24-foot running jump shot (Taelon Peter assists)BIG MOMENT
·
IND 105·WSH 110
−6pp
- Q4·1:06
Taelon Peter defensive rebound
IND 102·WSH 110
- Q4·1:10
Bub Carrington misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot
IND 102·WSH 110
−0.9pp
- Q4·1:25
Taelon Peter makes 27-foot running pullup jump shot
IND 102·WSH 110
−1pp
- Q4·1:28
Anthony Gill bad pass turnover (Taelon Peter steals)
·
IND 99·WSH 110
- Q4·1:31
Anthony Gill offensive rebound
IND 99·WSH 110
- Q4·1:34
Bub Carrington misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot
IND 99·WSH 110
- Q4·1:56
Ethan Thompson enters the game for Jarace Walker
·
IND 99·WSH 110
- Q4·1:56
Jarace Walker offensive foul turnover
IND 99·WSH 110
- Q4·1:56
Jarace Walker offensive foul
IND 99·WSH 110
+0.7pp
- Q4·2:09
Sharife Cooper out of bounds lost ball turnover
IND 99·WSH 110
−0.5pp
- Q4·2:16
Sharife Cooper offensive rebound
IND 99·WSH 110
+0.6pp
- Q4·2:20
Bub Carrington misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot
IND 99·WSH 110
- Q4·2:40
Jarace Walker makes 15-foot turnaround jump shot (Taelon Peter assists)
·
IND 99·WSH 110
+0.5pp
- Q4·2:48
Kadary Richmond loose ball foul
IND 97·WSH 110
−1pp
Betting line
IND -2.5·O/U 233.5·IND -130/WSH +110
Recap · NBA
ashington Wizards held off Indiana Pacers, 112–105.
WSH +2.5 cashed (IND lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 233.5 by 16.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
Andrew NembhardIND · GTOUCHES87.498
Anthony GillWSH · FTS%68.297
Jay HuffIND · CCONT8.796
Micah PotterIND · CTS%67.996
Bilal CoulibalyWSH · GDEFL3.194
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · IND favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
WSH vs IND.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
165
projections · 150 high confidence
Points
- Pascal SiakamIND23.8± 7.9high
- Anthony DavisWSH20.5± 9.2high
- Tyrese HaliburtonIND16.8± 8.1high
Rebounds
- Anthony DavisWSH11.3± 4.3high
- Julian ReeseWSH10.5± 6.4low
- Ivica ZubacIND9.5± 4.1high
Assists
- Andrew NembhardIND8.5± 4.7high
- Tyrese HaliburtonIND8.1± 4.3high
- T.J. McConnellIND6.2± 3.1high
Blocks
- Jay HuffIND1.9± 1.9high
- Anthony DavisWSH1.7± 1.5high
- Alex SarrWSH1.6± 1.4high
Steals
- Tyrese HaliburtonIND1.6± 1.3high
- Jalen SlawsonIND1.5± 1.7medium
- Julian ReeseWSH1.4± 1.7low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
IND
league avg
WSH
53.3%
Effective FG%
54.4
53.5%
45.8%
FG%
47.0
46.3%
112.4
PPG
114.9
112.9
27.7
Assists / G
25.0
25.0
13.8
Turnovers / G
14.0
15.1