LAC
24-27
SAC
12-41
LAC · top performer
Kawhi Leonard
F · #2
31
Pts
9
Reb
7
Ast
SAC · top performer
Dylan Cardwell
C · #32
14
Pts
14
Reb
1
Ast
Biggest swing: 13pp · 4th Quarter · 11:52
NBA · LA Clippers at Sacramento Kings · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 36 | 31 | 9-19 | 1-5 | 12-12 | +19 | 9 | 7 | |
| 34 | 22 | 8-12 | 1-1 | 5-5 | 0 | 7 | 1 | |
| 27 | 13 | 5-7 | 1-2 | 2-3 | +21 | 3 | 0 | |
| 36 | 15 | 5-12 | 2-3 | 3-4 | +12 | 9 | 2 | |
| 33 | 15 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 5-7 | +21 | 1 | 5 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 16 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | — | -13 | 3 | 2 | |
| 6 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | -1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 24 | 7 | 3-4 | 0-1 | 1-1 | -10 | 3 | 2 | |
| 18 | 1 | 0-5 | 0-2 | 1-2 | -14 | 5 | 3 | |
| 9 | 5 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 2-2 | -20 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 114 | 37-71 | 9-21 | 31-36 | 40 | 22 | ||
| DNP: B. Bogdanovic, T. Washington Jr. | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 25 | 6 | 1-8 | 0-5 | 4-4 | +6 | 1 | 0 | |
| 26 | 12 | 6-8 | 0-1 | — | -5 | 5 | 2 | |
| 20 | 6 | 2-8 | 0-4 | 2-3 | -10 | 3 | 5 | |
| 20 | 5 | 1-3 | — | 3-4 | -4 | 5 | 1 | |
| 18 | 6 | 2-6 | 0-3 | 2-2 | -9 | 2 | 4 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 8 | 6 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 2-2 | +5 | 4 | 1 | |
| 31 | 14 | 7-11 | — | — | +6 | 14 | 1 | |
| 22 | 18 | 6-13 | 6-9 | — | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| 14 | 8 | 3-5 | 2-3 | — | +1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 22 | 14 | 6-14 | 0-5 | 2-3 | -7 | 4 | 4 | |
| 33 | 16 | 5-12 | 2-5 | 4-4 | +2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Team | 111 | 41-92 | 10-37 | 19-22 | 42 | 22 | ||
| DNP: D. McDermott, D. Eubanks | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
52
FG %
45
22
Ast
22
Team stats
LAC
Away
Stat
SAC
Home
37-71
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
41-92
52
FG %
45
9-21
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
10-37
31-36
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
19-22
22
Assists
22
15
Turnovers
11
Season series
LAC lead series 2-0
SAC90@LAC131LAC114@SAC111todaySAC118@LAC109LAC138@SAC109Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
LAC -3.5
Between — and 5
Total
221.5
Standard · -4.5 vs avg
Moneyline
LAC-16662%SAC+14042%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
3.5
0.0 since open
Total
221.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
LAC beat SAC 114-111. K. Leonard paced them with 31 PTS, 9 REB, 7 AST. SAC outscored the other side 27-17 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
SAC vs LAC
Starters vs bench
production by unitLACstarters 84% of ptsStarters(5)
96 PTS · 29 REB · 15 AST
GS 84
Bench(5)
18 PTS · 11 REB · 7 AST
GS 12
SACstarters 32% of ptsStarters(5)
35 PTS · 16 REB · 12 AST
GS 28
Bench(6)
76 PTS · 26 REB · 10 AST
GS 62
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactJohn Collins · shooting foul
Malik Monk · makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot
Brook Lopez · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jordan Miller assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | 17 | 31 | 31 | 35 | 114 |
| SAC | 27 | 22 | 28 | 34 | 111 |
Period scoring
LAC won 3 · SAC won 1
Q1
Leonard 8
Monk 9
Q2
Collins 8
Cardwell 6
Q3
Leonard 10
Sanders 10
Q4
Dunn 9
Clifford 9
Shooting comparison
52%
37-71
FG
45%
41-92
43%
9-21
3PT
27%
10-37
86%
31-36
FT
86%
19-22
Play-by-play · 466 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LAC 114·SAC 111
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LAC 114·SAC 111
−1pp
- Q4·1.8
Devin Carter makes 2-foot running dunk (Maxime Raynaud assists)
·
LAC 114·SAC 111
−1pp
- Q4·6.9
Maxime Raynaud defensive rebound
LAC 114·SAC 109
- Q4·7.1
Kobe Sanders misses free throw 2 of 2
LAC 114·SAC 109
+2pp
- Q4·7.1
Kobe Sanders makes free throw 1 of 2
LAC 114·SAC 109
- Q4·7.1
Daeqwon Plowden personal take foul
LAC 113·SAC 109
−2pp
- Q4·8.0
Daeqwon Plowden makes running layup
LAC 113·SAC 109
+1pp
- Q4·12.8
Maxime Raynaud defensive rebound
LAC 113·SAC 107
−0.5pp
- Q4·15.4
Kris Dunn misses free throw 2 of 2
LAC 113·SAC 107
+2pp
- Q4·15.4
Kris Dunn makes free throw 1 of 2
LAC 113·SAC 107
- Q4·15.4
Devin Carter personal foul
LAC 112·SAC 107
−2pp
- Q4·16.3
Nicolas Batum enters the game for Brook Lopez
·
LAC 112·SAC 107
- Q4·16.3
Clippers Full timeout
LAC 112·SAC 107
- Q4·16.3
Nique Clifford makes 23-foot three point jumper (Devin Carter assists)
·
LAC 112·SAC 107
+2pp
- Q4·24.7
Kris Dunn makes free throw 2 of 2
LAC 112·SAC 104
+0.6pp
- Q4·24.7
Kris Dunn makes free throw 1 of 2
LAC 111·SAC 104
- Q4·24.7
Nique Clifford personal take foul
LAC 110·SAC 104
−2pp
- Q4·35.6
John Collins defensive rebound
LAC 110·SAC 104
−0.8pp
- Q4·38.5
Nique Clifford misses running pullup jump shot
LAC 110·SAC 104
−3pp
- Q4·44.8
Kris Dunn bad pass turnover (Maxime Raynaud steals)
·
LAC 110·SAC 104
+2pp
- Q4·1:07
Devin Carter makes free throw 2 of 2
LAC 110·SAC 104
−2pp
- Q4·1:07
Kobe Sanders enters the game for Kawhi Leonard
·
LAC 110·SAC 103
- Q4·1:07
Devin Carter makes free throw 1 of 2
LAC 110·SAC 103
+0.7pp
- Q4·1:07
Brook Lopez personal foul
LAC 110·SAC 102
+3pp
- Q4·1:10
Kings offensive team rebound
LAC 110·SAC 102
+1pp
- Q4·1:10
Devin Carter misses 23-foot three point step back jumpshot
LAC 110·SAC 102
−1pp
- Q4·1:25
shot clock turnover
LAC 110·SAC 102
+0.9pp
- Q4·1:48
Nique Clifford makes 8-foot step back jumpshot
LAC 110·SAC 102
+0.6pp
- Q4·2:01
Kings Full timeout
LAC 110·SAC 100
Betting line
LAC -3.5·O/U 221.5·LAC -166/SAC +140
Recap · NBA
A Clippers went into Sacramento Kings and beat them, 114–111. Decided by 3.
SAC +3.5 cashed (LAC won by 3). Total cleared the 221.5 OVER by 3.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort- Kawhi LeonardTOR · FUSG%33.399
Yanic Konan NiederhauserLAC · CTS%69.198
Kris DunnLAC · GDEFL3.697
Brook LopezLAC · CCONT8.396
Maxime RaynaudSAC · CCONT7.593
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · LAC favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
SAC vs LAC.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
150
projections · 135 high confidence
Points
- Darius GarlandLAC19.0± 5.5high
- Brandon IngramLAC18.7± 10.3high
- DeMar DeRozanSAC18.0± 12.6high
Rebounds
- Domantas SabonisSAC10.6± 3.5high
- Maxime RaynaudSAC8.3± 2.4high
- Precious AchiuwaSAC8.2± 4.6high
Assists
- Darius GarlandLAC6.3± 2.3high
- DeMar DeRozanSAC4.8± 3.7high
- Domantas SabonisSAC4.3± 2.0high
Blocks
- Dylan CardwellSAC1.7± 1.7high
- Keegan MurraySAC1.4± 0.8high
- Brook LopezLAC1.3± 1.4high
Steals
- Kris DunnLAC1.6± 1.1high
- Killian HayesSAC1.2± 1.4high
- Darius GarlandLAC1.1± 0.9high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
LAC
league avg
SAC
55.9%
Effective FG%
54.4
52.5%
48.5%
FG%
47.0
46.7%
113.9
PPG
114.9
111.0
23.8
Assists / G
25.0
▶25.5
13.6
Turnovers / G
14.0
13.7