NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+12ATL

ATL

25-27

127115

MIA

27-25

NBATue, Feb 3FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasMIA -1.5

ATL · top performer

Jalen Johnson

F · #1

26.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIA · top performer

Jaime Jaquez Jr.

F · #11

14.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowATL ↔ MIA

Biggest swing: 8pp · 1st Quarter · 7:45

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. JohnsonF · #1	36	29	12-20	3-7	2-4	+8	11	11
Z. RisacherF · #10	23	7	3-7	1-4	0-2	-8	7	2
C. KolokoC · #35	11	2	0-3	0-1	2-2	-1	2	0
N. Alexander-WalkerG · #7	31	19	8-21	3-12	—	+1	5	7
D. DanielsG · #5	22	2	1-4	—	—	0	1	5
Bench
C. KispertF · #24	28	13	5-13	2-7	1-1	+18	4	4
M. GueyeF · #18	22	6	2-4	1-2	1-2	+5	6	2
A. NewellF · #14	17	8	3-4	0-1	2-2	+5	2	0
C. McCollumG · #3	26	26	10-18	6-9	—	+13	4	2
L. KennardG · #4	23	12	4-6	4-6	—	+22	5	1
K. WallaceG · #2	1	3	1-1	1-1	—	-3	0	0
Team		127	49-101	21-50	8-13		47	34
DNP: O. Okongwu

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
S. FontecchioF · #0	34	18	7-15	2-8	2-2	+7	6	2
M. GardnerF · #15	22	14	5-8	2-3	2-2	+8	6	0
B. AdebayoC · #13	30	16	4-16	0-3	8-8	0	14	1
D. MitchellG · #45	28	4	2-5	0-1	—	-1	1	10
P. LarssonG · #9	36	18	7-12	0-3	4-4	-12	4	5
Bench
K. JohnsonF · #16	1	0	—	—	—	+3	0	0
J. Jaquez Jr.F · #11	28	21	9-17	1-3	2-3	-24	8	3
N. JovicF · #5	8	5	1-3	1-3	2-2	-2	2	0
K. WareC · #7	18	9	4-10	1-3	0-2	-12	8	0
D. SmithG · #12	19	2	1-5	0-2	—	-14	1	2
J. YoungG · #17	1	3	1-1	—	1-1	+3	0	0
K. JakucionisG · #25	16	5	1-4	1-3	2-2	-16	3	2
Team		115	42-96	8-32	23-26		53	25
DNP: A. Wiggins, N. Powell, T. Herro

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

49-101

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

42-96

FG %

21-50

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

8-32

8-13

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

23-26

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 27

MIA126@

ATL111

Feb 4

ATL127@

MIA115today

Feb 21

MIA128@

ATL97

Apr 12

ATL117@

MIA143

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIA -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

235.5

High-scoring · +9.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ATL-10250%

MIA-11854%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIA -1.5↗SpreadBet MIA -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

235.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ATL beat MIA 127-115. J. Johnson stuffed the line with 29 PTS, 11 REB, and 11 AST. ATL outscored the other side 33-23 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIA vs ATL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ATLstarters 46% of pts

Starters(5)

59 PTS · 26 REB · 25 AST

GS 48

Bench(6)

68 PTS · 21 REB · 9 AST

GS 58

MIAstarters 61% of pts

Starters(5)

70 PTS · 31 REB · 18 AST

GS 58

Bench(7)

45 PTS · 22 REB · 7 AST

GS 34

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MIA1st Quarter · 7:45 · 11-11

+8pp→ 52% WP

Zaccharie Risacher · lost ball turnover (Bam Adebayo steals)

ATL2nd Quarter · 11:55 · 36-23

+6pp→ 82% WP

Luke Kennard · makes 23-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
ATL	33	34	31	29	127
MIA	23	27	31	34	115

Period scoring

ATL won 2 · MIA won 1

McCollum 8

Larsson 8

Kennard 9

Jr. 9

McCollum 12

Gardner 19

Alexander-Walker 8

Jr. 10

ATL

MIA

Shooting comparison

ATL

MIA

49%

49-101

44%

42-96

42%

21-50

3PT

25%

8-32

62%

8-13

88%

23-26

Play-by-play · 494 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 127·MIA 115
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ATL 127·MIA 115
Q4·19.1
Kel'el Ware makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Kasparas Jakucionis assists)
·
ATL 127·MIA 115
Q4·27.2
Keaton Wallace makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Zaccharie Risacher assists)
·
ATL 127·MIA 112
Q4·45.8
Jahmir Young makes free throw 1 of 1
ATL 124·MIA 112
Q4·45.8
Keaton Wallace shooting foul
ATL 124·MIA 111
Q4·45.8
Jahmir Young makes 6-foot turnaround jump shot (Kasparas Jakucionis assists)
·
ATL 124·MIA 111
Q4·58.8
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
ATL 124·MIA 109
Q4·1:01
Corey Kispert misses 25-foot three point jumper
ATL 124·MIA 109
Q4·1:23
Keaton Wallace enters the game for CJ McCollum
·
ATL 124·MIA 109
Q4·1:23
Zaccharie Risacher enters the game for Nickeil Alexander-Walker
·
ATL 124·MIA 109
Q4·1:23
Asa Newell enters the game for Jalen Johnson
· ·
ATL 124·MIA 109
Q4·1:23
Kasparas Jakucionis enters the game for Dru Smith
·
ATL 124·MIA 109
Q4·1:23
Myron Gardner enters the game for Jaime Jaquez Jr.
·
ATL 124·MIA 109
Q4·1:23
Keshad Johnson enters the game for Pelle Larsson
· ·
ATL 124·MIA 109
Q4·1:23
Jahmir Young enters the game for Simone Fontecchio
·
ATL 124·MIA 109
Q4·1:23
Pelle Larsson out of bounds bad pass turnover
ATL 124·MIA 109
Q4·1:26
Jaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound
ATL 124·MIA 109
Q4·1:28
Mouhamed Gueye misses 22-foot three point pullup jump shot
ATL 124·MIA 109
Q4·1:30
Mouhamed Gueye offensive rebound
ATL 124·MIA 109
Q4·1:35
Jalen Johnson misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
·
ATL 124·MIA 109
Q4·1:51
Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 10-foot two point shot
ATL 124·MIA 109
Q4·2:07
Jalen Johnson makes 11-foot two point shot
·
ATL 124·MIA 107
Q4·2:20
Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 9-foot floating jump shot
ATL 122·MIA 107
Q4·2:26
CJ McCollum lost ball turnover (Kel'el Ware steals)
·
ATL 122·MIA 105
Q4·2:26
Mouhamed Gueye vs. Kel'el Ware (Jaime Jaquez Jr. gains possession)
· ·
ATL 122·MIA 105
Q4·2:46
Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 7-foot turnaround jump shot
ATL 122·MIA 105
Q4·2:54
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
ATL 122·MIA 103
Q4·2:55
Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses tip shot
ATL 122·MIA 103
Q4·3:00
Nickeil Alexander-Walker offensive rebound
ATL 122·MIA 103

Betting line

MIA -1.5·O/U 235.5·ATL -102/MIA -118

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

tlanta Hawks went into Miami Heat and beat them, 127–115.

ATL +1.5 cashed (MIA lost outright). Total cleared the 235.5 OVER by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Dyson DanielsATL · G
DEFL4.299
Jalen JohnsonATL · F
TOUCHES79.397
Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIL · F
DRIVES13.295
Bam AdebayoMIA · C
CONT6.891
Davion MitchellMIA · G
TOUCHES65.289

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

ATL

league avg

MIA

55.1%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

54.2%

47.2%

FG%

47.0

46.8%

117.2

PPG

114.9

▶

120.9

29.6

Assists / G

◀

25.0

29.0

13.4

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR