DEN
34-19
CHI
24-29
DEN · top performer
Nikola Jokic
C · #15
22
Pts
14
Reb
17
Ast
CHI · top performer
Matas Buzelis
F · #14
21
Pts
8
Reb
3
Ast
Biggest swing: 41pp · 2nd Quarter · 4:02
NBA · Denver Nuggets at Chicago Bulls · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 27 | 14 | 6-9 | 2-3 | — | +21 | 4 | 1 | |
| 33 | 22 | 7-12 | 2-2 | 6-6 | +36 | 14 | 17 | |
| 31 | 28 | 11-18 | 4-9 | 2-2 | 0 | 3 | 11 | |
| 32 | 10 | 4-6 | — | 2-4 | +20 | 4 | 2 | |
| 33 | 19 | 7-14 | 4-8 | 1-2 | +14 | 5 | 0 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 2 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | -5 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | — | — | — | -2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 13 | 10 | 5-8 | — | 0-3 | -15 | 4 | 1 | |
| 29 | 23 | 6-11 | 3-8 | 8-12 | +9 | 3 | 1 | |
| 31 | 10 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 3-4 | +8 | 3 | 4 | |
| 8 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | -6 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 136 | 49-85 | 16-33 | 22-33 | 41 | 37 | ||
| DNP: P. Watson | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 26 | 12 | 4-13 | 4-10 | — | -5 | 2 | 0 | |
| 26 | 13 | 5-11 | 2-6 | 1-1 | -14 | 2 | 3 | |
| 30 | 21 | 7-13 | 4-8 | 3-4 | -19 | 8 | 3 | |
| 32 | 15 | 5-15 | 3-10 | 2-2 | -6 | 4 | 6 | |
| 30 | 10 | 3-7 | 2-5 | 2-2 | -27 | 6 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 20 | 8 | 3-4 | 2-3 | — | -2 | 2 | 2 | |
| 3 | 0 | — | — | — | +2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 19 | 15 | 5-8 | 1-1 | 4-5 | -13 | 7 | 0 | |
| 29 | 17 | 6-14 | 1-5 | 4-4 | -7 | 3 | 4 | |
| 22 | 9 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 2-2 | +9 | 3 | 4 | |
Olbrich | -- | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 120 | 41-92 | 20-51 | 18-20 | 37 | 25 | ||
| DNP: T. Jones | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
58
FG %
45
37
Ast
25
Team stats
DEN
Away
Stat
CHI
Home
49-85
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
41-92
58
FG %
45
16-33
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
20-51
22-33
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
18-20
37
Assists
25
13
Turnovers
16
Season series
Series tied 1-1
CHI130@DEN127DEN136@CHI120todayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
DEN -9.5
Half-pt below key 10
Total
235.5
High-scoring · +9.5 vs avg
Moneyline
DEN-34578%CHI+27527%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
9.5
0.0 since open
Total
235.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
DEN beat CHI 136-120. N. Jokic stuffed the line with 22 PTS, 14 REB, and 17 AST. DEN outscored the other side 39-16 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
CHI vs DEN
Starters vs bench
production by unitDENstarters 68% of ptsStarters(5)
93 PTS · 30 REB · 31 AST
GS 91
Bench(6)
43 PTS · 11 REB · 6 AST
GS 35
CHIstarters 59% of ptsStarters(5)
71 PTS · 22 REB · 15 AST
GS 50
Bench(6)
49 PTS · 15 REB · 10 AST
GS 40
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactAnfernee Simons · enters the game for Rob Dillingham
Julian Strawther · misses driving floating jump shot
Julian Strawther · enters the game for Christian Braun
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | 39 | 20 | 38 | 39 | 136 |
| CHI | 36 | 29 | 39 | 16 | 120 |
Period scoring
DEN won 2 · CHI won 2
Q1
Jokic 7
Buzelis 8
Q2
Jr. 11
Simons 9
Q3
Murray 15
Okoro 6
Q4
Brown 7
Strawther 62
Shooting comparison
58%
49-85
FG
45%
41-92
48%
16-33
3PT
39%
20-51
67%
22-33
FT
90%
18-20
Play-by-play · 489 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
DEN 136·CHI 120
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DEN 136·CHI 120
- Q4·15.9
shot clock turnover
DEN 136·CHI 120
- Q4·39.0
Rob Dillingham bad pass turnover (Bruce Brown steals)
·
DEN 136·CHI 120
- Q4·53.4
Julian Strawther lost ball turnover (Leonard Miller steals)
·
DEN 136·CHI 120
- Q4·53.4
Julian Strawther vs. Leonard Miller (Lachlan Olbrich gains possession)
· ·
DEN 136·CHI 120
- Q4·1:13
Rob Dillingham makes driving layup
DEN 136·CHI 120
- Q4·1:22
Zeke Nnaji enters the game for Cameron Johnson
·
DEN 136·CHI 118
- Q4·1:22
Jalen Pickett enters the game for Nikola Jokic
·
DEN 136·CHI 118
- Q4·1:22
DaRon Holmes II enters the game for Tim Hardaway Jr.
·
DEN 136·CHI 118
- Q4·1:22
Julian Strawther enters the game for Christian BraunBIG MOMENT
·
DEN 136·CHI 118
−41pp
- Q4·1:22
Nikola Jokic personal take foul
DEN 136·CHI 118
- Q4·1:23
Nikola Jokic makes 2-foot driving floating jump shot (Bruce Brown assists)
·
DEN 136·CHI 118
- Q4·1:39
Rob Dillingham makes 7-foot turnaround jump shot
DEN 134·CHI 118
- Q4·1:45
Cameron Johnson makes 12-foot driving floating jump shot (Christian Braun assists)
·
DEN 134·CHI 116
- Q4·1:49
Christian Braun offensive rebound
DEN 132·CHI 116
- Q4·1:51
Nikola Jokic misses 4-foot two point shot
DEN 132·CHI 116
- Q4·2:12
Collin Sexton makes layup (Patrick Williams assists)
·
DEN 132·CHI 116
- Q4·2:32
Leonard Miller enters the game for Isaac Okoro
·
DEN 132·CHI 114
- Q4·2:32
Lachlan Olbrich enters the game for Guerschon Yabusele
·
DEN 132·CHI 114
- Q4·2:32
Patrick Williams enters the game for Anfernee Simons
·
DEN 132·CHI 114
- Q4·2:32
Rob Dillingham enters the game for Matas Buzelis
·
DEN 132·CHI 114
- Q4·2:32
Bulls Full timeout
DEN 132·CHI 114
- Q4·2:33
Cameron Johnson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bruce Brown assists)
·
DEN 132·CHI 114
- Q4·2:45
Christian Braun defensive rebound
DEN 129·CHI 114
- Q4·2:48
Nikola Jokic blocks Isaac Okoro 's 1-foot driving layup
·
DEN 129·CHI 114
- Q4·2:55
Christian Braun makes 2-foot layup (Nikola Jokic assists)
·
DEN 129·CHI 114
- Q4·3:14
Matas Buzelis makes 5-foot driving floating jump shot
DEN 127·CHI 114
- Q4·3:23
Nikola Jokic out of bounds bad pass turnover
DEN 127·CHI 112
- Q4·3:35
shot clock turnover
DEN 127·CHI 112
Betting line
DEN -9.5·O/U 235.5·DEN -345/CHI +275
Recap · NBA
enver Nuggets went into Chicago Bulls and beat them, 136–120.
DEN -9.5 cashed (won by 16). Total cleared the 235.5 OVER by 20.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort- Nikola JokicDEN · CTOUCHES12399+
Jamal MurrayDEN · GTOUCHES82.297- Matas BuzelisCHI · FCONT7.995
Jonas ValanciunasDEN · CUSG%26.790
Leonard MillerCHI · FTS%63.387
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · DEN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CHI vs DEN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
160
projections · 135 high confidence
Points
- Nikola JokicDEN26.6± 7.0high
- Jamal MurrayDEN24.2± 8.1high
- Norman PowellCHI18.4± 5.3high
Rebounds
- Nikola JokicDEN12.5± 3.1high
- Josh GiddeyCHI8.1± 4.3high
- Nick RichardsCHI6.7± 2.5high
Assists
- Josh GiddeyCHI9.9± 4.4high
- Nikola JokicDEN9.7± 4.5high
- Jamal MurrayDEN6.4± 1.9high
Blocks
- Matas BuzelisCHI1.5± 1.4high
- Nikola JokicDEN1.0± 1.0high
- Jalen SmithCHI0.9± 1.0high
Steals
- Bruce BrownDEN1.3± 1.5high
- Nikola JokicDEN1.3± 1.7high
- Josh GiddeyCHI1.1± 1.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
DEN
league avg
CHI
57.2%
Effective FG%
54.4
54.7%
49.2%
FG%
47.0
46.9%
121.1
PPG
114.9
116.3
28.7
Assists / G
25.0
28.5
12.1
Turnovers / G
14.0
14.6