NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+19ORL

MIL

21-30

99118

ORL

28-24

NBAMon, Feb 9FinalSeriesORL leads series 1-0VegasORL -9.5

MIL · top performer

Kevin Porter Jr.

G · #7

20.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ORL · top performer

Anthony Black

G · #0

24.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIL ↔ ORL

Biggest swing: 17pp · 3rd Quarter · 4:41

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. KuzmaF · #18	18	3	1-3	—	1-2	-13	5	0
M. TurnerC · #3	27	13	5-9	2-6	1-5	-6	6	3
K. Porter Jr.G · #7	36	28	10-19	1-5	7-7	-21	4	7
A. GreenG · #20	32	15	4-8	4-8	3-3	-13	6	1
R. RollinsG · #13	32	14	6-16	2-6	—	-11	6	3
Bench
B. PortisF · #9	17	10	4-6	2-2	—	-12	0	0
T. AntetokounmpoF · #43	4	0	—	—	—	+2	1	1
P. NanceF · #35	10	5	2-2	1-1	—	-3	0	0
O. DiengF · #21	5	2	1-3	0-2	—	-1	1	0
J. SimsC · #00	28	5	2-4	—	1-2	-9	6	1
G. HarrisG · #11	14	0	0-2	0-2	—	-7	0	0
C. ThomasG · #24	13	4	1-5	0-1	2-2	-1	1	1
A. Jackson Jr.G · #44	4	0	—	—	—	0	1	0
Team		99	36-77	12-33	15-21		37	17
DNP: G. Trent Jr.

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. BancheroF · #5	33	11	3-10	2-4	3-4	+14	9	3
W. Carter Jr.C · #34	24	4	2-8	0-4	—	-1	8	2
D. BaneG · #3	31	25	8-11	2-5	7-7	+9	3	1
J. SuggsG · #4	27	7	3-7	1-3	—	+9	3	10
A. BlackG · #0	34	26	8-13	2-6	8-9	+13	5	2
Bench
M. WagnerF · #21	16	14	5-8	2-3	2-3	+21	2	0
J. IsaacF · #1	4	2	—	—	2-2	-5	1	1
F. WagnerF · #22	17	14	6-10	2-4	—	+7	2	5
T. da SilvaF · #23	13	3	1-5	1-4	—	+15	1	1
N. PendaF · #93	16	5	2-4	1-3	—	+1	6	2
J. CarterG · #2	4	0	0-3	0-2	—	0	1	0
J. HowardG · #13	4	2	0-1	0-1	2-2	-2	0	0
J. RichardsonG · #11	17	5	2-6	1-3	—	+14	3	0
Team		118	40-86	14-42	24-27		44	27
DNP: G. Bitadze

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

ORL

Home

36-77

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

40-86

FG %

12-33

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-42

15-21

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

24-27

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

ORL leads series 1-0

Feb 10

MIL99@

ORL118today

Feb 12

MIL116@

ORL108

Mar 9

ORL130@

MIL91

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ORL -9.5

Half-pt below key 10

Total

220.5

Standard · -5.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIL+31024%

ORL-39580%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ORL -9.5↗SpreadBet ORL -9.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

9.5

0.0 since open

Total

220.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ORL beat MIL 118-99. A. Black paced them with 26 PTS, 5 REB, 2 AST. ORL outscored the other side 36-20 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ORL vs MIL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MILstarters 74% of pts

Starters(5)

73 PTS · 27 REB · 14 AST

GS 47

Bench(8)

26 PTS · 10 REB · 3 AST

GS 19

ORLstarters 62% of pts

Starters(5)

73 PTS · 28 REB · 18 AST

GS 69

Bench(8)

45 PTS · 16 REB · 9 AST

GS 38

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

ORL3rd Quarter · 10:45 · 56-56

+7pp→ 65% WP

Paolo Banchero · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Anthony Black assists)

MIL3rd Quarter · 9:53 · 59-58

+7pp→ 35% WP

Myles Turner · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)

MIL3rd Quarter · 4:41 · 67-71

+17pp→ 21% WP

Kyle Kuzma · misses 1-foot tip shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIL	22	32	20	25	99
ORL	27	24	36	31	118

Period scoring

MIL won 1 · ORL won 3

Jr. 11

Bane 5

Rollins 7

Bane 9

Jr. 7

Banchero 8

Jr. 6

Rollins 16

MIL

ORL

Shooting comparison

MIL

ORL

47%

36-77

47%

40-86

36%

12-33

3PT

33%

14-42

71%

15-21

89%

24-27

Play-by-play · 470 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIL 99·ORL 118
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIL 99·ORL 118
Q4·8.8
Pete Nance makes 25-foot three point jumper (Thanasis Antetokounmpo assists)
·
MIL 99·ORL 118
Q4·10.3
Thanasis Antetokounmpo offensive rebound
MIL 96·ORL 118
Q4·14.6
Ousmane Dieng misses 22-foot three point jumper
MIL 96·ORL 118
Q4·22.6
Andre Jackson Jr. defensive rebound
MIL 96·ORL 118
Q4·25.6
Jett Howard misses 26-foot running jump shot
MIL 96·ORL 118
Q4·31.3
Jonathan Isaac defensive rebound
MIL 96·ORL 118
Q4·34.8
Cam Thomas misses driving floating jump shot
MIL 96·ORL 118
Q4·48.7
Noah Penda makes 26-foot three pointer (Jonathan Isaac assists)
·
MIL 96·ORL 118
Q4·1:00
Cam Thomas makes free throw 2 of 2
MIL 96·ORL 115
Q4·1:00
Cam Thomas makes free throw 1 of 2
MIL 95·ORL 115
Q4·1:00
Jett Howard shooting foul
MIL 94·ORL 115
Q4·1:06
Ousmane Dieng defensive rebound
MIL 94·ORL 115
Q4·1:10
Jevon Carter misses 23-foot three point jumper
MIL 94·ORL 115
Q4·1:17
Noah Penda defensive rebound
MIL 94·ORL 115
Q4·1:21
Cam Thomas misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
MIL 94·ORL 115
Q4·1:36
Jett Howard makes free throw 2 of 2
MIL 94·ORL 115
Q4·1:36
Jett Howard makes free throw 1 of 2
MIL 94·ORL 114
Q4·1:36
Pete Nance shooting foul
MIL 94·ORL 113
Q4·1:45
shot clock turnover
MIL 94·ORL 113
Q4·2:00
Cam Thomas vs. Jase Richardson (Ousmane Dieng gains possession)
· ·
MIL 94·ORL 113
Q4·2:11
Jonathan Isaac makes free throw 2 of 2
MIL 94·ORL 113
Q4·2:11
Jonathan Isaac makes free throw 1 of 2
MIL 94·ORL 112
Q4·2:11
(02:11) [Bucks] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Bucks] charged with a timeout
MIL 94·ORL 111
Q4·2:11
Bucks Full timeout
MIL 94·ORL 111
Q4·2:11
Thanasis Antetokounmpo shooting foul
MIL 94·ORL 111
Q4·2:25
Pete Nance makes alley oop layup (Cam Thomas assists)
·
MIL 94·ORL 111
Q4·2:38
Bucks defensive team rebound
MIL 92·ORL 111
Q4·2:39
Jevon Carter misses 13-foot pullup jump shot
MIL 92·ORL 111

Betting line

ORL -9.5·O/U 220.5·MIL +310/ORL -395

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

rlando Magic held off Milwaukee Bucks, 118–99.

ORL -9.5 cashed (won by 19). Total stayed UNDER 220.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Paolo BancheroORL · F
DRIVES18.699
Franz WagnerORL · F
DEFL4.399
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL · G
DRIVES16.799
Ryan RollinsMIL · G
DEFL4.098
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL · C
CONT9.197

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ORL vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Paolo BancheroORL
23.9± 9.4high
Ryan RollinsMIL
19.5± 7.1high
Tyler HerroMIL
19.2± 8.0high

Rebounds

Paolo BancheroORL
8.3± 2.3high
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL
7.4± 4.7high
Nikola VucevicORL
6.0± 1.6high

Assists

Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
6.9± 2.8high
Paolo BancheroORL
6.0± 2.3high
Ryan RollinsMIL
5.5± 1.9high

Blocks

Goga BitadzeORL
1.4± 1.2high
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL
1.3± 0.7high
Anthony BlackORL
0.7± 1.1high

Steals

Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
2.1± 1.4high
Jalen SuggsORL
1.8± 1.5high
Ryan RollinsMIL
1.5± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MIL

league avg

ORL

56.5%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.5%

47.7%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.9%

110.6

PPG

114.9

▶

114.2

25.8

Assists / G

25.0

26.0

14.5

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR