NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3IND

IND

14-40

137134

34-20

NBATue, Feb 10FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasNY -11.5

IND · top performer

Pascal Siakam

F · #43

20.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NY · top performer

Jalen Brunson

G · #11

30.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowIND ↔ NY

Biggest swing: 50pp · 4th Quarter · 0.2

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final / OT

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. SiakamF · #43	37	30	11-26	3-10	5-10	-7	6	4
M. PotterC · #11	29	10	3-9	2-7	2-2	+2	2	3
A. NembhardG · #2	37	24	9-16	4-8	2-2	0	4	10
A. NesmithG · #23	37	11	4-10	1-3	2-2	0	8	0
Q. JacksonG · #29	28	19	5-7	4-6	5-6	0	6	3
Bench
J. HuffC · #32	24	10	4-9	1-6	1-1	+4	2	3
T.J. McConnellG · #9	16	13	6-9	—	1-1	+3	1	3
K. BrownG · #24	19	8	3-4	1-1	1-2	+13	6	1
B. SheppardG · #26	17	10	4-5	2-3	—	+2	7	2
K. JonesG · #7	21	2	1-2	0-1	—	-2	1	1
Team		137	50-97	18-45	19-26		43	30
DNP: O. Toppin, J. Walker

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. TownsC · #32	32	22	8-17	1-6	5-6	+6	14	3
J. HartG · #3	41	15	5-8	2-3	3-4	+11	11	11
M. BridgesG · #25	43	22	9-15	2-6	2-2	-5	6	3
L. ShametG · #44	38	17	6-14	4-11	1-3	+1	2	1
J. BrunsonG · #11	42	40	15-31	4-14	6-8	+3	5	8
Bench
M. DiawaraF · #51	18	3	1-2	1-2	—	-17	2	1
A. HukportiC · #55	21	7	3-4	—	1-1	-7	5	1
J. ClarksonG · #00	13	4	2-4	0-1	—	-4	0	0
J. AlvaradoG · #5	18	4	1-5	0-3	2-3	-6	1	5
T. KolekG · #13	0	0	—	—	—	+3	0	0
Team		134	50-100	14-46	20-27		46	33
DNP: T. Jemison III, D. Jones, K. McCullar Jr.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

IND

Away

Stat

Home

50-97

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

50-100

FG %

18-45

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-46

19-26

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

20-27

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 19

NY114@

IND113

Feb 11

IND137@

NY134today

Mar 13

NY101@

IND92

Mar 17

IND110@

NY136

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NY -11.5

Between 10 and —

Total

227.5

Standard · +1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

IND+41020%

NY-55085%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NY -11.5↗SpreadBet NY -11.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

11.5

0.0 since open

Total

227.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

IND beat NY 137-134. P. Siakam paced them with 30 PTS, 6 REB, 4 AST. Karl-Anthony Towns's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (50pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

NY vs IND

Starters vs bench

production by unit

INDstarters 69% of pts

Starters(5)

94 PTS · 26 REB · 20 AST

GS 73

Bench(5)

43 PTS · 17 REB · 10 AST

GS 39

NYstarters 87% of pts

Starters(5)

116 PTS · 38 REB · 26 AST

GS 92

Bench(5)

18 PTS · 8 REB · 7 AST

GS 12

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

NY4th Quarter · 1:31 · 121-119

+21pp→ 49% WP

Aaron Nesmith · shooting foul

NY4th Quarter · 0.2 · 124-122

+28pp→ 29% WP

Aaron Nesmith · loose ball foul

NY4th Quarter · 0.2 · 124-124

+50pp→ 50% WP

Karl-Anthony Towns · makes free throw 2 of 2

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	T
IND	32	31	31	30	13	137
NY	33	36	24	31	10	134

Period scoring

IND won 2 · NY won 3

Siakam 10

Brunson 11

Potter 8

Towns 11

McConnell 8

Brunson 9

Nembhard 9

Bridges 8

Jackson 7

Brunson 5

IND

Shooting comparison

IND

52%

50-97

50%

50-100

40%

18-45

3PT

30%

14-46

73%

19-26

74%

20-27

Play-by-play · 553 plays

period

event

player

OT·0.0
End of Game
IND 137·NY 134
OT·0.0
End of the 1st Overtime
IND 137·NY 134
−0.7pp
OT·1.0
Quenton Jackson enters the game for Kobe Brown
·
IND 137·NY 134
+0.7pp
OT·1.0
Pacers defensive team rebound
IND 137·NY 134
OT·1.0
Landry Shamet misses free throw 2 of 2
IND 137·NY 134
−0.9pp
OT·1.0
Kobe Brown enters the game for Quenton Jackson
·
IND 137·NY 134
OT·1.0
Knicks offensive team rebound
IND 137·NY 134
−1pp
OT·1.0
Landry Shamet misses free throw 1 of 2
IND 137·NY 134
−1pp
OT·1.0
Aaron Nesmith personal take foul
IND 137·NY 134
−3pp
OT·3.9
Quenton Jackson makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 137·NY 134
+3pp
OT·3.9
Ariel Hukporti enters the game for Mohamed Diawara
·
IND 136·NY 134
OT·3.9
Quenton Jackson makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 136·NY 134
−0.9pp
OT·3.9
Jalen Brunson personal take foulBIG MOMENT
IND 135·NY 134
−10pp
OT·5.1
Micah Potter enters the game for Ben Sheppard
·
IND 135·NY 134
OT·5.1
Mohamed Diawara enters the game for Tyler Kolek
·
IND 135·NY 134
OT·5.1
Pacers Full timeout
IND 135·NY 134
−1pp
OT·5.6
Jalen Brunson makes 26-foot three pointer (Josh Hart assists)BIG MOMENT
·
IND 135·NY 134
+7pp
OT·10.3
Ben Sheppard enters the game for Micah Potter
·
IND 135·NY 131
OT·10.3
Jalen Brunson enters the game for Ariel Hukporti
·
IND 135·NY 131
OT·10.3
Tyler Kolek enters the game for Mohamed Diawara
·
IND 135·NY 131
OT·10.3
Knicks Full timeout
IND 135·NY 131
OT·10.3
Mohamed Diawara defensive rebound
IND 135·NY 131
OT·10.6
Pascal Siakam misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
IND 135·NY 131
+6pp
OT·10.6
Ariel Hukporti enters the game for Jalen Brunson
·
IND 135·NY 131
OT·10.6
Pacers offensive team rebound
IND 135·NY 131
+2pp
OT·10.6
Pascal Siakam misses free throw 1 of 2
IND 135·NY 131
+1pp
OT·10.6
Josh Hart personal take foul
IND 135·NY 131
−3pp
OT·12.1
Mohamed Diawara enters the game for Ariel Hukporti
·
IND 135·NY 131
OT·12.1
Pacers Full timeout
IND 135·NY 131
OT·12.1
Landry Shamet makes 25-foot three pointer
IND 135·NY 131
+3pp

Betting line

NY -11.5·O/U 227.5·IND +410/NY -550

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ndiana Pacers went into New York Knicks and beat them, 137–134 in overtime. Decided by 3.

IND +11.5 cashed (NY lost outright). Total cleared the 227.5 OVER by 43.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Jalen BrunsonNY · G
TOUCHES89.699
Josh HartNY · G
DEFL4.198
Andrew NembhardIND · G
TOUCHES87.498
Jay HuffIND · C
CONT8.796
Micah PotterIND · C
TS%67.996

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · IND favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NY vs IND.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 150 high confidence

Points

Jalen BrunsonNY
27.4± 9.6high
Pascal SiakamIND
23.8± 7.9high
OG AnunobyNY
18.6± 7.0high

Rebounds

Karl-Anthony TownsNY
10.8± 3.1high
Ivica ZubacIND
9.5± 4.1high
Josh HartNY
8.4± 3.0high

Assists

Andrew NembhardIND
8.5± 4.7high
Tyrese HaliburtonIND
8.1± 4.3high
T.J. McConnellIND
6.2± 3.1high

Blocks

Jay HuffIND
1.9± 1.9high
Jalen SlawsonIND
1.0± 1.4medium
OG AnunobyNY
1.0± 1.0high

Steals

Tyrese HaliburtonIND
1.6± 1.3high
Jalen SlawsonIND
1.5± 1.7medium
Josh HartNY
1.5± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

IND

league avg

53.3%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.9%

45.8%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.0%

112.4

PPG

114.9

▶

116.4

27.7

Assists / G

◀

25.0

27.0

13.8

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR