NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+18TOR

IND

13-40

104122

TOR

32-22

NBASun, Feb 8FinalSeriesTOR wins series 4-0VegasTOR -7.5

IND · top performer

Jay Huff

C · #32

14.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

TOR · top performer

Scottie Barnes

F · #4

27.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowIND ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 8pp · 2nd Quarter · 0.3

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. SiakamF · #43	24	18	7-15	1-3	3-4	-14	4	2
J. HuffC · #32	30	15	5-10	2-5	3-3	-9	7	2
A. NembhardG · #2	25	10	4-18	1-6	1-1	-29	3	2
A. NesmithG · #23	23	7	2-4	1-2	2-3	-15	1	1
J. FurphyG · #12	15	4	2-3	—	—	-3	2	3
Bench
J. WalkerF · #5	28	13	4-14	2-5	3-3	-13	6	2
M. PotterC · #11	26	8	3-4	2-3	—	0	8	2
T.J. McConnellG · #9	16	10	5-5	—	—	+7	3	7
B. SheppardG · #26	27	12	5-11	2-6	—	-4	5	4
K. JonesG · #7	25	7	3-5	1-3	—	-10	1	1
Team		104	40-89	12-33	12-14		40	26
DNP: O. Toppin

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. IngramF · #3	26	13	5-12	0-3	3-4	+15	5	3
R. BarrettF · #9	32	20	7-15	2-5	4-7	+31	8	5
S. BarnesF · #4	33	25	12-20	—	1-1	+22	14	6
C. Murray-BoylesF · #12	8	2	1-1	—	—	+5	0	0
I. QuickleyG · #5	28	13	5-9	3-6	—	+29	4	6
Bench
S. MamukelashviliF · #54	22	17	6-9	3-5	2-2	+2	4	1
T. Jackson-DavisF · #32	16	10	2-4	—	6-10	-3	10	1
J. BattleF · #77	7	0	0-4	0-3	—	-2	2	0
J. MogboF · #2	0	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
A.J. LawsonG · #0	2	0	—	—	—	-1	1	0
J. SheadG · #23	19	6	1-4	1-3	3-4	-12	0	4
J. WalterG · #14	27	6	2-7	2-3	—	+13	4	2
A. MartinG · #55	4	2	1-4	0-1	—	-4	1	0
G. DickG · #1	16	8	3-6	0-1	2-2	-3	1	1
Team		122	45-95	11-30	21-30		54	29
DNP: G. Temple

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

IND

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

40-89

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

45-95

FG %

12-33

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-30

12-14

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

21-30

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

TOR wins series 4-0

Nov 16

TOR129@

IND111

Nov 27

IND95@

TOR97

Jan 15

TOR115@

IND101

Feb 8

IND104@

TOR122today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

Total

226.5

Standard · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

IND+27527%

TOR-34578%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -7.5↗SpreadBet TOR -7.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

0.0 since open

Total

226.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TOR beat IND 122-104. S. Barnes paced them with 25 PTS, 14 REB, 6 AST. TOR outscored the other side 44-26 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

TOR vs IND

Starters vs bench

production by unit

INDstarters 52% of pts

Starters(5)

54 PTS · 17 REB · 10 AST

GS 34

Bench(5)

50 PTS · 23 REB · 16 AST

GS 36

TORstarters 60% of pts

Starters(5)

73 PTS · 31 REB · 20 AST

GS 66

Bench(9)

49 PTS · 23 REB · 9 AST

GS 47

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

IND2nd Quarter · 3:14 · 41-37

+7pp→ 47% WP

Jay Huff · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Aaron Nesmith assists)

TOR2nd Quarter · 1:53 · 45-42

+7pp→ 52% WP

Sandro Mamukelashvili · makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jamal Shead assists)

IND2nd Quarter · 0.3 · 48-46

+8pp→ 45% WP

Immanuel Quickley · misses driving floating jump shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
IND	20	28	26	30	104
TOR	21	25	44	32	122

Period scoring

IND won 1 · TOR won 3

Nembhard 7

Mamukelashvili 6

Siakam 6

Mamukelashvili 7

Siakam 8

Barnes 13

Huff 9

Jackson-Davis 9

IND

TOR

Shooting comparison

IND

TOR

45%

40-89

47%

45-95

36%

12-33

3PT

37%

11-30

86%

12-14

70%

21-30

Play-by-play · 505 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 104·TOR 122
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 104·TOR 122
Q4·3.0
shot clock turnover
IND 104·TOR 122
Q4·27.3
Ben Sheppard makes running layup (Jarace Walker assists)
·
IND 104·TOR 122
Q4·29.5
Jay Huff defensive rebound
IND 102·TOR 122
Q4·33.2
Alijah Martin misses driving layup
IND 102·TOR 122
Q4·53.6
Jay Huff makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 102·TOR 122
Q4·53.6
Jay Huff makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 101·TOR 122
Q4·53.6
Alijah Martin personal foul
IND 100·TOR 122
Q4·57.3
Trayce Jackson-Davis makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 100·TOR 122
Q4·57.3
Raptors offensive team rebound
IND 100·TOR 121
Q4·57.3
Trayce Jackson-Davis misses free throw 1 of 2
IND 100·TOR 121
Q4·57.3
Ben Sheppard personal foul
IND 100·TOR 121
Q4·1:04
Trayce Jackson-Davis offensive rebound
IND 100·TOR 121
Q4·1:07
Alijah Martin misses 12-foot two point shot
IND 100·TOR 121
Q4·1:17
A.J. Lawson defensive rebound
IND 100·TOR 121
Q4·1:20
Ben Sheppard misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
IND 100·TOR 121
Q4·1:31
Alijah Martin makes two point shot
IND 100·TOR 121
Q4·1:34
Jarace Walker bad pass turnover (Alijah Martin steals)
·
IND 100·TOR 119
Q4·1:38
Jay Huff defensive rebound
IND 100·TOR 119
Q4·1:39
Trayce Jackson-Davis misses tip in dunk
IND 100·TOR 119
Q4·1:39
Trayce Jackson-Davis offensive rebound
IND 100·TOR 119
Q4·1:43
Jamison Battle misses two point shot
IND 100·TOR 119
Q4·1:44
Jamison Battle offensive rebound
IND 100·TOR 119
Q4·1:47
Gradey Dick misses 23-foot three point pullup jump shot
IND 100·TOR 119
Q4·1:49
Gradey Dick offensive rebound
IND 100·TOR 119
Q4·1:51
Jamison Battle misses 23-foot running jump shot
IND 100·TOR 119
Q4·1:54
Alijah Martin defensive rebound
IND 100·TOR 119
Q4·1:58
Trayce Jackson-Davis blocks Jarace Walker 's 1-foot layup
·
IND 100·TOR 119
Q4·2:07
Ben Sheppard defensive rebound
IND 100·TOR 119

Betting line

TOR -7.5·O/U 226.5·IND +275/TOR -345

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

oronto Raptors held off Indiana Pacers, 122–104.

TOR -7.5 cashed (won by 18). Total stayed UNDER 226.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Scottie BarnesTOR · F
DRIVES16.799
RJ BarrettTOR · F
DRIVES16.498
Andrew NembhardIND · G
TOUCHES87.498
Jay HuffIND · C
CONT8.796
Micah PotterIND · C
TS%67.996

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · IND favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

IND

league avg

TOR

53.3%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

54.5%

45.8%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.1%

112.4

PPG

114.9

▶

114.3

27.7

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.2

13.8

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR