MIA
28-26
WSH
14-38
MIA · top performer
Kasparas Jakucionis
G · #25
22
Pts
3
Reb
6
Ast
WSH · top performer
Jamir Watkins
G · #5
12
Pts
7
Reb
2
Ast
Biggest swing: 13pp · 1st Quarter · 8:35
NBA · Miami Heat at Washington Wizards · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 23 | 11 | 4-11 | 3-6 | — | +1 | 10 | 2 | |
| 21 | 10 | 4-9 | 2-3 | — | 0 | 7 | 6 | |
| 28 | 22 | 9-15 | 2-6 | 2-2 | +41 | 8 | 3 | |
| 25 | 21 | 5-12 | 5-10 | 6-8 | +7 | 4 | 0 | |
| 25 | 5 | 2-6 | 1-3 | — | +16 | 2 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 19 | 12 | 4-8 | 1-3 | 3-3 | +33 | 5 | 3 | |
| 24 | 4 | 2-12 | 0-4 | — | +9 | 4 | 6 | |
| 6 | 4 | 2-3 | 0-1 | — | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| 30 | 19 | 8-13 | 1-3 | 2-2 | +22 | 14 | 1 | |
| 6 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| 8 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-1 | — | -1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 26 | 22 | 8-10 | 6-6 | — | +27 | 3 | 6 | |
| Team | 132 | 49-104 | 21-47 | 13-15 | 60 | 34 | ||
| DNP: P. Larsson | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 25 | 13 | 4-11 | 1-5 | 4-4 | -8 | 7 | 1 | |
| 19 | 13 | 4-12 | 3-6 | 2-2 | -4 | 2 | 3 | |
| 26 | 12 | 6-13 | 0-1 | 0-2 | -5 | 12 | 5 | |
| 29 | 13 | 6-13 | 1-6 | — | -9 | 2 | 5 | |
| 34 | 7 | 2-7 | 1-4 | 2-2 | -4 | 4 | 1 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 20 | 14 | 5-11 | 4-5 | — | -17 | 5 | 2 | |
| 20 | 8 | 3-5 | — | 2-3 | -28 | 1 | 3 | |
| 13 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | -21 | 1 | 1 | |
| 33 | 12 | 5-10 | 1-4 | 1-3 | -33 | 7 | 2 | |
| 21 | 9 | 4-10 | 1-4 | — | -26 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 101 | 39-93 | 12-36 | 11-16 | 42 | 23 | ||
| DNP: A. Gill, T. Johnson | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
47
FG %
42
34
Ast
23
Team stats
MIA
Away
Stat
WSH
Home
49-104
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
39-93
47
FG %
42
21-47
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
12-36
13-15
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
11-16
34
Assists
23
16
Turnovers
19
Season series
MIA leads series 1-0
MIA132@WSH101todayWSH129@MIA150WSH136@MIA152MIA140@WSH117Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
MIA -13.5
Between 10 and —
Total
235.5
High-scoring · +9.5 vs avg
Moneyline
MIA-62586%WSH+45518%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 7 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
13.5
0.0 since open
Total
235.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
MIA beat WSH 132-101. K. Jakucionis led with 22 PTS, 3 REB, 6 AST. MIA outscored the other side 37-19 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
WSH vs MIA
Starters vs bench
production by unitMIAstarters 52% of ptsStarters(5)
69 PTS · 31 REB · 14 AST
GS 64
Bench(7)
63 PTS · 29 REB · 20 AST
GS 62
WSHstarters 57% of ptsStarters(5)
58 PTS · 27 REB · 15 AST
GS 38
Bench(5)
43 PTS · 15 REB · 8 AST
GS 32
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactAndrew Wiggins · misses 1-foot tip shot
Andrew Wiggins · misses 1-foot tip shot
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 37 | 37 | 33 | 25 | 132 |
| WSH | 33 | 19 | 23 | 26 | 101 |
Period scoring
MIA won 3 · WSH won 1
Q1
Ware 7
Vukcevic 24
Q2
Adebayo 12
George 5
Q3
Powell 6
Champagnie 6
Q4
Jakucionis 8
Cooper 21
Shooting comparison
47%
49-104
FG
42%
39-93
45%
21-47
3PT
33%
12-36
87%
13-15
FT
69%
11-16
Play-by-play · 480 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIA 132·WSH 101
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIA 132·WSH 101
- Q4·19.4
Will Riley defensive rebound
MIA 132·WSH 101
- Q4·23.0
Jahmir Young misses 27-foot running jump shot
MIA 132·WSH 101
- Q4·26.9
Tristan Vukcevic bad pass turnover (Myron Gardner steals)
·
MIA 132·WSH 101
- Q4·51.1
Kasparas Jakucionis makes 28-foot running jump shot (Dru Smith assists)
·
MIA 132·WSH 101
- Q4·54.5
Tristan Vukcevic bad pass turnover (Dru Smith steals)
·
MIA 129·WSH 101
- Q4·55.9
Tristan Vukcevic defensive rebound
MIA 129·WSH 101
- Q4·58.9
Dru Smith misses 29-foot three point jumper
MIA 129·WSH 101
- Q4·1:08
Jamir Watkins makes 3-foot layup (Tristan Vukcevic assists)
·
MIA 129·WSH 101
- Q4·1:29
Kasparas Jakucionis out of bounds bad pass turnover
MIA 129·WSH 99
- Q4·1:44
Sharife Cooper makes free throw 2 of 2
MIA 129·WSH 99
- Q4·1:44
Sharife Cooper makes free throw 1 of 2
MIA 129·WSH 98
- Q4·1:44
Nikola Jovic shooting foul
MIA 129·WSH 97
- Q4·2:04
Wizards Full timeout
MIA 129·WSH 97
- Q4·2:04
Jahmir Young makes running layup (Nikola Jovic assists)
·
MIA 129·WSH 97
- Q4·2:08
Will Riley bad pass turnover (Nikola Jovic steals)
·
MIA 127·WSH 97
- Q4·2:25
Myron Gardner makes running layup (Dru Smith assists)
·
MIA 127·WSH 97
- Q4·2:29
Dru Smith defensive rebound
MIA 125·WSH 97
- Q4·2:32
Jamir Watkins misses 22-foot three point jumper
MIA 125·WSH 97
- Q4·2:58
Nikola Jovic makes two point shot (Myron Gardner assists)
·
MIA 125·WSH 97
- Q4·3:14
Tristan Vukcevic makes 27-foot three point jumper (Sharife Cooper assists)
·
MIA 123·WSH 97
- Q4·3:27
Myron Gardner makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jovic assists)
·
MIA 123·WSH 94
- Q4·3:34
Heat offensive team rebound
MIA 120·WSH 94
- Q4·3:35
Keshon Gilbert blocks Jahmir Young 's 10-foot running layup
·
MIA 120·WSH 94
- Q4·3:40
Myron Gardner defensive rebound
MIA 120·WSH 94
- Q4·3:43
Sharife Cooper misses free throw 1 of 1
MIA 120·WSH 94
- Q4·3:43
Dru Smith shooting foul
MIA 120·WSH 94
- Q4·3:43
Sharife Cooper makes driving layup
MIA 120·WSH 94
- Q4·3:53
Kasparas Jakucionis loose ball foul
MIA 120·WSH 92
Betting line
MIA -13.5·O/U 235.5·MIA -625/WSH +455
Recap · NBA
iami Heat went into Washington Wizards and beat them, 132–101. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
MIA -13.5 cashed (won by 31). Total stayed UNDER 235.5 by 2.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
Alex SarrWSH · CCONT9.498
Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIL · FDRIVES13.295
Bilal CoulibalyWSH · GDEFL3.194
Andrew WigginsMIA · FCONT7.693
Bam AdebayoMIA · CCONT6.891
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · MIA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
WSH vs MIA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
155
projections · 130 high confidence
Points
- Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA25.0± 4.5high
- Anthony DavisWSH20.5± 9.2high
- Bam AdebayoMIA18.4± 7.8high
Rebounds
- Anthony DavisWSH11.3± 4.3high
- Julian ReeseWSH10.5± 6.4low
- Bam AdebayoMIA10.3± 3.7high
Assists
- Davion MitchellMIA5.9± 2.8high
- Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA5.1± 2.6high
- Bub CarringtonWSH5.1± 1.9high
Blocks
- Anthony DavisWSH1.7± 1.5high
- Alex SarrWSH1.6± 1.4high
- Bilal CoulibalyWSH1.0± 1.1high
Steals
- Julian ReeseWSH1.4± 1.7low
- Leaky BlackWSH1.4± 1.7medium
- Dru SmithMIA1.3± 1.8high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
MIA
league avg
WSH
54.2%
Effective FG%
54.4
53.5%
46.8%
FG%
47.0
46.3%
120.9
PPG
114.9
112.9
29.0
Assists / G
25.0
25.0
13.0
Turnovers / G
14.0
15.1