NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+7DET

DET

35-12

131124

27-23

NBAFri, Jan 30FinalSeriesDET leads series 1-0VegasGS -2.5

DET · top performer

Cade Cunningham

G · #2

25.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

GS · top performer

Gui Santos

F · #15

15.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDET ↔ GS

Biggest swing: 24pp · 3rd Quarter · 8:32

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. HarrisF · #12	34	15	3-10	0-2	9-9	-2	8	3
D. RobinsonF · #55	30	15	5-11	5-10	—	-1	2	2
J. DurenC · #0	30	21	7-14	—	7-10	+9	13	3
C. CunninghamG · #2	35	29	11-19	2-4	5-6	+1	4	11
A. ThompsonG · #9	29	7	3-10	—	1-4	+3	8	2
Bench
I. StewartF · #28	24	14	7-10	0-2	—	+2	5	3
R. Holland IIF · #5	16	6	2-5	0-2	2-2	+3	4	1
J. GreenG · #31	8	3	1-1	1-1	—	+5	3	0
J. IveyG · #23	18	9	3-7	1-3	2-2	+8	4	2
D. JenkinsG · #24	17	12	4-8	1-2	3-3	+7	2	4
Team		131	46-95	10-26	29-36		53	31
DNP: P. Reed, B. Klintman, M. Sasser, C. Lanier

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. GreenF · #23	33	15	5-10	4-9	1-1	+2	6	7
A. HorfordC · #20	23	13	5-9	1-4	2-2	-11	7	3
S. CurryG · #30	25	23	7-16	4-10	5-5	-5	1	2
M. MoodyG · #4	25	11	3-8	3-6	2-6	-3	4	0
B. PodziemskiG · #2	28	11	1-8	1-4	8-9	-7	8	8
Bench
G. SantosF · #15	25	16	7-9	2-3	0-1	-2	1	1
Q. PostC · #21	14	6	1-6	0-4	4-4	-6	2	1
B. HieldG · #7	17	10	4-10	2-7	0-2	+1	4	2
D. MeltonG · #8	26	18	7-13	1-4	3-3	-3	5	3
P. SpencerG · #61	8	1	—	—	1-2	+7	2	3
W. RichardG · #3	15	0	0-1	0-1	—	-8	2	1
Team		124	40-90	18-52	26-35		42	31
DNP: T. Jackson-Davis, G. Payton II

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

Home

46-95

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

40-90

FG %

10-26

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

18-52

29-36

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

26-35

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

DET leads series 1-0

Jan 31

DET131@

GS124today

Mar 20

GS101@

DET115

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

GS -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

226.5

Standard · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DET+11048%

GS-13057%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet GS -2.5↗SpreadBet GS -2.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

226.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DET beat GS 131-124. C. Cunningham paced them with 29 PTS, 4 REB, 11 AST. DET outscored the other side 45-37 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

GS vs DET

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DETstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

87 PTS · 35 REB · 21 AST

GS 74

Bench(5)

44 PTS · 18 REB · 10 AST

GS 42

GSstarters 59% of pts

Starters(5)

73 PTS · 26 REB · 20 AST

GS 58

Bench(6)

51 PTS · 16 REB · 11 AST

GS 41

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DET3rd Quarter · 8:32 · 88-71

+24pp→ 95% WP

Moses Moody · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)

GS4th Quarter · 3:00 · 124-118

+10pp→ 23% WP

Cade Cunningham · shooting foul

DET4th Quarter · 2:09 · 125-120

+13pp→ 94% WP

Daniss Jenkins · makes free throw 1 of 2

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DET	45	32	31	23	131
GS	37	27	31	29	124

Period scoring

DET won 2 · GS won 1

Robinson 12

Curry 10

Stewart 10

Santos 9

Cunningham 10

Moody 13

Cunningham 6

Spencer 18

DET

Shooting comparison

DET

48%

46-95

44%

40-90

38%

10-26

3PT

35%

18-52

81%

29-36

74%

26-35

Play-by-play · 542 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DET 131·GS 124
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DET 131·GS 124
Q4·3.4
Ausar Thompson enters the game for Duncan Robinson
·
DET 131·GS 124
−0.8pp
Q4·3.4
Tobias Harris makes free throw 2 of 2
DET 131·GS 124
Q4·3.4
Tobias Harris makes free throw 1 of 2
DET 130·GS 124
Q4·3.4
Quinten Post enters the game for Draymond Green
· ·
DET 129·GS 124
Q4·3.4
Draymond Green personal foul
·
DET 129·GS 124
−0.8pp
Q4·6.9
Draymond Green enters the game for Buddy Hield
· ·
DET 129·GS 124
−1pp
Q4·6.9
Cade Cunningham vs. Moses Moody (Tobias Harris gains possession)
· ·
DET 129·GS 124
−0.8pp
Q4·11.7
Cade Cunningham defensive rebound
DET 129·GS 124
Q4·13.9
Duncan Robinson enters the game for Ausar Thompson
·
DET 129·GS 124
Q4·13.9
Moses Moody enters the game for Draymond Green
· ·
DET 129·GS 124
+2pp
Q4·13.9
Buddy Hield misses free throw 2 of 2
DET 129·GS 124
−3pp
Q4·13.9
Warriors offensive team rebound
DET 129·GS 124
−4pp
Q4·13.9
Buddy Hield misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
DET 129·GS 124
−5pp
Q4·13.9
Daniss Jenkins personal foulBIG MOMENT
DET 129·GS 124
+7pp
Q4·22.8
Draymond Green defensive rebound
·
DET 129·GS 124
Q4·24.9
Jalen Duren misses free throw 2 of 2
DET 129·GS 124
+4pp
Q4·24.9
Ausar Thompson enters the game for Duncan Robinson
·
DET 129·GS 124
Q4·24.9
Pistons offensive team rebound
DET 129·GS 124
+2pp
Q4·24.9
Jalen Duren misses free throw 1 of 2
DET 129·GS 124
+1pp
Q4·24.9
Draymond Green personal take foul
·
DET 129·GS 124
−3pp
Q4·25.8
Duncan Robinson enters the game for Ausar Thompson
·
DET 129·GS 124
Q4·25.8
Gui Santos enters the game for Al Horford
·
DET 129·GS 124
Q4·25.8
Pistons Full timeout
DET 129·GS 124
−1pp
Q4·38.7
Tobias Harris defensive rebound
DET 129·GS 124
−2pp
Q4·43.1
Brandin Podziemski misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
DET 129·GS 124
−6pp
Q4·59.3
De'Anthony Melton defensive rebound
DET 129·GS 124
Q4·1:02
Cade Cunningham misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
DET 129·GS 124
+8pp
Q4·1:02
Ausar Thompson enters the game for Duncan Robinson
·
DET 129·GS 124

Betting line

GS -2.5·O/U 226.5·DET +110/GS -130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

etroit Pistons went into Golden State Warriors and beat them, 131–124.

DET +2.5 cashed (GS lost outright). Total cleared the 226.5 OVER by 28.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Cade CunninghamDET · G
TOUCHES9799+
Jalen DurenDET · C
TS%68.898
Stephen CurryGS · G
USG%31.597
Ausar ThompsonDET · G
DEFL3.596
Draymond GreenGS · F
CONT7.593

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

GS vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Cade CunninghamDET
26.1± 9.6high
Stephen CurryGS
25.2± 8.3high
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
20.4± 6.0high

Rebounds

Jalen DurenDET
9.1± 3.9high
John CollinsDET
5.8± 2.5high
Kristaps PorzingisGS
5.6± 2.4high

Assists

Cade CunninghamDET
8.2± 2.8high
Draymond GreenGS
6.6± 3.0high
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
4.8± 1.7high

Blocks

Al HorfordGS
1.1± 1.3high
Jalen DurenDET
1.0± 1.1high
Paul ReedDET
0.9± 1.3high

Steals

De'Anthony MeltonGS
1.5± 1.4high
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
1.5± 1.3high
Cade CunninghamDET
1.4± 1.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DET

league avg

54.2%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.1%

48.0%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.2%

115.9

PPG

◀

114.9

114.5

27.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

28.8

14.3

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR