NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+36OKC

ORL

25-24

92128

OKC

40-11

NBATue, Feb 3FinalSeriesOKC leads series 1-0VegasOKC -11.5

ORL · top performer

Jalen Suggs

G · #4

17.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

OKC · top performer

Luguentz Dort

G · #5

18.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowORL ↔ OKC

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. BancheroF · #5	33	17	6-17	1-4	4-4	-29	3	4
W. Carter Jr.C · #34	23	9	3-7	1-3	2-2	-13	7	2
D. BaneG · #3	22	7	3-7	1-3	—	-11	2	2
J. SuggsG · #4	25	20	7-11	4-8	2-2	-4	3	6
A. BlackG · #0	28	10	5-16	0-6	—	-21	6	3
Bench
M. WagnerF · #21	13	8	2-3	2-2	2-2	-24	5	0
J. IsaacF · #1	14	0	0-2	—	—	-6	2	0
T. da SilvaF · #23	26	3	1-7	1-4	—	-21	2	2
N. PendaF · #93	24	11	4-11	2-7	1-1	-23	5	2
T. JonesG · #2	5	0	0-1	0-1	—	-10	0	0
J. HowardG · #13	14	7	3-4	1-1	—	-5	2	0
J. RichardsonG · #11	13	0	0-3	0-2	—	-13	1	0
Team		92	34-89	13-41	11-11		38	21
DNP: G. Bitadze

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
I. HartensteinC · #55	23	12	4-6	0-1	4-5	+24	10	10
C. HolmgrenC · #7	27	16	7-12	0-4	2-4	+21	10	1
S. Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #2	28	20	8-22	1-3	3-4	+23	5	9
L. DortG · #5	31	18	6-8	4-5	2-2	+25	5	1
C. WallaceG · #22	23	5	2-7	0-3	1-1	+24	1	5
Bench
Jay. WilliamsF · #6	17	5	2-5	0-2	1-3	+8	9	2
O. DiengF · #13	6	2	1-4	0-2	—	-1	1	1
A. CarusoG · #9	19	6	2-4	0-2	2-2	+13	0	3
K. WilliamsG · #34	18	11	4-5	1-1	2-2	+11	7	1
I. JoeG · #11	23	22	8-12	5-8	1-1	+16	0	0
A. WigginsG · #21	19	9	3-4	1-2	2-2	+17	3	0
C. YoungbloodG · #3	6	2	1-4	0-2	—	-1	1	0
Team		128	48-93	12-35	20-26		52	33

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

ORL

Away

Stat

OKC

Home

34-89

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

48-93

FG %

13-41

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-35

11-11

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

20-26

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

OKC leads series 1-0

Feb 4

ORL92@

OKC128today

Mar 17

OKC113@

ORL108

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OKC -11.5

Between 10 and —

Total

222.5

Standard · -3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ORL+39020%

OKC-52084%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OKC -11.5↗SpreadBet OKC -11.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

11.5

0.0 since open

Total

222.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OKC beat ORL 128-92. L. Dort led with 18 PTS, 5 REB, 1 AST. OKC outscored the other side 39-14 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

OKC vs ORL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ORLstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

63 PTS · 21 REB · 17 AST

GS 43

Bench(7)

29 PTS · 17 REB · 4 AST

GS 14

OKCstarters 55% of pts

Starters(5)

71 PTS · 31 REB · 26 AST

GS 73

Bench(7)

57 PTS · 21 REB · 7 AST

GS 48

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
ORL	14	27	27	24	92
OKC	39	29	26	34	128

Period scoring

ORL won 1 · OKC won 3

Suggs 6

Gilgeous-Alexander 10

Banchero 9

Joe 11

Suggs 8

Gilgeous-Alexander 8

Penda 8

Joe 11

ORL

OKC

Shooting comparison

ORL

OKC

38%

34-89

52%

48-93

32%

13-41

3PT

34%

12-35

100%

11-11

77%

20-26

Play-by-play · 472 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
ORL 92·OKC 128
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ORL 92·OKC 128
Q4·3.6
shot clock turnover
ORL 92·OKC 128
Q4·28.0
Jett Howard makes 12-foot pullup jump shot
ORL 92·OKC 128
Q4·35.8
Jett Howard defensive rebound
ORL 90·OKC 128
Q4·38.9
Ousmane Dieng misses 25-foot three point jumper
ORL 90·OKC 128
Q4·39.9
Kenrich Williams offensive rebound
·
ORL 90·OKC 128
Q4·43.0
Chris Youngblood misses 25-foot three point jumper
ORL 90·OKC 128
Q4·53.7
Noah Penda makes free throw 1 of 1
ORL 90·OKC 128
Q4·53.7
Aaron Wiggins shooting foul
ORL 89·OKC 128
Q4·53.7
Noah Penda makes 5-foot two point shot
ORL 89·OKC 128
Q4·1:01
Isaiah Joe makes 23-foot running jump shot (Ousmane Dieng assists)
·
ORL 87·OKC 128
Q4·1:06
Jett Howard bad pass turnover (Chris Youngblood steals)
·
ORL 87·OKC 125
Q4·1:15
Ousmane Dieng out of bounds lost ball turnover
ORL 87·OKC 125
Q4·1:20
Noah Penda makes 12-foot pullup jump shot
ORL 87·OKC 125
Q4·1:33
Chris Youngblood steps out of bounds turnover
ORL 85·OKC 125
Q4·1:39
Kenrich Williams defensive rebound
·
ORL 85·OKC 125
Q4·1:42
Tristan da Silva misses 24-foot three point jumper
ORL 85·OKC 125
Q4·2:04
Aaron Wiggins makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot
ORL 85·OKC 125
Q4·2:20
Kenrich Williams defensive rebound
·
ORL 85·OKC 123
Q4·2:24
Noah Penda misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
ORL 85·OKC 123
Q4·2:45
Chris Youngblood makes two point shot
ORL 85·OKC 123
Q4·2:45
Chris Youngblood offensive rebound
ORL 85·OKC 121
Q4·2:48
Jonathan Isaac blocks Chris Youngblood 's 5-foot driving floating jump shot
·
ORL 85·OKC 121
Q4·3:02
shot clock turnover
ORL 85·OKC 121
Q4·3:16
Kenrich Williams loose ball foul
·
ORL 85·OKC 121
Q4·3:16
Magic offensive team rebound
ORL 85·OKC 121
Q4·3:18
Noah Penda misses 25-foot three point jumper
ORL 85·OKC 121
Q4·3:39
Ousmane Dieng makes 1-foot running dunk (Kenrich Williams assists)
· ·
ORL 85·OKC 121
Q4·3:44
Noah Penda bad pass turnover (Kenrich Williams steals)
· ·
ORL 85·OKC 119

Betting line

OKC -11.5·O/U 222.5·ORL +390/OKC -520

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

klahoma City Thunder held off Orlando Magic, 128–92. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

OKC -11.5 cashed (won by 36). Total stayed UNDER 222.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Cason WallaceOKC · G
DEFL599+
Chet HolmgrenOKC · C
CONT10.799+
Paolo BancheroORL · F
DRIVES18.699
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC · G
DRIVES18.399
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL · C
CONT9.197

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · ORL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

OKC vs ORL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

145

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
27.7± 6.8high
Paolo BancheroORL
23.9± 9.4high
Desmond BaneORL
18.8± 7.4high

Rebounds

Isaiah HartensteinOKC
8.6± 3.9high
Paolo BancheroORL
8.3± 2.3high
Chet HolmgrenOKC
8.0± 3.0high

Assists

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
7.6± 3.1high
Paolo BancheroORL
6.0± 2.3high
Jalen WilliamsOKC
4.8± 2.9high

Blocks

Chet HolmgrenOKC
1.4± 0.9high
Goga BitadzeORL
1.4± 1.2high
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL
1.3± 0.7high

Steals

Cason WallaceOKC
2.0± 1.0high
Jalen SuggsORL
1.8± 1.5high
Alex CarusoOKC
1.5± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

ORL

league avg

OKC

52.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.9%

45.9%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.2%

114.2

PPG

114.9

▶

118.5

26.0

Assists / G

25.0

25.8

13.7

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

11.9

Data via ESPN · hoopR