NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4NO

14-40

119115

MIN

32-21

NBAFri, Feb 6FinalSeriesMIN leads series 2-1VegasMIN -8.5

NO · top performer

Saddiq Bey

G · #41

25.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIN · top performer

Anthony Edwards

G · #5

29.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowNO ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 71pp · 4th Quarter · 8:35

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
H. JonesF · #2	23	2	1-4	0-3	—	0	4	5
Z. WilliamsonF · #1	32	29	11-13	—	7-9	+7	4	1
T. Murphy IIIF · #25	37	26	9-15	6-10	2-2	+9	6	5
D. QueenC · #22	33	17	6-11	4-4	1-2	-5	8	3
S. BeyG · #41	34	30	10-21	3-10	7-7	+4	9	5
Bench
K. MatkovicF · #17	7	0	—	—	—	-11	2	1
Y. MissiC · #21	15	2	1-2	—	—	+9	4	1
M. PeavyG · #14	3	0	0-1	0-1	—	0	0	0
B. McGowensG · #11	28	11	4-6	2-3	1-2	+2	1	4
J. FearsG · #0	28	2	1-7	0-3	—	+5	1	4
Team		119	43-80	15-34	18-22		39	29
DNP: K. Looney, D. Jordan, J. Poole, J. Hawkins

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. RandleF · #30	37	24	9-18	0-5	6-6	-3	8	7
J. McDanielsF · #3	22	6	2-8	0-3	2-2	+1	1	2
R. GobertC · #27	33	12	5-12	—	2-4	+3	16	2
D. DiVincenzoG · #0	26	6	2-10	2-7	—	-6	3	2
A. EdwardsG · #5	37	35	11-22	5-9	8-9	-12	5	4
Bench
J. BeringerF · #19	5	2	1-1	—	0-1	-4	2	0
N. ReidC · #11	25	7	3-9	1-5	—	+1	3	3
J. ClarkG · #22	14	0	0-2	0-1	—	+2	5	0
J. JuzangG · #9	10	3	1-2	1-2	—	+3	1	0
B. HylandG · #8	30	20	6-11	4-8	4-4	-5	3	2
Team		115	40-95	13-40	22-26		47	22
DNP: J. Ingles, E. Freeman

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

43-80

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

40-95

FG %

15-34

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-40

18-22

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

22-26

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MIN leads series 2-1

Dec 3

MIN149@

NO142

Dec 5

MIN125@

NO116

Feb 7

NO119@

MIN115today

Apr 13

NO126@

MIN132

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -8.5

Between 7 and 10

Total

237.5

High-scoring · +11.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NO+27527%

MIN-34578%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -8.5↗SpreadBet MIN -8.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

8.5

0.0 since open

Total

237.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NO beat MIN 119-115. S. Bey paced them with 30 PTS, 9 REB, 5 AST. MIN outscored the other side 38-22 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIN vs NO

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NOstarters 87% of pts

Starters(5)

104 PTS · 31 REB · 19 AST

GS 86

Bench(5)

15 PTS · 8 REB · 10 AST

GS 11

MINstarters 72% of pts

Starters(5)

83 PTS · 33 REB · 17 AST

GS 69

Bench(5)

32 PTS · 14 REB · 5 AST

GS 27

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MIN4th Quarter · 8:35 · 93-98

+71pp→ 84% WP

Zion Williamson · lost ball turnover (Naz Reid steals)

MIN4th Quarter · 1:31 · 112-110

+19pp→ 55% WP

Derik Queen · shooting foul

NO4th Quarter · 35.5 · 116-115

+22pp→ 73% WP

Rudy Gobert · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NO	34	22	33	30	119
MIN	32	38	24	21	115

Period scoring

NO won 3 · MIN won 1

Williamson 10

Edwards 12

McGowens 5

Edwards 11

III 17

Randle 6

Bey 14

Edwards 14

MIN

Shooting comparison

MIN

54%

43-80

42%

40-95

44%

15-34

3PT

33%

13-40

82%

18-22

85%

22-26

Play-by-play · 467 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NO 119·MIN 115
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NO 119·MIN 115
−0.5pp
Q4·1.4
Trey Murphy III defensive rebound
NO 119·MIN 115
−0.8pp
Q4·2.6
Anthony Edwards misses 23-foot three point jumper
NO 119·MIN 115
−2pp
Q4·3.6
Anthony Edwards offensive rebound
NO 119·MIN 115
Q4·6.5
Naz Reid misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
NO 119·MIN 115
−7pp
Q4·10.8
Naz Reid enters the game for Rudy Gobert
·
NO 119·MIN 115
Q4·10.8
Timberwolves Full timeout
NO 119·MIN 115
Q4·10.8
Saddiq Bey makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
NO 119·MIN 115
+5pp
Q4·10.8
Saddiq Bey makes free throw 1 of 2
NO 118·MIN 115
−1pp
Q4·10.8
Julius Randle personal take foulBIG MOMENT
NO 117·MIN 115
−11pp
Q4·11.8
Saddiq Bey defensive rebound
NO 117·MIN 115
−5pp
Q4·14.8
Anthony Edwards misses 15-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
NO 117·MIN 115
−12pp
Q4·20.5
Anthony Edwards offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
NO 117·MIN 115
+9pp
Q4·24.4
Anthony Edwards misses 17-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
NO 117·MIN 115
−12pp
Q4·35.5
Zion Williamson makes free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
NO 117·MIN 115
+10pp
Q4·35.5
Rudy Gobert shooting foulBIG MOMENT
NO 116·MIN 115
−22pp
Q4·35.5
Zion Williamson makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
NO 116·MIN 115
−9pp
Q4·50.7
Bones Hyland makes 25-foot three pointer (Julius Randle assists)BIG MOMENT
·
NO 114·MIN 115
+18pp
Q4·53.2
Julius Randle offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
NO 114·MIN 112
+9pp
Q4·56.0
Anthony Edwards misses 23-foot step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
NO 114·MIN 112
−10pp
Q4·1:10
Saddiq Bey makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
NO 114·MIN 112
+9pp
Q4·1:10
Yves Missi enters the game for Derik Queen
·
NO 113·MIN 112
Q4·1:10
Saddiq Bey makes free throw 1 of 2
NO 113·MIN 112
−3pp
Q4·1:10
Anthony Edwards shooting foulBIG MOMENT
NO 112·MIN 112
−17pp
Q4·1:31
Rudy Gobert makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
NO 112·MIN 112
−7pp
Q4·1:31
Rudy Gobert makes free throw 1 of 2
NO 112·MIN 111
+2pp
Q4·1:31
Derik Queen shooting foulBIG MOMENT
NO 112·MIN 110
+19pp
Q4·1:32
Herbert Jones bad pass turnover (Rudy Gobert steals)BIG MOMENT
·
NO 112·MIN 110
+10pp
Q4·1:34
Herbert Jones enters the game for Bryce McGowens
·
NO 112·MIN 110

Betting line

MIN -8.5·O/U 237.5·NO +275/MIN -345

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ew Orleans Pelicans went into Minnesota Timberwolves and beat them, 119–115. Decided by 4.

NO +8.5 cashed (MIN lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 237.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Rudy GobertMIN · C
CONT1299+
Karlo MatkovicNO · F
TS%69.698
Anthony EdwardsMIN · G
USG%31.397
Joan BeringerMIN · F
TS%68.397
Herbert JonesNO · F
DEFL3.596

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · NO favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIN vs NO.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Anthony EdwardsMIN
23.7± 9.4high
LaMelo BallMIN
22.2± 8.0high
Trey Murphy IIINO
20.0± 6.2high

Rebounds

Rudy GobertMIN
10.1± 3.9high
Derik QueenNO
8.1± 5.6high
Kevon LooneyNO
6.6± 3.6high

Assists

LaMelo BallMIN
7.3± 2.5high
Dejounte MurrayNO
6.4± 4.4low
Jeremiah FearsNO
4.2± 1.9high

Blocks

Yves MissiNO
1.8± 1.5high
Rudy GobertMIN
1.4± 1.2high
Joan BeringerMIN
1.1± 2.1high

Steals

Dejounte MurrayNO
1.6± 0.9low
Jeremiah FearsNO
1.5± 1.1high
Trey Murphy IIINO
1.4± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

MIN

52.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.1%

46.6%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.6%

115.5

PPG

114.9

▶

116.8

25.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

25.7

13.5

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR