NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+28BOS

MIL

18-29

79107

BOS

31-18

NBASun, Feb 1FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasBOS -12.5

MIL · top performer

Ryan Rollins

G · #13

21.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

BOS · top performer

Jaylen Brown

G · #7

22.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIL ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 9pp · 2nd Quarter · 1:22

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. PortisF · #9	37	8	4-13	0-2	—	-13	12	3
K. KuzmaF · #18	34	16	5-13	2-4	4-6	-1	5	2
M. TurnerC · #3	26	7	2-8	1-4	2-2	-21	4	1
A. GreenG · #20	29	3	1-5	1-5	—	-27	2	1
R. RollinsG · #13	36	25	10-16	3-4	2-4	-15	6	7
Bench
T. AntetokounmpoF · #43	3	0	—	—	—	0	2	0
P. NanceF · #35	18	7	3-6	1-3	—	-16	4	0
J. SimsC · #00	4	2	1-1	—	—	-4	0	0
A. CoffeyG · #17	4	0	—	—	—	-4	0	0
G. Trent Jr.G · #5	25	9	2-8	2-7	3-3	-18	1	0
A. Jackson Jr.G · #44	8	0	0-5	0-3	—	-5	2	0
C. AnthonyG · #50	15	2	1-7	0-2	—	-16	2	3
Team		79	29-82	10-34	11-15		40	17

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
S. HauserF · #30	27	3	1-9	1-7	—	+20	1	1
N. QuetaC · #88	31	14	7-10	—	—	+17	8	4
D. WhiteG · #9	32	17	6-14	3-7	2-2	+27	7	8
J. BrownG · #7	29	30	12-20	4-6	2-3	+16	13	2
P. PritchardG · #11	27	7	2-8	1-4	2-2	+10	3	5
Bench
J. MinottF · #8	1	0	—	—	—	-3	0	0
A. WilliamsF · #77	4	0	—	—	—	+4	1	0
L. GarzaC · #52	13	3	1-2	0-1	1-2	+7	2	0
A. SimonsG · #4	25	27	10-18	6-10	1-1	+10	3	1
B. ScheiermanG · #55	13	0	0-2	0-1	—	+13	4	0
J. WalshG · #27	20	6	2-6	0-3	2-3	+8	5	3
H. GonzalezG · #28	17	0	0-3	0-3	—	+11	5	0
Team		107	41-92	15-42	10-13		52	24
DNP: C. Boucher, X. Tillman

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

29-82

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

41-92

FG %

10-34

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

15-42

11-15

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

10-13

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 12

BOS101@

MIL116

Feb 1

MIL79@

BOS107today

Mar 3

BOS108@

MIL81

Apr 4

BOS133@

MIL101

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -12.5

Between 10 and —

Total

217.5

Defensive · -8.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIL+45518%

BOS-62586%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -12.5↗SpreadBet BOS -12.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

12.5

0.0 since open

Total

217.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BOS beat MIL 107-79. J. Brown paced them with 30 PTS, 13 REB, 2 AST. BOS outscored the other side 30-16 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

BOS vs MIL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MILstarters 75% of pts

Starters(5)

59 PTS · 29 REB · 14 AST

GS 42

Bench(7)

20 PTS · 11 REB · 3 AST

GS 7

BOSstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

71 PTS · 32 REB · 20 AST

GS 57

Bench(7)

36 PTS · 20 REB · 4 AST

GS 30

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

BOS2nd Quarter · 1:22 · 42-50

+9pp→ 89% WP

Ryan Rollins · misses 16-foot step back jumpshot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIL	26	16	19	18	79
BOS	26	30	22	29	107

Period scoring

MIL won 0 · BOS won 3

Rollins 12

Simons 11

Nance 4

Pritchard 7

Rollins 9

Brown 12

Jr. 6

Simons 34

MIL

BOS

Shooting comparison

MIL

BOS

35%

29-82

45%

41-92

29%

10-34

3PT

36%

15-42

73%

11-15

77%

10-13

Play-by-play · 441 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIL 79·BOS 107
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIL 79·BOS 107
Q4·1.3
shot clock turnover
MIL 79·BOS 107
Q4·27.7
Hugo Gonzalez defensive rebound
MIL 79·BOS 107
Q4·28.7
Gary Trent Jr. misses 26-foot three point jumper
MIL 79·BOS 107
Q4·29.4
Thanasis Antetokounmpo offensive rebound
MIL 79·BOS 107
Q4·32.3
Andre Jackson Jr. misses 22-foot three point jumper
MIL 79·BOS 107
Q4·47.9
Thanasis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound
MIL 79·BOS 107
Q4·50.9
Jordan Walsh misses 25-foot three point jumper
MIL 79·BOS 107
Q4·1:06
Gary Trent Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cole Anthony assists)
·
MIL 79·BOS 107
Q4·1:09
Cole Anthony offensive rebound
MIL 76·BOS 107
Q4·1:10
Jordan Walsh blocks Cole Anthony 's 4-foot layup
·
MIL 76·BOS 107
Q4·1:20
Josh Minott enters the game for Anfernee Simons
·
MIL 76·BOS 107
Q4·1:20
Hugo Gonzalez steps out of bounds turnover
MIL 76·BOS 107
Q4·1:32
Celtics defensive team rebound
MIL 76·BOS 107
Q4·1:34
Andre Jackson Jr. misses 25-foot three point jumper
MIL 76·BOS 107
Q4·1:48
Anfernee Simons makes 28-foot three point jumper
MIL 76·BOS 107
Q4·1:50
Anfernee Simons offensive rebound
MIL 76·BOS 104
Q4·1:53
Baylor Scheierman misses 30-foot three point jumper
MIL 76·BOS 104
Q4·2:03
Jordan Walsh offensive rebound
MIL 76·BOS 104
Q4·2:08
Hugo Gonzalez misses 26-foot three point jumper
MIL 76·BOS 104
Q4·2:18
Baylor Scheierman defensive rebound
MIL 76·BOS 104
Q4·2:21
Gary Trent Jr. misses 18-foot pullup jump shot
MIL 76·BOS 104
Q4·2:32
Thanasis Antetokounmpo enters the game for AJ Green
·
MIL 76·BOS 104
Q4·2:32
Hugo Gonzalez personal foul
MIL 76·BOS 104
Q4·2:39
Andre Jackson Jr. defensive rebound
MIL 76·BOS 104
Q4·2:43
Jordan Walsh misses 22-foot three point jumper
MIL 76·BOS 104
Q4·2:46
Amari Williams offensive rebound
MIL 76·BOS 104
Q4·2:49
Baylor Scheierman misses 13-foot pullup jump shot
MIL 76·BOS 104
Q4·3:10
Jericho Sims makes 2-foot dunk (Cole Anthony assists)
·
MIL 76·BOS 104

Betting line

BOS -12.5·O/U 217.5·MIL +455/BOS -625

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

oston Celtics held off Milwaukee Bucks, 107–79. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

BOS -12.5 cashed (won by 28). Total stayed UNDER 217.5 by 31.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Jericho SimsMIL · C
TS%77.299+
Ryan RollinsMIL · G
DEFL4.098
Neemias QuetaBOS · C
CONT9.197
Luka GarzaBOS · C
TS%68.296
Myles TurnerMIL · C
CONT8.195

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MIL

league avg

BOS

56.5%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

55.1%

47.7%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.5%

110.6

PPG

114.9

▶

114.2

25.8

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.6

14.5

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

11.5

Data via ESPN · hoopR