NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+43MIA

CHI

24-26

91134

MIA

27-24

NBASun, Feb 1FinalSeriesMIA leads series 3-1VegasMIA -5.5

CHI · top performer

Dalen Terry

F · #7

8.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIA · top performer

Bam Adebayo

C · #13

21.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCHI ↔ MIA

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
I. OkoroF · #35	25	9	3-7	0-3	3-4	-32	3	0
M. BuzelisF · #14	21	2	1-7	0-5	—	-37	3	2
N. VucevicC · #9	22	12	5-12	0-3	2-2	-37	2	1
C. WhiteG · #0	30	16	4-13	0-6	8-8	-42	4	3
A. DosunmuG · #11	26	10	3-9	1-4	3-3	-46	6	1
Bench
P. WilliamsF · #44	28	9	3-12	0-7	3-4	-8	10	1
D. TerryF · #7	28	8	3-7	2-3	0-1	-5	6	3
J. PhillipsF · #15	23	10	3-11	2-5	2-2	-11	3	0
Y. KawamuraG · #8	27	6	1-4	0-3	4-4	+2	6	6
Olbrich	--	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
Team		91	28-87	6-41	29-34		47	18
DNP: K. Huerter, T. Jones

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. WigginsF · #22	24	14	5-12	1-4	3-3	+31	3	4
S. FontecchioF · #0	18	2	1-5	0-2	—	+24	7	4
B. AdebayoC · #13	22	20	8-11	2-3	2-4	+26	9	3
D. MitchellG · #45	21	13	5-9	3-5	—	+34	2	6
P. LarssonG · #9	24	20	8-11	3-4	1-2	+33	4	4
Bench
M. GardnerF · #15	23	5	2-7	1-3	—	+13	7	2
K. JohnsonF · #16	12	9	3-5	1-2	2-2	+4	4	1
J. Jaquez Jr.F · #11	19	14	6-15	1-3	1-1	+9	5	1
V. GoldinC · #50	7	4	2-2	—	—	-8	1	1
K. WareC · #7	18	17	8-15	1-5	—	+25	6	1
D. SmithG · #12	21	10	3-7	1-4	3-4	+18	4	6
J. YoungG · #17	10	2	1-3	0-1	—	0	1	2
K. JakucionisG · #25	19	4	2-5	0-2	0-1	+6	1	9
Team		134	54-107	14-38	12-17		54	44
DNP: N. Jovic, N. Powell

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CHI

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

28-87

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

54-107

FG %

6-41

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-38

29-34

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

12-17

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MIA leads series 3-1

Nov 22

MIA143@

CHI107

Jan 9

MIA0@

CHI0

Jan 30

MIA116@

CHI113

Feb 1

CHI125@

MIA118

Feb 1

CHI91@

MIA134today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIA -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

233.5

High-scoring · +7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHI+18036%

MIA-21869%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIA -5.5↗SpreadBet MIA -5.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

233.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIA beat CHI 134-91. B. Adebayo led with 20 PTS, 9 REB, 3 AST. MIA outscored the other side 34-13 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIA vs CHI

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CHIstarters 60% of pts

Starters(5)

49 PTS · 18 REB · 7 AST

GS 20

Bench(5)

33 PTS · 25 REB · 10 AST

GS 28

MIAstarters 51% of pts

Starters(5)

69 PTS · 25 REB · 21 AST

GS 71

Bench(8)

65 PTS · 29 REB · 23 AST

GS 55

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CHI	13	27	22	29	91
MIA	34	28	39	33	134

Period scoring

CHI won 0 · MIA won 4

White 5

Larsson 13

White 6

Smith 20

Vucevic 8

Wiggins 43

Olbrich 9

Olbrich 48

CHI

MIA

Shooting comparison

CHI

MIA

32%

28-87

50%

54-107

15%

6-41

3PT

37%

14-38

85%

29-34

71%

12-17

Play-by-play · 509 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHI 91·MIA 134
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHI 91·MIA 134
Q4·1.5
shot clock turnover
CHI 91·MIA 134
Q4·23.3
Kasparas Jakucionis defensive rebound
CHI 91·MIA 134
Q4·26.0
Lachlan Olbrich misses 27-foot three point jumper
CHI 91·MIA 134
Q4·37.1
Jahmir Young makes driving layup (Kasparas Jakucionis assists)
·
CHI 91·MIA 134
Q4·53.3
Patrick Williams makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 91·MIA 132
Q4·53.3
Bulls offensive team rebound
CHI 90·MIA 132
Q4·53.3
Patrick Williams misses free throw 1 of 2
CHI 90·MIA 132
Q4·53.3
Vladislav Goldin shooting foul
CHI 90·MIA 132
Q4·57.7
Lachlan Olbrich defensive rebound
CHI 90·MIA 132
Q4·1:00
Lachlan Olbrich blocks Kasparas Jakucionis 's 2-foot layup
·
CHI 90·MIA 132
Q4·1:21
Lachlan Olbrich makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 90·MIA 132
Q4·1:21
Bulls offensive team rebound
CHI 89·MIA 132
Q4·1:21
Lachlan Olbrich misses free throw 1 of 2
CHI 89·MIA 132
Q4·1:21
Vladislav Goldin shooting foul
CHI 89·MIA 132
Q4·1:27
Vladislav Goldin makes 1-foot hook shot (Kasparas Jakucionis assists)
·
CHI 89·MIA 132
Q4·1:39
Yuki Kawamura makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 89·MIA 130
Q4·1:39
Yuki Kawamura makes free throw 1 of 2
CHI 88·MIA 130
Q4·1:39
Jahmir Young shooting foul
CHI 87·MIA 130
Q4·1:46
Dalen Terry defensive rebound
CHI 87·MIA 130
Q4·1:47
Keshad Johnson misses tip shot
CHI 87·MIA 130
Q4·1:48
Keshad Johnson offensive rebound
CHI 87·MIA 130
Q4·1:50
Myron Gardner misses 7-foot pullup jump shot
CHI 87·MIA 130
Q4·2:01
Julian Phillips makes 22-foot three point jumper (Patrick Williams assists)
·
CHI 87·MIA 130
Q4·2:07
Patrick Williams defensive rebound
CHI 84·MIA 130
Q4·2:10
Jahmir Young misses driving layup
CHI 84·MIA 130
Q4·2:21
Lachlan Olbrich personal foul
CHI 84·MIA 130
Q4·2:31
Dalen Terry makes 22-foot three point jumper (Lachlan Olbrich assists)
·
CHI 84·MIA 130
Q4·2:42
Lachlan Olbrich defensive rebound
CHI 81·MIA 130

Betting line

MIA -5.5·O/U 233.5·CHI +180/MIA -218

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

iami Heat held off Chicago Bulls, 134–91. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

MIA -5.5 cashed (won by 43). Total stayed UNDER 233.5 by 8.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIL · F
DRIVES13.295
Matas BuzelisCHI · F
CONT7.995
Coby WhiteCHA · G
USG%29.195
Andrew WigginsMIA · F
CONT7.693
Bam AdebayoMIA · C
CONT6.891

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CHI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIA vs CHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 125 high confidence

Points

Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
25.0± 4.5high
Norman PowellCHI
18.4± 5.3high
Bam AdebayoMIA
18.4± 7.8high

Rebounds

Bam AdebayoMIA
10.3± 3.7high
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
9.9± 4.4high
Josh GiddeyCHI
8.1± 4.3high

Assists

Josh GiddeyCHI
9.9± 4.4high
Davion MitchellMIA
5.9± 2.8high
Tre JonesCHI
5.2± 2.9high

Blocks

Matas BuzelisCHI
1.5± 1.4high
Jalen SmithCHI
0.9± 1.0high
Josh GiddeyCHI
0.9± 1.0high

Steals

Dru SmithMIA
1.3± 1.8high
Bam AdebayoMIA
1.2± 0.8high
Josh GiddeyCHI
1.1± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CHI

league avg

MIA

54.7%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

54.2%

46.9%

FG%

47.0

46.8%

116.3

PPG

114.9

▶

120.9

28.5

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.0

14.6

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR