NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+6MIL

IND

13-39

99105

MIL

21-29

NBAFri, Feb 6FinalSeriesMIL leads series 3-0VegasIND -1.5

IND · top performer

Andrew Nembhard

G · #2

17.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIL · top performer

Kevin Porter Jr.

G · #7

21.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowIND ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 15pp · 2nd Quarter · 7:09

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. SiakamF · #43	33	19	7-19	1-8	4-8	-10	6	4
J. HuffC · #32	23	5	1-4	1-4	2-2	-22	3	1
A. NembhardG · #2	37	22	6-17	3-10	7-7	-11	2	8
A. NesmithG · #23	27	12	4-9	2-6	2-2	+9	1	1
J. FurphyG · #12	31	2	1-4	0-2	—	+1	8	3
Bench
J. WalkerF · #5	30	15	6-9	1-3	2-2	+11	9	1
M. PotterC · #11	16	8	3-5	2-4	—	+2	5	1
T.J. McConnellG · #9	14	8	4-6	0-1	—	+3	2	6
B. SheppardG · #26	16	6	2-4	2-4	—	+1	1	1
K. JonesG · #7	13	2	1-2	0-1	—	-14	0	0
Team		99	35-79	12-43	17-21		37	26
DNP: O. Toppin

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. TurnerC · #3	27	9	4-10	1-5	—	+11	10	2
J. SimsC · #00	31	4	2-3	—	0-1	+9	15	4
K. Porter Jr.G · #7	34	23	10-20	0-6	3-3	+3	7	8
A. GreenG · #20	37	14	5-14	4-12	—	+9	3	2
R. RollinsG · #13	34	22	9-19	4-8	—	+6	4	4
Bench
B. PortisF · #9	26	21	9-18	3-7	—	-1	6	1
P. NanceF · #35	18	5	2-3	1-1	—	-4	1	1
G. HarrisG · #11	14	0	0-3	0-2	—	+2	1	2
G. Trent Jr.G · #5	19	7	3-5	0-2	1-2	-5	1	2
Team		105	44-95	13-43	4-6		48	26
DNP: T. Antetokounmpo, O. Dieng, A. Jackson Jr.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

IND

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

35-79

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

44-95

FG %

12-43

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-43

17-21

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

4-6

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MIL leads series 3-0

Nov 4

MIL117@

IND115

Dec 24

MIL111@

IND94

Feb 7

IND99@

MIL105today

Mar 15

IND123@

MIL134

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

IND -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

223.5

Standard · -2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

IND-12255%

MIL+10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet IND -1.5↗SpreadBet IND -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

223.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIL beat IND 105-99. K. Porter Jr. led with 23 PTS, 7 REB, 8 AST. MIL outscored the other side 31-18 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIL vs IND

Starters vs bench

production by unit

INDstarters 61% of pts

Starters(5)

60 PTS · 20 REB · 17 AST

GS 47

Bench(5)

39 PTS · 17 REB · 9 AST

GS 38

MILstarters 69% of pts

Starters(5)

72 PTS · 39 REB · 20 AST

GS 56

Bench(4)

33 PTS · 9 REB · 6 AST

GS 25

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

IND2nd Quarter · 7:09 · 36-37

+15pp→ 66% WP

Ryan Rollins · enters the game for Gary Harris

MIL2nd Quarter · 7:18 · 36-34

+8pp→ 42% WP

Andrew Nembhard · misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot

IND4th Quarter · 4:11 · 87-91

+8pp→ 21% WP

Andrew Nembhard · makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
IND	29	18	18	34	99
MIL	23	31	29	22	105

Period scoring

IND won 2 · MIL won 2

Siakam 7

Jr. 6

Nesmith 5

Jr. 9

Sheppard 6

Green 6

Nembhard 18

Jr. 10

IND

MIL

Shooting comparison

IND

MIL

44%

35-79

46%

44-95

28%

12-43

3PT

30%

13-43

81%

17-21

67%

4-6

Play-by-play · 425 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 99·MIL 105
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 99·MIL 105
Q4·2.5
Bobby Portis defensive rebound
IND 99·MIL 105
Q4·4.8
Johnny Furphy misses 26-foot three point jumper
IND 99·MIL 105
+1pp
Q4·9.7
Bobby Portis makes 1-foot layup (Gary Harris assists)
·
IND 99·MIL 105
+3pp
Q4·11.0
Gary Harris enters the game for Jericho Sims
·
IND 99·MIL 103
Q4·11.0
Bucks Full timeout
IND 99·MIL 103
Q4·11.0
Bucks Full timeout
IND 99·MIL 103
+0.6pp
Q4·13.6
Pascal Siakam makes 1-foot two point shot (Andrew Nembhard assists)
·
IND 99·MIL 103
−1pp
Q4·22.1
Ben Sheppard defensive rebound
IND 97·MIL 103
Q4·24.0
Bobby Portis misses 23-foot three point jumper
IND 97·MIL 103
−3pp
Q4·37.0
Pascal Siakam personal take foul
IND 97·MIL 103
+3pp
Q4·45.3
Pascal Siakam makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 97·MIL 103
+3pp
Q4·45.3
Pascal Siakam makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 96·MIL 103
−0.7pp
Q4·45.3
Kevin Porter Jr. shooting foul
IND 95·MIL 103
−3pp
Q4·47.7
Jarace Walker offensive rebound
IND 95·MIL 103
−1pp
Q4·48.1
Pascal Siakam misses free throw 2 of 2
IND 95·MIL 103
+1pp
Q4·48.1
Pacers Full timeout
IND 95·MIL 103
Q4·48.1
Andrew Nembhard makes technical free throw
IND 95·MIL 103
−2pp
Q4·48.1
delay techfoul
IND 94·MIL 103
Q4·48.1
Pacers offensive team rebound
IND 94·MIL 103
+0.9pp
Q4·48.1
Pascal Siakam misses free throw 1 of 2
IND 94·MIL 103
+1pp
Q4·48.1
Bobby Portis shooting foul
IND 94·MIL 103
−2pp
Q4·52.5
Jarace Walker defensive rebound
IND 94·MIL 103
Q4·54.7
Kevin Porter Jr. misses 19-foot pullup jump shot
IND 94·MIL 103
Q4·1:11
Andrew Nembhard makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 94·MIL 103
+0.7pp
Q4·1:11
Andrew Nembhard makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 93·MIL 103
Q4·1:11
Ryan Rollins personal foul
IND 92·MIL 103
Q4·1:19
Ryan Rollins personal foul
IND 92·MIL 103
−1pp
Q4·1:21
Ryan Rollins makes 27-foot three point jumper (Bobby Portis assists)
·
IND 92·MIL 103
+0.9pp

Betting line

IND -1.5·O/U 223.5·IND -122/MIL +102

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ilwaukee Bucks held off Indiana Pacers, 105–99.

MIL +1.5 cashed (IND lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 223.5 by 19.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jericho SimsMIL · C
TS%77.299+
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL · G
DRIVES16.799
Andrew NembhardIND · G
TOUCHES87.498
Ryan RollinsMIL · G
DEFL4.098
Jay HuffIND · C
CONT8.796

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · IND favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIL vs IND.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 145 high confidence

Points

Pascal SiakamIND
23.8± 7.9high
Ryan RollinsMIL
19.5± 7.1high
Tyler HerroMIL
19.2± 8.0high

Rebounds

Micah PotterIND
6.1± 4.5high
Pascal SiakamIND
6.1± 2.4high
Kelly Oubre Jr.IND
5.5± 1.6high

Assists

Andrew NembhardIND
8.5± 4.7high
Tyrese HaliburtonIND
8.1± 4.3high
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
6.9± 2.8high

Blocks

Jay HuffIND
1.9± 1.9high
Jalen SlawsonIND
1.0± 1.4medium
Tyrese HaliburtonIND
0.6± 0.7high

Steals

Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
2.1± 1.4high
Tyrese HaliburtonIND
1.6± 1.3high
Jalen SlawsonIND
1.5± 1.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

IND

league avg

MIL

53.3%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

56.5%

45.8%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.7%

112.4

PPG

◀

114.9

110.6

27.7

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.8

13.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.5

Data via ESPN · hoopR