NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+10ATL

ATL

27-30

117107

PHI

30-25

NBAThu, Feb 19FinalSeriesATL leads series 3-0VegasPHI -1.5

ATL · top performer

Jalen Johnson

F · #1

24.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

PHI · top performer

Tyrese Maxey

G · #0

17.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowATL ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 11pp · 4th Quarter · 2:28

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. OkongwuF · #17	26	8	4-10	0-3	—	+11	10	2
J. JohnsonF · #1	38	32	9-22	0-5	14-16	+11	10	5
Z. RisacherF · #10	27	10	4-8	2-4	—	0	7	2
N. Alexander-WalkerG · #7	33	14	4-11	2-7	4-5	0	3	4
D. DanielsG · #5	37	15	7-12	0-2	1-3	+6	7	2
Bench
C. KispertF · #24	17	5	1-5	1-3	2-2	+5	5	1
M. GueyeF · #18	10	0	0-2	—	0-2	-1	1	1
J. LandaleC · #31	22	10	3-6	2-3	2-2	-1	7	2
C. McCollumG · #3	30	23	6-13	3-5	8-10	+19	1	5
Team		117	38-89	10-32	31-40		51	24
DNP: A. Newell, B. Hield, G. Vincent, K. Wallace

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. BarlowF · #25	22	1	0-3	—	1-2	-5	3	0
A. DrummondC · #1	28	10	4-6	1-1	1-1	-7	14	3
K. Oubre Jr.G · #9	32	17	4-13	0-3	9-11	-2	3	3
T. MaxeyG · #0	39	28	8-23	4-11	8-8	-7	3	3
V. EdgecombeG · #77	34	20	7-15	3-8	3-3	-6	9	0
Bench
T. WatfordF · #12	16	4	1-6	0-1	2-2	-9	2	0
J. WalkerF · #33	10	4	1-3	1-2	1-2	-3	3	2
A. BonaC · #30	20	9	3-5	—	3-4	-3	7	0
C. PaynePG · #20	10	0	0-3	0-3	—	-5	0	5
Q. GrimesG · #5	29	14	5-9	2-4	2-4	-3	2	1
Team		107	33-86	11-33	30-37		46	17
DNP: D. Terry, J. Edwards, K. Lowry

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

38-89

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

33-86

FG %

10-32

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-33

31-40

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

30-37

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

ATL leads series 3-0

Nov 30

ATL142@

PHI134

Dec 14

PHI117@

ATL120

Feb 20

ATL117@

PHI107today

Mar 7

PHI116@

ATL125

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

241.5

High-scoring · +15.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ATL-10551%

PHI-11553%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

241.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ATL beat PHI 117-107. J. Johnson paced them with 32 PTS, 10 REB, 5 AST.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

PHI vs ATL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ATLstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

79 PTS · 37 REB · 15 AST

GS 61

Bench(4)

38 PTS · 14 REB · 9 AST

GS 36

PHIstarters 71% of pts

Starters(5)

76 PTS · 32 REB · 9 AST

GS 56

Bench(5)

31 PTS · 14 REB · 8 AST

GS 24

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PHI4th Quarter · 9:18 · 95-91

+11pp→ 26% WP

VJ Edgecombe · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cameron Payne assists)

PHI4th Quarter · 2:28 · 110-104

+11pp→ 19% WP

CJ McCollum · shooting foul

ATL4th Quarter · 50.6 · 114-106

+11pp→ 100% WP

Jalen Johnson · makes free throw 1 of 2

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
ATL	28	32	28	29	117
PHI	26	27	31	23	107

Period scoring

ATL won 3 · PHI won 1

Alexander-Walker 9

Edgecombe 11

Johnson 10

Grimes 9

Risacher 8

Maxey 11

Johnson 8

Edgecombe 7

ATL

PHI

Shooting comparison

ATL

PHI

43%

38-89

38%

33-86

31%

10-32

3PT

33%

11-33

78%

31-40

81%

30-37

Play-by-play · 536 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 117·PHI 107
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ATL 117·PHI 107
−2pp
Q4·11.0
Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound
ATL 117·PHI 106
Q4·13.4
Tyrese Maxey misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
ATL 117·PHI 106
Q4·20.9
CJ McCollum makes driving layup
ATL 117·PHI 106
−0.8pp
Q4·40.3
Jalen Johnson defensive rebound
ATL 114·PHI 106
Q4·43.4
VJ Edgecombe misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
ATL 114·PHI 106
+0.5pp
Q4·50.6
Tyrese Maxey makes technical free throw
ATL 115·PHI 107
+2pp
Q4·50.6
Jalen Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2
ATL 115·PHI 106
Q4·50.6
Jalen Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
ATL 114·PHI 106
−11pp
Q4·50.6
76ers Full timeout
ATL 113·PHI 106
−4pp
Q4·50.6
Jalen Johnson technical foulBIG MOMENT
ATL 113·PHI 106
+5pp
Q4·50.6
Tyrese Maxey shooting foul
ATL 113·PHI 106
−1pp
Q4·51.9
CJ McCollum vs. VJ Edgecombe (Dyson Daniels gains possession)
· ·
ATL 113·PHI 106
Q4·1:03
Hawks Full timeout
ATL 113·PHI 106
Q4·1:10
Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound
ATL 113·PHI 106
−0.7pp
Q4·1:14
Tyrese Maxey misses 28-foot three point step back jumpshot
ATL 113·PHI 106
−2pp
Q4·1:27
Andre Drummond defensive rebound
ATL 113·PHI 106
Q4·1:30
Jalen Johnson misses free throw 2 of 2
ATL 113·PHI 106
+3pp
Q4·1:30
Jalen Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 113·PHI 106
Q4·1:30
Quentin Grimes personal foul
ATL 112·PHI 106
−3pp
Q4·1:46
Jalen Johnson defensive rebound
ATL 112·PHI 106
−1pp
Q4·1:49
Quentin Grimes misses 17-foot fade away jump shot
ATL 112·PHI 106
−3pp
Q4·2:08
Jalen Johnson makes layup (CJ McCollum assists)
·
ATL 112·PHI 106
−4pp
Q4·2:09
CJ McCollum offensive rebound
ATL 110·PHI 106
−5pp
Q4·2:13
Kelly Oubre Jr. blocks CJ McCollum 's 7-foot driving layup
·
ATL 110·PHI 106
+4pp
Q4·2:28
Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 2 of 2
ATL 110·PHI 106
−5pp
Q4·2:28
Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 110·PHI 105
+1pp
Q4·2:28
CJ McCollum shooting foulBIG MOMENT
ATL 110·PHI 104
+11pp
Q4·2:34
Nickeil Alexander-Walker lost ball turnover (Kelly Oubre Jr. steals)BIG MOMENT
· ·
ATL 110·PHI 104
+10pp

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 241.5·ATL -105/PHI -115

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

tlanta Hawks went into Philadelphia 76ers and beat them, 117–107.

ATL +1.5 cashed (PHI lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 241.5 by 17.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Tyrese MaxeyPHI · G
TOUCHES94.599
Onyeka OkongwuATL · F
DEFL4.299
Dyson DanielsATL · G
DEFL4.299
Jalen JohnsonATL · F
TOUCHES79.397
Kelly Oubre Jr.PHI · G
DEFL3.194

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

ATL

league avg

PHI

55.1%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.9%

47.2%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.0%

117.2

PPG

◀

114.9

114.3

29.6

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.1

13.4

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR