NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+9PHX

DAL

19-34

111120

PHX

32-22

NBATue, Feb 10FinalSeriesPHX leads series 2-0VegasPHX -8.5

DAL · top performer

Naji Marshall

F · #13

25.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

PHX · top performer

Oso Ighodaro

F · #11

15.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDAL ↔ PHX

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. GaffordF · #21	17	4	2-2	—	—	-16	4	0
P.J. WashingtonF · #25	26	13	4-9	2-6	3-5	-8	5	1
C. FlaggF · #32	36	27	8-20	0-1	11-14	+10	5	2
T. JonesG · #1	15	2	1-4	0-3	—	-11	2	3
M. ChristieG · #00	31	5	2-8	0-3	1-1	+2	6	3
Bench
K. MiddletonF · #20	22	13	2-5	1-2	8-9	-10	5	2
D. PowellF · #7	3	0	—	—	—	-2	0	1
C. MartinF · #16	11	2	—	—	2-2	-18	1	0
M. Bagley IIIF · #35	24	9	4-4	—	1-4	+7	8	2
N. MarshallF · #13	36	31	12-17	2-4	5-7	+5	4	2
B. WilliamsG · #10	18	5	2-8	0-3	1-2	-4	2	2
A. JohnsonG · #8	0	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
Team		111	37-77	5-22	32-44		42	18

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
R. O'NealeF · #00	23	12	4-8	4-7	—	-2	4	2
D. BrooksF · #3	31	23	11-26	1-10	—	0	4	1
M. WilliamsC · #15	25	13	6-7	—	1-2	-8	9	1
D. BookerG · #1	32	19	7-16	3-7	2-3	-2	4	6
C. GillespieG · #12	31	5	2-7	1-5	—	+25	8	8
Bench
O. IghodaroF · #11	23	10	5-6	—	—	+17	10	4
R. DunnF · #0	17	12	4-5	2-3	2-2	+9	4	2
A. CoffeyG · #2	13	6	2-3	1-2	1-2	+1	2	1
J. GoodwinG · #23	25	8	3-10	2-8	—	+11	3	3
J. GreenG · #4	20	12	5-14	2-8	—	-6	1	4
Team		120	49-102	16-50	6-9		49	32
DNP: R. Fleming, K. Maluach, J. Bouyea

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

PHX

Home

37-77

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

49-102

FG %

5-22

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

16-50

32-44

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

6-9

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

PHX leads series 2-0

Nov 13

PHX123@

DAL114

Feb 11

DAL111@

PHX120today

Apr 9

DAL107@

PHX112

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHX -8.5

Between 7 and 10

Total

229.5

Standard · +3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DAL+27027%

PHX-34077%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHX -8.5↗SpreadBet PHX -8.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

8.5

0.0 since open

Total

229.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHX beat DAL 120-111. O. Ighodaro led with 10 PTS, 10 REB, 4 AST. PHX outscored the other side 36-16 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

PHX vs DAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DALstarters 46% of pts

Starters(5)

51 PTS · 22 REB · 9 AST

GS 35

Bench(7)

60 PTS · 20 REB · 9 AST

GS 51

PHXstarters 60% of pts

Starters(5)

72 PTS · 29 REB · 18 AST

GS 54

Bench(5)

48 PTS · 20 REB · 14 AST

GS 44

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DAL	16	32	27	36	111
PHX	36	29	31	24	120

Period scoring

DAL won 2 · PHX won 2

Marshall 6

Brooks 15

Flagg 10

O'Neale 9

Marshall 8

Booker 10

Marshall 11

Marshall 8

DAL

PHX

Shooting comparison

DAL

PHX

48%

37-77

48%

49-102

23%

5-22

3PT

32%

16-50

73%

32-44

67%

6-9

Play-by-play · 494 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DAL 111·PHX 120
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DAL 111·PHX 120
Q4·6.0
Mark Williams defensive rebound
·
DAL 111·PHX 120
Q4·7.6
P.J. Washington misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot
DAL 111·PHX 120
Q4·15.4
(00:15.4) [Mavericks] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL STANDS)
DAL 111·PHX 120
Q4·15.4
shot clock turnover
DAL 111·PHX 120
Q4·15.4
Dillon Brooks offensive rebound
DAL 111·PHX 120
Q4·17.3
Jordan Goodwin misses 12-foot two point shot
DAL 111·PHX 120
Q4·19.8
AJ Johnson enters the game for Khris Middleton
·
DAL 111·PHX 120
Q4·19.8
Tyus Jones enters the game for Cooper Flagg
·
DAL 111·PHX 120
Q4·19.8
Brandon Williams enters the game for Naji Marshall
· ·
DAL 111·PHX 120
Q4·19.8
Dwight Powell enters the game for Max Christie
·
DAL 111·PHX 120
Q4·19.8
Suns Full timeout
DAL 111·PHX 120
Q4·19.8
Collin Gillespie offensive rebound
DAL 111·PHX 120
Q4·25.7
Devin Booker misses 29-foot three point jumper
DAL 111·PHX 120
Q4·40.5
Naji Marshall steps out of bounds turnover
DAL 111·PHX 120
+0.7pp
Q4·50.6
Dillon Brooks makes 12-foot pullup jump shot (Jordan Goodwin assists)
·
DAL 111·PHX 120
+1pp
Q4·1:12
P.J. Washington makes driving layup
DAL 111·PHX 118
−0.8pp
Q4·1:20
Devin Booker makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 109·PHX 118
Q4·1:20
Suns offensive team rebound
DAL 109·PHX 117
−0.6pp
Q4·1:20
Devin Booker misses free throw 1 of 2
DAL 109·PHX 117
Q4·1:20
Khris Middleton shooting foul
DAL 109·PHX 117
+1pp
Q4·1:38
Collin Gillespie defensive rebound
DAL 109·PHX 117
+0.5pp
Q4·1:41
Khris Middleton misses 19-foot step back jumpshot
DAL 109·PHX 117
+2pp
Q4·1:50
Devin Booker makes 11-foot pullup jump shot
DAL 109·PHX 117
+3pp
Q4·2:09
Naji Marshall makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot
DAL 109·PHX 115
−2pp
Q4·2:15
Naji Marshall defensive rebound
DAL 107·PHX 115
Q4·2:20
Dillon Brooks misses 26-foot three point jumper
DAL 107·PHX 115
−1pp
Q4·2:34
(02:34) [Suns] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Suns] retain their timeout
DAL 107·PHX 115
Q4·2:34
Suns Coach's Challenge
DAL 107·PHX 115

Betting line

PHX -8.5·O/U 229.5·DAL +270/PHX -340

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

hoenix Suns held off Dallas Mavericks, 120–111.

PHX -8.5 cashed (won by 9). Total cleared the 229.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Dwight PowellDAL · F
TS%69.999
Devin BookerPHX · G
USG%31.397
Mark WilliamsPHX · C
CONT8.496
Daniel GaffordDAL · F
TS%67.796
Cooper FlaggDAL · F
DRIVES12.894

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · DAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DAL

league avg

PHX

52.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

53.7%

46.6%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.5%

114.1

PPG

◀

114.9

112.2

25.3

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.5

14.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR