NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+7HOU

LAC

25-28

95102

HOU

33-19

NBATue, Feb 10FinalSeriesHOU leads series 2-1VegasHOU -9.5

LAC · top performer

Kawhi Leonard

F · #2

18.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

HOU · top performer

Alperen Sengun

C · #28

16.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowLAC ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 21pp · 3rd Quarter · 2:46

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. LeonardF · #2	31	24	7-19	2-7	8-9	-16	8	3
J. CollinsF · #20	31	17	8-14	0-2	1-2	-11	8	1
D. Jones Jr.F · #5	27	6	2-7	2-6	—	-7	1	0
B. LopezC · #11	29	7	3-6	1-2	—	-8	2	0
K. DunnG · #8	28	6	3-5	0-1	—	-9	2	7
Bench
D. BantonF · #45	5	4	2-2	—	—	+8	1	2
I. JacksonF · #23	5	5	2-2	—	1-3	+8	1	0
Y. NiederhauserC · #14	13	3	1-3	—	1-2	-7	4	0
J. MillerG · #22	17	9	2-5	2-4	3-6	-5	4	2
B. MathurinG · #9	26	9	4-13	0-2	1-1	+4	7	4
T. Washington Jr.G · #15	5	3	1-2	1-1	—	+8	1	1
K. SandersG · #4	16	2	1-9	0-5	—	-8	4	4
C. ChristieG · #12	5	0	0-1	—	—	+8	2	0
Team		95	36-88	8-30	15-23		45	24
DNP: N. Batum, B. Bogdanovic

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. DurantF · #7	38	26	8-22	3-7	7-7	+3	6	3
J. Smith Jr.F · #10	38	13	4-11	2-3	3-3	+13	10	3
T. EasonF · #17	30	6	2-10	2-6	—	0	5	1
A. SengunC · #28	35	22	9-14	1-2	3-4	+9	7	5
A. ThompsonG · #1	37	16	6-10	1-2	3-4	+9	6	1
Bench
D. Finney-SmithF · #2	20	3	1-2	1-2	—	+11	1	2
C. CapelaC · #30	13	0	—	—	—	-5	3	0
R. SheppardG · #15	30	16	6-10	4-6	—	-5	6	4
Team		102	36-79	14-28	16-18		44	19
DNP: J. Green, J. Tate, I. Crawford, A. Holiday, J. Okogie

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

LAC

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

36-88

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

36-79

FG %

8-30

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-28

15-23

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

16-18

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

HOU leads series 2-1

Dec 12

LAC113@

HOU115

Dec 24

HOU108@

LAC128

Feb 11

LAC95@

HOU102today

Feb 12

LAC105@

HOU102

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -9.5

Half-pt below key 10

Total

213.5

Defensive · -12.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LAC+25029%

HOU-31076%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -9.5↗SpreadBet HOU -9.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

9.5

0.0 since open

Total

213.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

HOU beat LAC 102-95. A. Sengun led with 22 PTS, 7 REB, 5 AST. Kevin Durant's play in the 3rd quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (21pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

HOU vs LAC

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LACstarters 63% of pts

Starters(5)

60 PTS · 21 REB · 11 AST

GS 47

Bench(8)

35 PTS · 24 REB · 13 AST

GS 31

HOUstarters 81% of pts

Starters(5)

83 PTS · 34 REB · 13 AST

GS 61

Bench(3)

19 PTS · 10 REB · 6 AST

GS 18

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

LAC2nd Quarter · 4.0 · 52-51

+7pp→ 45% WP

Tari Eason · misses 25-foot three point jumper

LAC3rd Quarter · 31.9 · 72-74

+8pp→ 32% WP

Jordan Miller · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kris Dunn assists)

LAC3rd Quarter · 2:46 · 65-70

+21pp→ 25% WP

Kevin Durant · out of bounds lost ball turnover

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
LAC	26	26	20	23	95
HOU	27	24	27	24	102

Period scoring

LAC won 1 · HOU won 3

Collins 9

Jr. 9

Leonard 7

Sengun 17

Leonard 9

Thompson 24

Mathurin 7

Lopez 15

LAC

HOU

Shooting comparison

LAC

HOU

41%

36-88

46%

36-79

27%

8-30

3PT

50%

14-28

65%

15-23

89%

16-18

Play-by-play · 466 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
LAC 95·HOU 102
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LAC 95·HOU 102
Q4·3.5
TyTy Washington Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Dalano Banton assists)
·
LAC 95·HOU 102
Q4·13.5
Kevin Durant makes free throw 2 of 2
LAC 92·HOU 102
Q4·13.5
Dorian Finney-Smith enters the game for Alperen Sengun
·
LAC 92·HOU 101
Q4·13.5
Kevin Durant makes free throw 1 of 2
LAC 92·HOU 101
Q4·13.5
Bennedict Mathurin shooting foul
LAC 92·HOU 100
Q4·36.0
Dalano Banton makes 15-foot step back jumpshot
LAC 92·HOU 100
Q4·48.5
Cam Christie defensive rebound
LAC 90·HOU 100
Q4·48.5
Amen Thompson misses free throw 2 of 2
LAC 90·HOU 100
Q4·48.5
Amen Thompson makes free throw 1 of 2
LAC 90·HOU 100
Q4·48.5
TyTy Washington Jr. personal take foul
LAC 90·HOU 99
Q4·53.6
Rockets defensive team rebound
LAC 90·HOU 99
Q4·55.2
Isaiah Jackson misses free throw 2 of 2
LAC 90·HOU 99
+0.7pp
Q4·55.2
Clippers offensive team rebound
LAC 90·HOU 99
+0.8pp
Q4·55.2
Isaiah Jackson misses free throw 1 of 2
LAC 90·HOU 99
+1pp
Q4·55.2
Alperen Sengun shooting foul
LAC 90·HOU 99
−2pp
Q4·1:02
Jabari Smith Jr. makes 3-foot layup (Alperen Sengun assists)
·
LAC 90·HOU 99
+1pp
Q4·1:14
Alperen Sengun offensive rebound
LAC 90·HOU 97
+2pp
Q4·1:15
Kevin Durant misses 6-foot fade away jump shot
LAC 90·HOU 97
−3pp
Q4·1:39
Isaiah Jackson makes free throw 1 of 1
LAC 90·HOU 97
+2pp
Q4·1:39
Alperen Sengun shooting foul
LAC 89·HOU 97
−3pp
Q4·1:39
Isaiah Jackson makes layup (TyTy Washington Jr. assists)
·
LAC 89·HOU 97
−0.6pp
Q4·1:50
Reed Sheppard makes 24-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)
·
LAC 87·HOU 97
+3pp
Q4·2:08
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
LAC 87·HOU 94
+0.6pp
Q4·2:09
TyTy Washington Jr. misses driving floating jump shot
LAC 87·HOU 94
+2pp
Q4·2:14
TyTy Washington Jr. offensive rebound
LAC 87·HOU 94
−2pp
Q4·2:15
Bennedict Mathurin misses 19-foot pullup jump shot
LAC 87·HOU 94
+2pp
Q4·2:31
Alperen Sengun out of bounds bad pass turnover
LAC 87·HOU 94
−2pp
Q4·2:41
Reed Sheppard offensive rebound
LAC 87·HOU 94
+2pp

Betting line

HOU -9.5·O/U 213.5·LAC +250/HOU -310

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ouston Rockets held off LA Clippers, 102–95.

LAC +9.5 cashed (HOU won by 7). Total stayed UNDER 213.5 by 16.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Reed SheppardHOU · G
DEFL599+
Tari EasonHOU · F
DEFL4.599+
Kawhi LeonardTOR · F
USG%33.399
Yanic Konan NiederhauserLAC · C
TS%69.198
Amen ThompsonHOU · G
TOUCHES86.298

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · LAC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

HOU vs LAC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 145 high confidence

Points

Kevin DurantHOU
25.3± 4.5high
Amen ThompsonHOU
20.2± 7.7high
Alperen SengunHOU
19.1± 6.9high

Rebounds

Alperen SengunHOU
9.4± 3.5high
Steven AdamsHOU
8.6± 2.2high
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU
7.4± 2.5high

Assists

Darius GarlandLAC
6.3± 2.3high
Kevin DurantHOU
5.8± 2.2high
Amen ThompsonHOU
5.7± 2.0high

Blocks

Brook LopezLAC
1.3± 1.4high
Yanic Konan NiederhauserLAC
1.3± 1.5high
Isaiah JacksonLAC
1.2± 0.8high

Steals

Marcus SmartHOU
2.1± 1.8high
Amen ThompsonHOU
1.9± 1.3high
Tari EasonHOU
1.8± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

LAC

league avg

HOU

55.9%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.7%

48.5%

FG%

◀

47.0

47.4%

113.9

PPG

114.9

114.1

23.8

Assists / G

25.0

▶

25.1

13.6

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.3

Data via ESPN · hoopR