NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4HOU

HOU

31-17

118114

IND

13-37

NBAMon, Feb 2FinalSeriesHOU wins series 2-0VegasHOU -6.5

HOU · top performer

Alperen Sengun

C · #28

30.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

IND · top performer

Bennedict Mathurin

G · #00

21.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowHOU ↔ IND

Biggest swing: 19pp · 3rd Quarter · 2:11

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. Smith Jr.F · #10	35	19	6-12	3-6	4-4	+3	4	1
T. EasonF · #17	34	9	3-7	1-2	2-2	-2	10	0
A. SengunC · #28	35	39	13-25	0-2	13-18	+4	16	5
A. ThompsonG · #1	39	16	6-15	—	4-5	+13	11	7
R. SheppardG · #15	25	11	4-13	1-7	2-2	+2	2	5
Bench
D. Finney-SmithF · #2	17	4	1-2	0-1	2-2	-8	3	0
J. TateF · #8	14	8	4-4	—	—	+17	3	0
C. CapelaC · #30	11	4	1-5	—	2-2	-4	7	3
A. HolidayG · #0	17	8	2-4	2-4	2-2	+8	0	0
J. OkogieG · #20	12	0	—	—	—	-13	0	0
Team		118	40-87	7-22	31-37		56	21
DNP: J. Green, I. Crawford

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. SiakamF · #43	33	27	12-21	2-3	1-1	-8	4	5
J. HuffC · #32	12	6	2-7	2-6	—	-10	3	1
A. NembhardG · #2	32	7	2-5	1-2	2-3	-9	1	8
A. NesmithG · #23	33	17	6-13	3-7	2-3	-6	6	2
J. FurphyG · #12	14	2	1-1	—	0-1	-4	4	1
Bench
I. JacksonF · #22	25	6	2-5	—	2-3	+4	6	4
J. WalkerF · #5	23	12	5-9	2-4	—	+7	4	1
M. PotterC · #11	11	5	2-3	1-1	—	+2	1	2
T.J. McConnellG · #9	16	5	2-7	1-1	—	+5	0	2
B. SheppardG · #26	7	2	1-1	—	—	+6	0	2
B. MathurinG · #00	34	25	8-15	0-2	9-10	-7	4	5
Team		114	43-87	12-26	16-21		33	33
DNP: K. Jones

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

IND

Home

40-87

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

43-87

FG %

7-22

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-26

31-37

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

16-21

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

HOU wins series 2-0

Dec 30

IND119@

HOU126

Feb 3

HOU118@

IND114today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

Total

218.5

Defensive · -7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

HOU-25071%

IND+20533%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -6.5↗SpreadBet HOU -6.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

0.0 since open

Total

218.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

HOU beat IND 118-114. A. Sengun led the way with 39 points and 16 rebounds. HOU outscored the other side 39-28 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

IND vs HOU

Starters vs bench

production by unit

HOUstarters 80% of pts

Starters(5)

94 PTS · 43 REB · 18 AST

GS 75

Bench(5)

24 PTS · 13 REB · 3 AST

GS 24

INDstarters 52% of pts

Starters(5)

59 PTS · 18 REB · 17 AST

GS 46

Bench(6)

55 PTS · 15 REB · 16 AST

GS 52

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

HOU3rd Quarter · 8:59 · 71-61

+15pp→ 91% WP

Pascal Siakam · lost ball turnover (Jabari Smith Jr. steals)

IND3rd Quarter · 2:11 · 79-81

+19pp→ 48% WP

Clint Capela · misses 4-foot tip shot

HOU4th Quarter · 9:41 · 93-94

+11pp→ 62% WP

Alperen Sengun · makes free throw 1 of 2

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
HOU	24	39	24	31	118
IND	28	28	31	27	114

Period scoring

HOU won 2 · IND won 2

Sengun 11

Nesmith 8

Sengun 10

Mathurin 7

Sengun 10

Jackson 15

Sengun 8

Mathurin 12

HOU

IND

Shooting comparison

HOU

IND

46%

40-87

49%

43-87

32%

7-22

3PT

46%

12-26

84%

31-37

76%

16-21

Play-by-play · 499 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
HOU 118·IND 114
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
HOU 118·IND 114
−1pp
Q4·2.9
Amen Thompson defensive rebound
HOU 118·IND 114
Q4·2.9
Jay Huff misses 30-foot three point jumper
HOU 118·IND 114
−2pp
Q4·3.8
Dorian Finney-Smith enters the game for Alperen Sengun
·
HOU 118·IND 114
Q4·3.8
Andrew Nembhard enters the game for Isaiah Jackson
·
HOU 118·IND 114
Q4·3.8
Pacers Full timeout
HOU 118·IND 114
Q4·3.8
Amen Thompson makes free throw 2 of 2
HOU 118·IND 114
+0.6pp
Q4·3.8
Jay Huff enters the game for Andrew Nembhard
·
HOU 117·IND 114
Q4·3.8
Rockets offensive team rebound
HOU 117·IND 114
+1pp
Q4·3.8
Amen Thompson misses free throw 1 of 2
HOU 117·IND 114
+0.8pp
Q4·3.8
Bennedict Mathurin personal take foul
HOU 117·IND 114
−4pp
Q4·6.0
Alperen Sengun offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
HOU 117·IND 114
−8pp
Q4·8.0
Alperen Sengun misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
HOU 117·IND 114
+7pp
Q4·8.0
Tari Eason enters the game for Aaron Holiday
·
HOU 117·IND 114
Q4·8.0
Jae'Sean Tate enters the game for Reed Sheppard
· ·
HOU 117·IND 114
Q4·8.0
Rockets offensive team rebound
HOU 117·IND 114
+2pp
Q4·8.0
Alperen Sengun misses free throw 1 of 2
HOU 117·IND 114
+2pp
Q4·8.0
Isaiah Jackson personal take foulBIG MOMENT
HOU 117·IND 114
−7pp
Q4·16.1
Aaron Holiday enters the game for Jae'Sean Tate
·
HOU 117·IND 114
Q4·16.1
Reed Sheppard enters the game for Tari Eason
· ·
HOU 117·IND 114
Q4·16.1
Rockets offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
HOU 117·IND 114
−7pp
Q4·18.8
Amen Thompson misses 14-foot fade away jump shot
HOU 117·IND 114
+3pp
Q4·40.0
Bennedict Mathurin makes 1-foot running dunk (Andrew Nembhard assists)
·
HOU 117·IND 114
+4pp
Q4·43.6
Alperen Sengun lost ball turnover (Isaiah Jackson steals)
·
HOU 117·IND 112
+3pp
Q4·1:01
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
HOU 117·IND 112
−1pp
Q4·1:05
Aaron Nesmith misses 26-foot three point jumper
HOU 117·IND 112
−4pp
Q4·1:16
Jae'Sean Tate makes two point shot
HOU 117·IND 112
−5pp
Q4·1:16
Jae'Sean Tate offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
HOU 115·IND 112
−6pp
Q4·1:18
Aaron Nesmith blocks Amen Thompson 's 4-foot driving layupBIG MOMENT
·
HOU 115·IND 112
+5pp

Betting line

HOU -6.5·O/U 218.5·HOU -250/IND +205

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ouston Rockets went into Indiana Pacers and beat them, 118–114. Decided by 4.

IND +6.5 cashed (HOU won by 4). Total cleared the 218.5 OVER by 13.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Reed SheppardHOU · G
DEFL599+
Tari EasonHOU · F
DEFL4.599+
Andrew NembhardIND · G
TOUCHES87.498
Amen ThompsonHOU · G
TOUCHES86.298
Jay HuffIND · C
CONT8.796

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

IND vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

175

projections · 160 high confidence

Points

Kevin DurantHOU
25.3± 4.5high
Pascal SiakamIND
23.8± 7.9high
Amen ThompsonHOU
20.2± 7.7high

Rebounds

Alperen SengunHOU
9.4± 3.5high
Steven AdamsHOU
8.6± 2.2high
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU
7.4± 2.5high

Assists

Andrew NembhardIND
8.5± 4.7high
Tyrese HaliburtonIND
8.1± 4.3high
T.J. McConnellIND
6.2± 3.1high

Blocks

Jay HuffIND
1.9± 1.9high
Alperen SengunHOU
1.1± 0.7high
Kevin DurantHOU
1.0± 1.1high

Steals

Marcus SmartHOU
2.1± 1.8high
Amen ThompsonHOU
1.9± 1.3high
Tari EasonHOU
1.8± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

HOU

league avg

IND

53.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

53.3%

47.4%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.8%

114.1

PPG

◀

114.9

112.4

25.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.7

14.3

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR