MEM
20-31
POR
25-28
MEM · top performer
Javon Small
G · #10
22
Pts
6
Reb
4
Ast
POR · top performer
Donovan Clingan
C · #23
20
Pts
19
Reb
3
Ast
Biggest swing: 27pp · 3rd Quarter · 3:34
NBA · Memphis Grizzlies at Portland Trail Blazers · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 27 | 11 | 5-6 | — | 1-3 | -6 | 6 | 2 | |
| 30 | 11 | 4-10 | 2-4 | 1-2 | -5 | 8 | 2 | |
| 31 | 11 | 5-14 | 1-4 | — | -16 | 4 | 0 | |
| 20 | 13 | 4-10 | 2-5 | 3-3 | -7 | 1 | 1 | |
| 30 | 8 | 3-9 | 2-7 | — | -1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 25 | 25 | 9-13 | 7-8 | — | +1 | 5 | 0 | |
| 22 | 6 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 2-5 | -1 | 1 | 2 | |
| 28 | 22 | 7-10 | 2-4 | 6-6 | 0 | 6 | 4 | |
| 28 | 8 | 3-8 | 0-5 | 2-2 | 0 | 4 | 7 | |
| Team | 115 | 42-84 | 16-38 | 15-21 | 36 | 19 | ||
| DNP: C. Coward, J. Wells, C. Spencer | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 33 | 29 | 10-17 | 6-10 | 3-5 | +1 | 5 | 3 | |
| 34 | 8 | 3-10 | 1-5 | 1-1 | +18 | 7 | 1 | |
| 36 | 20 | 8-15 | 2-6 | 2-2 | +19 | 19 | 3 | |
| 27 | 21 | 8-13 | 4-6 | 1-2 | +8 | 2 | 4 | |
| 33 | 7 | 3-10 | 1-5 | — | +6 | 10 | 4 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 3 | 0 | — | — | — | -1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 27 | 17 | 7-18 | 3-11 | — | -3 | 0 | 8 | |
| 26 | 10 | 4-7 | 2-5 | — | +3 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 9 | 10 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 2-4 | -11 | 1 | 0 | |
| 11 | 0 | — | — | — | -5 | 0 | 3 | |
| Team | 122 | 46-95 | 21-51 | 9-14 | 48 | 30 | ||
| DNP: D. Avdija, R. Williams III, S. Henderson, S. Sharpe | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
50
FG %
48
19
Ast
30
Team stats
MEM
Away
Stat
POR
Home
42-84
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
46-95
50
FG %
48
16-38
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
21-51
15-21
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
9-14
19
Assists
30
14
Turnovers
17
Season series
POR leads series 2-1
POR96@MEM119MEM115@POR135MEM115@POR122todayPOR122@MEM114Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
POR -9.5
Half-pt below key 10
Total
228.5
Standard · +2.5 vs avg
Moneyline
MEM+27027%POR-34077%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
9.5
0.0 since open
Total
228.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
POR beat MEM 122-115. D. Clingan led with 20 PTS, 19 REB, 3 AST. POR outscored the other side 34-19 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
POR vs MEM
Starters vs bench
production by unitMEMstarters 47% of ptsStarters(5)
54 PTS · 20 REB · 6 AST
GS 38
Bench(4)
61 PTS · 16 REB · 13 AST
GS 57
PORstarters 70% of ptsStarters(5)
85 PTS · 43 REB · 15 AST
GS 71
Bench(6)
37 PTS · 5 REB · 15 AST
GS 25
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactJahmai Mashack · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Walter Clayton Jr. assists)
Vit Krejci · shooting foul
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope · bad pass turnover (Caleb Love steals)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEM | 30 | 33 | 33 | 19 | 115 |
| POR | 31 | 32 | 25 | 34 | 122 |
Period scoring
MEM won 2 · POR won 2
Q1
Small 9
Grant 7
Q2
Prosper 9
Grant 14
Q3
Jackson 8
Holiday 11
Q4
Prosper 5
Jerome 11
Shooting comparison
50%
42-84
FG
48%
46-95
42%
16-38
3PT
41%
21-51
71%
15-21
FT
64%
9-14
Play-by-play · 476 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MEM 115·POR 122
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MEM 115·POR 122
- Q4·18.0
Javon Small makes free throw 2 of 2
MEM 115·POR 122
+0.8pp
- Q4·18.0
Taylor Hendricks enters the game for Walter Clayton Jr.
·
MEM 114·POR 122
- Q4·18.0
Rayan Rupert enters the game for Toumani Camara
·
MEM 114·POR 122
- Q4·18.0
Sidy Cissoko enters the game for Vit Krejci
·
MEM 114·POR 122
- Q4·18.0
Yang Hansen enters the game for Donovan Clingan
·
MEM 114·POR 122
- Q4·18.0
Javonte Cooke enters the game for Jerami Grant
·
MEM 114·POR 122
- Q4·18.0
Blake Wesley enters the game for Jrue Holiday
·
MEM 114·POR 122
- Q4·18.0
Javon Small makes free throw 1 of 2
MEM 114·POR 122
- Q4·18.0
Toumani Camara personal foul
MEM 113·POR 122
−0.6pp
- Q4·26.7
Donovan Clingan makes free throw 2 of 2
MEM 113·POR 122
- Q4·26.7
Donovan Clingan makes free throw 1 of 2
MEM 113·POR 121
- Q4·26.7
GG Jackson personal take foul
MEM 113·POR 120
+0.5pp
- Q4·27.6
Toumani Camara defensive rebound
MEM 113·POR 120
+0.5pp
- Q4·30.3
Toumani Camara blocks Javon Small 's 4-foot running layup
·
MEM 113·POR 120
+2pp
- Q4·34.7
Javon Small defensive rebound
MEM 113·POR 120
- Q4·36.8
Jerami Grant misses free throw 2 of 2
MEM 113·POR 120
−2pp
- Q4·36.8
Trail Blazers offensive team rebound
MEM 113·POR 120
−0.5pp
- Q4·36.8
Jerami Grant misses free throw 1 of 2
MEM 113·POR 120
- Q4·36.8
Kyle Anderson shooting foul
MEM 113·POR 120
+1pp
- Q4·47.7
Jerami Grant offensive rebound
MEM 113·POR 120
+2pp
- Q4·50.6
Toumani Camara misses 26-foot three point jumper
MEM 113·POR 120
−1pp
- Q4·1:11
Toumani Camara defensive rebound
MEM 113·POR 120
+0.8pp
- Q4·1:13
GG Jackson misses two point shot
MEM 113·POR 120
+2pp
- Q4·1:18
Jerami Grant bad pass turnover (GG Jackson steals)
·
MEM 113·POR 120
−2pp
- Q4·1:28
Vit Krejci defensive rebound
MEM 113·POR 120
+0.9pp
- Q4·1:32
Jahmai Mashack misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
MEM 113·POR 120
+3pp
- Q4·1:51
Jahmai Mashack enters the game for Taylor Hendricks
·
MEM 113·POR 120
- Q4·1:51
Kyle Anderson enters the game for Olivier-Maxence Prosper
·
MEM 113·POR 120
Betting line
POR -9.5·O/U 228.5·MEM +270/POR -340
Recap · NBA
ortland Trail Blazers held off Memphis Grizzlies, 122–115.
MEM +9.5 cashed (POR won by 7). Total cleared the 228.5 OVER by 8.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 15 players in cohort
Ty JeromeMEM · GUSG%33.999
Jrue HolidayPOR · GTOUCHES84.698- Donovan ClinganPOR · CCONT7.694
Olivier-Maxence ProsperMEM · FTS%66.293
Jahmai MashackMEM · GDEFL393
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · MEM favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
POR vs MEM.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
170
projections · 135 high confidence
Points
- Deni AvdijaPOR25.3± 7.7high
- Ja MorantPOR19.6± 8.8high
- Damian LillardPOR19.2± 8.2high
Rebounds
- Zach EdeyMEM11.3± 7.8low
- Donovan ClinganPOR10.3± 2.7high
- Robert Williams IIIPOR7.4± 1.6high
Assists
- Ja MorantPOR8.1± 3.9high
- Deni AvdijaPOR6.3± 3.2high
- Jrue HolidayPOR6.3± 3.0high
Blocks
- Zach EdeyMEM1.9± 2.3low
- Donovan ClinganPOR1.5± 1.2high
- Robert Williams IIIPOR1.1± 0.9high
Steals
- Scotty Pippen Jr.MEM1.9± 2.1low
- Matisse ThybullePOR1.7± 1.8high
- Taylor HendricksMEM1.5± 2.0high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
MEM
league avg
POR
53.3%
Effective FG%
54.4
53.0%
45.6%
FG%
47.0
45.1%
114.7
PPG
114.9
114.6
27.8
Assists / G
25.0
25.0
14.6
Turnovers / G
14.0
16.2