NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4HOU

DAL

19-30

107111

HOU

30-17

NBASat, Jan 31FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasHOU -10.5

DAL · top performer

Cooper Flagg

F · #32

26.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

HOU · top performer

Amen Thompson

G · #1

25.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDAL ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 12pp · 4th Quarter · 28.6

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. GaffordF · #21	28	16	7-10	—	2-2	+1	11	1
P.J. WashingtonF · #25	25	9	4-9	0-1	1-3	-12	4	1
N. MarshallF · #13	32	8	3-11	0-1	2-6	-18	8	2
C. FlaggF · #32	39	34	13-25	1-4	7-10	+2	12	5
M. ChristieG · #00	32	11	4-11	3-4	—	-7	2	1
Bench
D. PowellF · #7	6	0	0-1	—	—	-12	3	0
C. MartinF · #16	17	4	1-4	1-1	1-2	+7	4	5
M. CisseC · #30	13	3	1-1	—	1-2	+7	1	1
K. ThompsonG · #31	28	9	3-9	3-7	—	+7	2	0
B. WilliamsG · #10	9	13	5-7	2-3	1-1	+3	0	0
R. NembhardG · #9	11	0	0-4	0-2	—	+2	1	3
Team		107	41-92	10-23	15-26		48	19
DNP: D. Russell, J. Hardy

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. DurantF · #7	38	13	6-17	1-4	—	+1	5	8
J. Smith Jr.F · #10	33	19	7-13	3-5	2-2	+12	8	2
T. EasonF · #17	31	17	7-15	3-5	—	+5	7	3
A. SengunC · #28	35	14	6-20	—	2-4	-3	14	7
A. ThompsonG · #1	41	21	7-15	—	7-9	+15	8	9
Bench
D. Finney-SmithF · #2	10	2	1-3	0-2	—	-12	1	1
C. CapelaC · #30	13	6	3-6	—	—	+5	4	1
J. OkogieG · #20	21	13	5-11	3-6	—	+1	5	1
R. SheppardG · #15	17	6	3-8	0-4	—	-4	1	1
Team		111	45-108	10-26	11-15		53	33
DNP: J. Green, J. Tate, I. Crawford, A. Holiday

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

41-92

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

45-108

FG %

10-23

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-26

15-26

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

11-15

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Nov 4

DAL102@

HOU110

Dec 7

HOU109@

DAL122

Jan 4

HOU104@

DAL110

Feb 1

DAL107@

HOU111today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -10.5

Half-pt above key 10

Total

222.5

Standard · -3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DAL+33023%

HOU-42581%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -10.5↗SpreadBet HOU -10.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

10.5

0.0 since open

Total

222.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

HOU beat DAL 111-107. A. Thompson led with 21 PTS, 8 REB, 9 AST.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

HOU vs DAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DALstarters 73% of pts

Starters(5)

78 PTS · 37 REB · 10 AST

GS 55

Bench(6)

29 PTS · 11 REB · 9 AST

GS 21

HOUstarters 76% of pts

Starters(5)

84 PTS · 42 REB · 29 AST

GS 78

Bench(4)

27 PTS · 11 REB · 4 AST

GS 21

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

HOU4th Quarter · 1:03 · 105-107

+12pp→ 75% WP

Jabari Smith Jr. · kicked ball violation

HOU4th Quarter · 28.6 · 107-109

+12pp→ 65% WP

Alperen Sengun · makes driving layup

HOU4th Quarter · 25.0 · 107-109

+11pp→ 76% WP

Cooper Flagg · misses driving layup

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DAL	28	23	31	25	107
HOU	31	28	28	24	111

Period scoring

DAL won 2 · HOU won 2

Williams 13

Eason 7

Gafford 8

Jr. 10

Flagg 11

Eason 11

Flagg 10

Thompson 7

DAL

HOU

Shooting comparison

DAL

HOU

45%

41-92

42%

45-108

43%

10-23

3PT

38%

10-26

58%

15-26

73%

11-15

Play-by-play · 497 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DAL 107·HOU 111
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DAL 107·HOU 111
+3pp
Q4·7.1
Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
DAL 107·HOU 111
+2pp
Q4·9.0
Cooper Flagg misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
DAL 107·HOU 111
+6pp
Q4·14.4
Mavericks Full timeout
DAL 107·HOU 111
Q4·14.4
Tari Eason makes 3-foot dunk (Kevin Durant assists)BIG MOMENT
·
DAL 107·HOU 111
+10pp
Q4·24.4
Tari Eason defensive rebound
DAL 107·HOU 109
+4pp
Q4·25.0
Cooper Flagg misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
DAL 107·HOU 109
+11pp
Q4·28.6
Josh Okogie enters the game for Alperen Sengun
·
DAL 107·HOU 109
Q4·28.6
Mavericks Full timeout
DAL 107·HOU 109
Q4·28.6
Alperen Sengun makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
DAL 107·HOU 109
+12pp
Q4·47.0
Naji Marshall makes 12-foot pullup jump shot (Max Christie assists)BIG MOMENT
·
DAL 107·HOU 107
−11pp
Q4·49.4
Naji Marshall offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
DAL 105·HOU 107
−10pp
Q4·50.0
Cooper Flagg misses 17-foot pullup jump shot
DAL 105·HOU 107
−2pp
Q4·1:03
Jabari Smith Jr. kicked ball violationBIG MOMENT
DAL 105·HOU 107
+12pp
Q4·1:08
Cooper Flagg defensive rebound
DAL 105·HOU 107
−3pp
Q4·1:11
Amen Thompson misses two point shotBIG MOMENT
·
DAL 105·HOU 107
−9pp
Q4·1:11
Amen Thompson offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
·
DAL 105·HOU 107
+9pp
Q4·1:12
Max Christie blocks Alperen Sengun 's 4-foot driving layupBIG MOMENT
·
DAL 105·HOU 107
−9pp
Q4·1:34
Cooper Flagg makes 5-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
DAL 105·HOU 107
−6pp
Q4·1:54
Amen Thompson makes 3-foot alley oop dunk (Alperen Sengun assists)BIG MOMENT
· ·
DAL 103·HOU 107
+7pp
Q4·2:14
Daniel Gafford makes 3-foot dunkBIG MOMENT
DAL 103·HOU 105
−6pp
Q4·2:25
Cooper Flagg defensive rebound
DAL 101·HOU 105
−1pp
Q4·2:26
Kevin Durant misses 25-foot three point jumper
DAL 101·HOU 105
−4pp
Q4·2:37
Daniel Gafford makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 101·HOU 105
+4pp
Q4·2:37
Daniel Gafford makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 100·HOU 105
−1pp
Q4·2:37
Tari Eason personal foulBIG MOMENT
DAL 99·HOU 105
−7pp
Q4·2:44
Max Christie defensive rebound
DAL 99·HOU 105
−0.8pp
Q4·2:47
Kevin Durant misses 13-foot pullup jump shot
DAL 99·HOU 105
−2pp
Q4·3:05
Cooper Flagg makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 99·HOU 105
+3pp

Betting line

HOU -10.5·O/U 222.5·DAL +330/HOU -425

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ouston Rockets held off Dallas Mavericks, 111–107. Decided by 4.

DAL +10.5 cashed (HOU won by 4). Total stayed UNDER 222.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Tari EasonHOU · F
DEFL4.599+
Dwight PowellDAL · F
TS%69.999
Amen ThompsonHOU · G
TOUCHES86.298
Daniel GaffordDAL · F
TS%67.796
Alperen SengunHOU · C
CONT8.296

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · DAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DAL

league avg

HOU

52.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

53.7%

46.6%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.4%

114.1

PPG

114.9

114.1

25.3

Assists / G

25.0

25.1

14.0

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.3

Data via ESPN · hoopR