NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2BOS

MIA

27-26

9698

BOS

34-18

NBAFri, Feb 6FinalSeriesBOS leads series 3-0VegasBOS -5.5

MIA · top performer

Norman Powell

G · #24

21.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

BOS · top performer

Derrick White

G · #9

17.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIA ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 19pp · 4th Quarter · 1:31

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. WigginsF · #22	38	26	10-16	5-7	1-2	+5	6	0
B. AdebayoC · #13	35	16	5-13	2-6	4-6	+8	7	1
N. PowellG · #24	35	24	9-15	3-7	3-3	+1	3	4
D. MitchellG · #45	30	13	5-11	2-6	1-2	+5	2	6
P. LarssonG · #9	12	0	—	—	—	+15	5	3
Bench
S. FontecchioF · #0	19	2	0-5	0-3	2-2	-8	2	0
M. GardnerF · #15	6	0	0-1	0-1	—	-7	1	0
J. Jaquez Jr.F · #11	31	11	4-9	1-3	2-3	-6	7	7
N. JovicF · #5	6	0	0-5	0-4	—	-14	0	1
K. WareC · #7	10	2	1-5	0-2	—	-2	5	0
D. SmithG · #12	19	2	1-4	0-1	—	-7	4	1
Team		96	35-84	13-40	13-18		42	23
DNP: K. Johnson, K. Jakucionis

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
S. HauserF · #30	35	2	1-7	0-6	—	+3	3	2
L. GarzaC · #52	10	2	1-1	—	—	-7	3	0
N. QuetaC · #88	22	2	1-2	—	—	-6	11	1
D. WhiteG · #9	41	21	6-20	4-12	5-5	+6	3	5
J. BrownG · #7	33	29	11-25	1-7	6-10	-16	7	2
Bench
N. VucevicC · #4	28	11	4-8	0-1	3-4	+11	12	4
P. PritchardG · #11	36	24	8-15	4-6	4-4	+4	1	1
B. ScheiermanG · #55	19	5	2-4	1-3	—	+17	7	2
H. GonzalezG · #28	16	2	1-2	0-1	—	-2	3	0
Team		98	35-84	10-36	18-23		50	17
DNP: A. Williams, R. Harper Jr., J. Walsh

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

35-84

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

35-84

FG %

13-40

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-36

13-18

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

18-23

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

BOS leads series 3-0

Dec 20

MIA116@

BOS129

Jan 16

BOS119@

MIA114

Feb 7

MIA96@

BOS98today

Apr 1

BOS147@

MIA129

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

227.5

Standard · +1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIA+18535%

BOS-22569%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -5.5↗SpreadBet BOS -5.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

227.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BOS beat MIA 98-96. D. White led with 21 PTS, 3 REB, 5 AST. BOS outscored the other side 36-15 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

BOS vs MIA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MIAstarters 82% of pts

Starters(5)

79 PTS · 23 REB · 14 AST

GS 63

Bench(6)

17 PTS · 19 REB · 9 AST

GS 11

BOSstarters 57% of pts

Starters(5)

56 PTS · 27 REB · 10 AST

GS 35

Bench(4)

42 PTS · 23 REB · 7 AST

GS 40

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MIA4th Quarter · 3:58 · 94-91

+16pp→ 63% WP

Andrew Wiggins · makes 30-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)

BOS4th Quarter · 1:31 · 96-98

+19pp→ 70% WP

Derrick White · makes 23-foot three pointer (Nikola Vucevic assists)

BOS4th Quarter · 2.7 · 96-98

+17pp→ 95% WP

Davion Mitchell · misses 23-foot three point jumper

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIA	29	30	15	22	96
BOS	15	23	36	24	98

Period scoring

MIA won 2 · BOS won 2

Adebayo 10

Scheierman 5

Wiggins 12

Brown 15

Mitchell 5

Pritchard 9

Wiggins 8

Pritchard 10

MIA

BOS

Shooting comparison

MIA

BOS

42%

35-84

42%

35-84

33%

13-40

3PT

28%

10-36

72%

13-18

78%

18-23

Play-by-play · 468 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIA 96·BOS 98
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIA 96·BOS 98
+1pp
Q4·0.7
Dru Smith enters the game for Simone Fontecchio
·
MIA 96·BOS 98
Q4·0.7
Payton Pritchard enters the game for Baylor Scheierman
·
MIA 96·BOS 98
Q4·0.7
Celtics Full timeout
MIA 96·BOS 98
Q4·0.7
Celtics defensive team rebound
MIA 96·BOS 98
+4pp
Q4·2.7
Davion Mitchell misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
MIA 96·BOS 98
+17pp
Q4·8.0
Simone Fontecchio enters the game for Jaime Jaquez Jr.
·
MIA 96·BOS 98
Q4·8.0
Heat Full timeout
MIA 96·BOS 98
Q4·8.0
Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound
MIA 96·BOS 98
+2pp
Q4·10.7
Derrick White misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
MIA 96·BOS 98
−7pp
Q4·30.8
Baylor Scheierman defensive rebound
MIA 96·BOS 98
+2pp
Q4·32.1
Derrick White blocks Davion Mitchell 's 5-foot driving layup
·
MIA 96·BOS 98
−2pp
Q4·40.9
Neemias Queta enters the game for Nikola Vucevic
·
MIA 96·BOS 98
Q4·40.9
Baylor Scheierman enters the game for Payton Pritchard
·
MIA 96·BOS 98
Q4·40.9
Heat Full timeout
MIA 96·BOS 98
Q4·40.9
(00:40.9) [Celtics] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Celtics] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
MIA 96·BOS 98
+9pp
Q4·40.9
Celtics Full timeout
MIA 96·BOS 98
Q4·40.9
Jaylen Brown offensive foul turnover
MIA 96·BOS 98
Q4·40.9
Jaylen Brown offensive foulBIG MOMENT
MIA 96·BOS 98
−8pp
Q4·59.3
Jaylen Brown defensive rebound
MIA 96·BOS 98
+2pp
Q4·1:00
Norman Powell misses 30-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
MIA 96·BOS 98
+7pp
Q4·1:04
Jaylen Brown bad pass turnover (Andrew Wiggins steals)BIG MOMENT
·
MIA 96·BOS 98
−8pp
Q4·1:19
Norman Powell bad pass turnover (Nikola Vucevic steals)BIG MOMENT
·
MIA 96·BOS 98
+10pp
Q4·1:31
Derrick White makes 23-foot three pointer (Nikola Vucevic assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIA 96·BOS 98
+19pp
Q4·1:47
Nikola Vucevic enters the game for Neemias Queta
·
MIA 96·BOS 95
Q4·1:47
Bam Adebayo vs. Jaylen Brown (Payton Pritchard gains possession)
· ·
MIA 96·BOS 95
Q4·1:55
Neemias Queta defensive rebound
MIA 96·BOS 95
+3pp
Q4·1:56
Bam Adebayo misses 5-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
MIA 96·BOS 95
+7pp
Q4·2:16
Jaylen Brown makes 7-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
MIA 96·BOS 95
+8pp

Betting line

BOS -5.5·O/U 227.5·MIA +185/BOS -225

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

oston Celtics held off Miami Heat, 98–96. Decided by 2.

MIA +5.5 cashed (BOS won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 227.5 by 33.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Neemias QuetaBOS · C
CONT9.197
Luka GarzaBOS · C
TS%68.296
Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIL · F
DRIVES13.295
Andrew WigginsMIA · F
CONT7.693
Bam AdebayoMIA · C
CONT6.891

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MIA

league avg

BOS

54.2%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.1%

46.8%

FG%

47.0

46.5%

120.9

PPG

◀

114.9

114.2

29.0

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.6

13.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

11.5

Data via ESPN · hoopR